change control risk

How to Conduct Change Management Risk Assessment

Are you preparing to transition your organization or team through a period of significant change?

With any change comes some inherent risk, which can be both exciting and anxiety provoking.

To ensure the success of such an endeavor it’s important to plan for, mitigate and manage risks as they arise throughout the process.

In this blogpost we’ll discuss why business leaders and managers needs to pay attention to potential risks and learn how to conduct change management risk assessment in order to execute a successful transition.

What is Change Management Risk?

The factors which can negatively affect achieving desired change outcome, primarily due to insufficient planning or lack of change-readiness among stakeholders.

Change management risk can lead to delays in implementation and results, increased costs and compromised quality standards, ultimately impacting an organization’s bottom line.

It is essential for organizations to mitigate change management risks by creating a clear change strategy with well-defined objectives, monitoring change goals and gathering feedback from stakeholders along the way.

Why it is important to identify change management risk?

Change is inherent in any business, and change management can be challenging. Adequately assessing change management risks helps to minimize unexpected outcomes, increases efficiency and effectiveness, and bolsters the flexibility of organizational processes.

It is essential that organizations acknowledge the need to identify change management risks, as failure to do so may lead to project delays, budget overruns and costly repair work.

By critically diagnosing change management risk associated with specific projects or events, an organization is better equipped to develop tailored strategies for successful change implementation. Ultimately, change management risk identification is a critical step for ensuring key change objectives are met on time and within budget.

Change Management Risk Assessment

Change management risk assessment is a crucial process for organizations to mitigate the risks associated with change. It involves looking at potential change initiatives, and examining how they may affect an organization’s resources and operations.

The results of change management risk assessment allow us to make well-informed decisions on the implementation and potential success of change initiatives.

To successfully complete change management risk assessment, it is important to determine objectives, analyze relevant data sources, identify risks and their root causes, and create viable response plans.

This is ultimately done through establishing processes that help organizations develop stability during a time of transition, enabling them to achieve successful outcomes more efficiently.

04 Steps to Conduct Change Management Risk Assessment

In order to conduct change management risk assessment, there are several key steps that need to be taken.

Step 1: Define change management risk assessment framework

It is important to have a clear understanding of what the change initiative is aiming to accomplish, as this will inform the risk assessment process. During this step, it is also important to establish a change management risk assessment framework. This framework should provide the foundation for identifying change management risks and understanding their potential impact on the organization.

The change management risk assessment framework should be tailored to the specific change initiative and take into account any existing organizational change processes. This will ensure that all stakeholders are fully aware of the change objectives, can recognize change management risks, and have an understanding of the steps needed to effectively address risk.

Step 2: Analyze data

The second step to conducting change management risk assessment is to analyze data sources. This involves gathering information from a variety of sources such as internal documents, reports, and interviews with stakeholders. It is important to identify the key change components and assess their potential impacts in order to recognize change management risks.

Through data analysis, organizations can gain greater insight into change management risks and their impacts on their operations. Data analysis allows organizations to identify change management risks and the underlying causes, evaluate the solutions available to them, and make informed decisions when managing change initiatives.

Step 3: Identify and analyze risks

The third step to conducting change management risk assessment is to analyze the change management risks identified. This involves understanding their root causes and evaluating their potential impacts on the organization. It is important to identify any assumptions, dependencies, or interdependencies that could affect change management risk assessment outcomes.

Organizations should also assess whether existing change processes are adequate enough toeffectively manage change risk. This includes considering the impact that change initiatives will have on existing structures, processes and systems, as well as understanding the resources available to address change risks.

Step 4: Develop response plans

The next step to conducting change management risk assessment is to develop response plans. This involves formulating strategies and tactics to mitigate change risks, as well as determining possible contingencies in the event that change initiatives do not succeed. During this stage, organizations should identify resources necessary for successful change implementation, such as personnel and technology.

It is important to prioritize change management risks in order to ensure that the most critical risks are addressed first. This involves understanding the potential impact of each change risk on the organization, and identifying which risks should be addressed to mitigate their effects.

What are common risks of change management

Following are some common risks of change management:

lack of understanding or buy-in from stakeholders

The lack of understanding or buy-in from stakeholders is one of the most common change management risks. This risk can arise when stakeholders are not fully aware of change objectives, or do not agree with the change initiatives being undertaken. In such cases, stakeholders may resist change initiatives or take actions that undermine their success.

Inadequate change management practices and processes

Inadequate change management practices and processes can also be a major risk to change initiatives. Organizations must ensure that change strategies are understood, agreed upon, and implemented effectively in order to maximize the chances of change success. Without an effective change management process in place, organizations may find themselves unable to adjust quickly enough to address risks.

Ineffective communication

Organzations often make mistake by having one-way communication with employees and other stakeholders. This is one of the biggest risk of change management. Change is not successful if its message is only coming from top and voices of employees or other stakeholders are unheard. If organizational culture fails to exchange ideas and share experience then it’s hard to implement transformative change.

An excessive change implementation timeline

An excessive change implementation timeline can pose a serious risk to change management, as it often leads to delays, slowdowns, and potential abandonment of change initiatives. When change initiatives take too long to implement, they can become costly and complex affairs that may not yield the desired results.

Inadequate change control measures

Inadequate change control measures are one of the most common change management risks. These typically arise when change initiatives are not reviewed and approved on a timely basis. Without proper change control mechanisms in place, change initiatives can go unchecked and progress without proper risk assessment and validation.

Misaligned change initiatives with organizational objectives

Misaligned change initiatives with organizational objectives can be a major change management risk. When change initiatives are not in alignment with the organization’s overall goals and objectives, they can lead to wasted resources, reduced efficiency, and even failure of the change initiative.

Final Words

Assessing risks is a key component of successful change management. By understanding what could go wrong and taking steps to mitigate those risks, you can increase the chances of your change initiative being successful. There are many different ways to assess risks and some common risks associated with change management initiatives include resistance to change, lack of resources etc. By taking the time to understand these risks and develop a plan to address them, you can set your change initiative up for success. Do you have a plan in place to assess risks to your change management initiative? What are some of the most common risks you’ve encountered during past initiatives?

About The Author

Tahir Abbas

Related posts.

A Guide to Conducting SWOT Analysis for Startups

What is Leavitt’s Diamond Model?

Change Management Commitment Curve – Explained

What Could Go Wrong? How to Manage Risk for Successful Change Initiatives

David Shore, instructor of Strategies for Leading Successful Change Initiatives, shares six steps to effective risk management.

David Shore

Every change initiative comes with inherent risk. But too often we shy away from exploring the potential pitfalls at the outset. If we are to succeed, however, we should embrace risk. After all, change initiatives are born from a risk analysis — a conclusion that the risk of doing nothing is higher than the risk of embarking on an experimental initiative.

When leading a change initiative, you should focus on acknowledging, anticipating, and managing risk — instead of avoiding it at all costs.

The good news is that risk management is not rocket science. Through my extensive work with change initiatives, I’ve identified six key steps to effective risk management. By following these steps on your initiative, I hope you’ll discover how embracing risk can lead to success.

Six Steps to Effective Risk Management

1. at the start, identify the risks you face..

Make a list. Formalize this process by holding a  premortem . Just as a  postmortem  enables the team to assess what went right or wrong after the fact, a  premortem  provides a space for thinking in advance about what could go wrong during the project. As you and your team brainstorm, you should cast a wide net. Consider factors intrinsic to the project and also those outside the team’s control. For example, consider the risk of potential resistance from stakeholders, which nearly always arises in change initiatives.

2. Quantify the Risks.

Not all risks are created equal. The risk of a slight delay in funding might be very different from the risk of a major partner pulling out of a joint venture. By quantifying the risk, you decrease the influence emotions can play and allow different risks to be compared. One method is to assess the risk along two dimensions: the probability of the risk occurring, and the impact the risk would have if it actually occurred. Using a scale from one to five, you can evaluate each of these dimensions for the risks you’ve identified. Then, you can multiply the two numbers to produce a risk factor from 1 to 25.

3. Establish a Risk Threshold.

Consider your initiative’s tolerance for risk and then establish a threshold. If you are not sure where to start, set your threshold at the center of your risk scale. For example, on a scale of 1 to 25, start with 12 as your threshold. Compare your quantified risks to the threshold and then spend some time thinking about the ones that exceed the threshold and then adjust as needed.

Search all Business Strategy programs.

4. Create Contingency Plans.

For each risk, engage in a thought experiment. First, think about what steps you can take, if any, to eliminate or mitigate the risk. It may be that a small adjustment to your plan will reduce the probability to zero. Second, think about what you plan to do if that possibility becomes reality — in other words, if the risk becomes an issue. Will the team be able to work around it easily? Or will the magnitude of that risk require rethinking your entire initiative? The more you plan for risks ahead of time, the better prepared you will be — and the more successful you will be in keeping your initiative on track

5. Monitor Risks over Time.

Along with the Gantt charts, status reports, dashboards, and other tools that help you assess your progress, you can also create a Risk Register (also called a Risk Log) that sets out all the risks, their risk factors, and current status. As you reach a particular milestone, perhaps one risk can be eliminated from consideration because it is no longer possible. Perhaps another risk has created an issue that needs to be dealt with. Or perhaps a new risk has been identified and should be evaluated. Your goal is to keep a close eye on risk throughout the project.

6. Consider Assigning a Risk Watcher.

You may want to identify a particular team member who has the responsibility to monitor risks and raise flags. Teams working on change initiatives are by definition optimistic. While everyone else on the team might be saying, “This will go fine,” someone needs to be able to say, “Clouds are rolling in” or “We’ve said that for the last six meetings and it hasn’t happened.”

To manage risk successfully, you need to be proactive in anticipating it. And to lead a change initiative successfully, you need to be an honest communicator. Talk with your team and with upper management about risks to the project and issues that crop up along the way. As a manager, you can improve your ability to manage risk by fostering a culture that values positive thinking while encouraging open discussions about problems.

Embracing change means embracing risk. With the right pragmatic approach, you can become a more effective change agent by understanding risk as a natural part of change — and by anticipating and managing it.

Find related Business Strategy programs.

Browse all Professional & Executive Development programs.

About the Author

Shore is an authority on change management recognized as distinguished professor at Tianjin University of Finance and Economics and 2015 Top Thought Leader in Trust.

Why Marketers Should Start Thinking Like Designers

Follow this 5-step process for applying design thinking to your marketing strategy.

Harvard Division of Continuing Education

The Division of Continuing Education (DCE) at Harvard University is dedicated to bringing rigorous academics and innovative teaching capabilities to those seeking to improve their lives through education. We make Harvard education accessible to lifelong learners from high school to retirement.

Are you a ComplianceQuest Customer?

What is Change Control?

Change Control is a systematic and structured process employed across various industries to manage modifications or alterations to a project, system, or process.

It ensures that changes are implemented in a controlled and organized manner, minimizing risks , preventing disruptions, and maintaining the overall integrity of the entity undergoing modification. Change control is particularly prominent in project management, regulatory environments, and quality management systems .

How Change Control is Critical in Project Management?

In project management, Change Controls involves a series of steps, including the identification of proposed changes, their assessment for potential impacts on scope, schedule, and budget, obtaining approvals from relevant stakeholders, and implementing approved changes in a controlled manner. This process prevents unauthorized modifications, commonly called scope creep, and helps maintain project focus.

Change control is crucial in regulated pharmaceuticals, healthcare, and manufacturing industries. For example, Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) mandates that any changes proposed or implemented to processes, equipment, or materials must undergo a rigorous control change process to ensure product quality and safety are consistently upheld. This includes assessing the impact of changes, obtaining approvals, and documenting the entire process for regulatory compliance.

Related Assets

Integrated Change Control is essential for maintaining project control, preventing scope creep, and ensuring that changes contribute positively to project…

The main difference is Change Control focuses on technical aspects, Change Management addresses the human and cultural aspects. Both are…

If you work in quality management you probably know that the effectiveness of a Quality Management System (QMS) relies extensively…

What are the Five Steps of a Change Control Process?

The five steps of a change control process are:

• Change request initiation is the first step in the change control process. It identifies and documents the proposed change. The change request should include
• A description of the change
• The reason for the change
• The impact of the change, and
• The proposed implementation plan
• Change request assessment comes once a change request has been submitted. It is done to determine its feasibility and impact. This assessment may involve
• Reviewing the change request with stakeholders
• Evaluating the potential risks and benefits
• Estimating the cost and resources required to implement the change
• Change request analysis is the next step if the change request is deemed feasible and has a positive impact. It is done to develop a detailed implementation plan. This plan should include
• Specific tasks
• Timelines, and
• Responsibilities for implementing the change
• Change request implementation happens once the change request has been approved and the implementation plan has been finalized. This involves making changes to processes, procedures, or systems. It is essential to monitor the implementation of the change to ensure that it is going smoothly without any unnecessary consequences.
• Change request closure is the last step once the change has been implemented and evaluated. This involves
• Documenting the lessons learned from the change
• Updating any relevant documentation.

What are the Benefits of a Change Control Process?

The benefits of a Change Control Process in project management are numerous and play a crucial role in ensuring the success and stability of projects. Here's an elaboration on the listed benefits:

Increased Productivity

A Control Change Process helps prevent unmanaged changes or scope creep. By formalizing, evaluating, and implementing changes, teams can stay focused on the original project objectives, avoiding unnecessary disruptions and ensuring that resources are used efficiently.

Effective Communication

Clear communication is essential in project management, especially when changes are involved. A structured Change Control Process facilitates effective communication by defining how changes are identified, assessed, and communicated to relevant stakeholders. This reduces the risk of misunderstandings.

Better Teamwork and Collaboration

The Change Control Process includes project managers, team members, and decision-makers. Collaborative decision-making ensures that changes are thoroughly evaluated from different perspectives, leading to better-informed decisions. This collaborative approach fosters teamwork and a shared responsibility for project outcomes.

Optimizing Change Management Throughout the Product Development Lifecycle

Explain change control in project management.

Change Controls in project management refers to the systematic process of managing changes to the project scope, schedule, or other project elements in a controlled and organized manner. It involves identifying, evaluating, approving, and implementing changes while minimizing potential negative impacts on the project.

Key Components of Change Control in Project Management:

Change Identification

Any proposed change to the project, whether it involves scope, schedule, or other elements, needs to be formally identified. This could come from various sources, including stakeholders, team members, or external factors.

Change Assessment

The proposed change is assessed for its impact on the project. This involves evaluating how the change may affect the project scope, timeline, budget, and other key parameters.

Change Approval

Changes are presented to relevant stakeholders, and approval is sought based on the assessment. Depending on the project's governance structure, this could involve project sponsors, clients, or other decision-makers.

Change Implementation

Once approved, the change is implemented in a controlled manner. This includes updating project plans, communicating changes to the team, and ensuring the project remains on track.

Documentation and Communication

Documentation is crucial throughout the change control process. Changes, assessments, approvals, and implementations are documented to maintain a clear record. Communication ensures that all stakeholders are informed of changes and their implications.

Change control is a proactive approach to project management that helps teams adapt to evolving circumstances while maintaining control over project parameters. It ensures that changes are carefully considered, approved by the appropriate parties, and implemented to align with project objectives. This structured process contributes to project success by preventing unmanaged changes that can lead to scope creep and project instability.

What are the Examples of Change Control Processes?

Examples of Change Control Processes:

• Software Development: In software development, a change control process may involve requests for modifying code, adding new features, or addressing bugs. Changes are typically submitted, assessed for impact, and, if approved, implemented in subsequent releases.
• Construction Project: In construction, changes to project plans, specifications, or materials may be requested. The change control process ensures that these modifications are thoroughly evaluated, approved, and communicated to the project team.
• Manufacturing: In manufacturing , changes to production processes, materials, or equipment may be proposed. The change control process ensures that these changes are assessed for their impact on product quality, and, if approved, implemented with proper documentation.

Example of Change Control in Project Management:

Imagine a construction project where the client requests a change in the design of a building's facade. The change control process would involve assessing the impact on the project timeline, budget, and other parameters. The change would be implemented if approved, and project plans would be updated accordingly.

When to use a Change Control Process?

A Change Control Process should be used in various scenarios to manage modifications to a project, product, or system in a structured and controlled manner. Here are some key situations when it is appropriate to employ a Change Control Process:

Changes in Project Scope

When there is a proposed alteration to the project scope, including additions, removals, or modifications to project deliverables.

Timeline Adjustments

When there is a need to change project timelines, deadlines, or milestones due to unforeseen circumstances or evolving project requirements.

Budgetary Changes

When there are adjustments to the project budget, including changes in resource allocation, funding, or financial constraints.

Quality Modifications

When changes are proposed that may impact the quality of the final product or service, ensuring that quality standards are maintained or improved.

Risk Mitigation

When there is a need to address identified risks or mitigate potential issues that could affect the project's success.

Stakeholder Requests

When stakeholders, clients, or end-users request modifications to the project that were not initially included in the plan.

Regulatory Compliance

When changes are required to ensure compliance with new regulations or standards affecting the project.

Technology or Process Changes

When there are proposed alterations to the technology, tools, or processes used in the project or organization.

Environmental Factors

When external factors such as market conditions, industry trends, or geopolitical events necessitate adjustments to the project.

Error Correction

When errors or issues are identified during project execution, corrections or modifications are needed to rectify these issues.

Client Feedback

When clients provide feedback or request changes based on evolving needs or preferences.

Resource Constraints or Availability

When there are changes in resource availability or constraints that necessitate adjustments to the project plan.

Customer Success

The Role of Change Management in Digital Transformation

Why Change Control is Important in GMP?

Change control is of paramount importance in Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) as it ensures the systematic management of modifications to processes, equipment, facilities, and systems within the pharmaceutical and medical device industries . Strict adherence to GMP principles is vital for consistently producing high-quality and safe products. Change control is critical because any manufacturing process or procedure alterations can significantly impact product quality, safety, and efficacy. By implementing a robust change control process, organizations in GMP-regulated industries can thoroughly assess proposed changes, identify potential risks, and ensure that modifications align with established quality standards. This systematic approach minimizes the likelihood of unintended consequences, deviations from regulatory requirements, and compromises in product quality.

Additionally, change control in GMP facilitates proper documentation, traceability, and transparency, all of which are essential for regulatory compliance and maintaining the integrity of the manufacturing process. Effective change control in GMP ultimately safeguards product quality, regulatory compliance, and patient safety throughout the product lifecycle.

Why do you Need a Change Request Form?

A Change Request Form is needed to formalize and document proposed changes. It provides a structured format for capturing essential details such as the nature of the change, reasons for the change, potential impacts, and the individuals responsible for the request. This form serves as a starting point for the change control process.

What are the Types of Change Request Forms?

There are various types of Change Request Forms, and the specific type used depends on the nature of the change. Examples include:

Scope Change Request Form

Used for changes affecting project scope.

Schedule Change Request Form

Used for changes impacting project timelines.

Budget Change Request Form

Used for changes affecting project budget.

Quality Change Request Form

Used for product or service quality changes.

These forms help standardize the information captured during the change request initiation, making assessing and managing changes easier.

ComplianceQuest delivers!

I’ve been using ComplianceQuest (CQ) for about 9 months and am extremely pleased with the product, the implementation team and ongoing support.

I selected CQ for a number of reasons. Functionality and a simple user interface were key requirements. CQ has all the functionality needed in support of a global QMS. Implementation includes; Document control, change order, personnel training, NC/CAPA, equipment management, supplier management, audit management, and customer complaints all on a single platform. As a small biologics company it was critical to find a single solution to meet our GMP quality system requirements. We wanted a cloud-based system, that would be quick to implement, that could be expanded globally and in other languages, all for a reasonable price. The user interface – it is exactly what I was hoping for. I constantly hear the staff saying, “I love CQ, it’s so straightforward to use”.

Donna Matuizek, Sr. Director Quality

What is a Change Control Policy?

A Change Control Policy is a set of documented guidelines and procedures that an organization follows to manage and control changes to its systems, processes, projects, or other regulated entities. A Change Control Policy aims to ensure that changes are implemented in a planned and systematic manner, minimizing the potential for disruptions, errors, or negative impacts on the organization's operations. It is a critical component of quality management and is often associated with IT, software development, and project management processes.

Here is a basic change control policy template:

The purpose of this Change Control Policy is to establish guidelines and procedures for managing and controlling changes to [organization's name] systems, processes, and projects to ensure the integrity, stability, and reliability of our operations.

This policy applies to all changes, including but not limited to, hardware, software, procedures, documentation, and organizational structure, that may impact the company.

Change Request Submission

All proposed changes must be submitted through the designated Change Request form. The form should include details such as the nature of the change, the reason for the change, potential impacts, and the proposed implementation plan.

Change Evaluation

The Change Control Board (CCB) will evaluate the proposed changes. The CCB will assess the change's impact, risks, and benefits before approval.

Approved changes will be documented, and stakeholders will be informed. The CCB will ensure that necessary resources are allocated to implement approved changes.

Changes will be implemented according to an approved plan. A rollback plan should be in place if unexpected issues arise during implementation.

Documentation

Comprehensive documentation of all changes, including reasons, approvals, and implementation details, will be maintained.

Communication

Effective communication will be maintained throughout the change process to inform stakeholders of progress and potential impacts.

Monitoring and Review

The effectiveness of implemented changes will be monitored, and a post-implementation review will be conducted to identify lessons learned and areas for improvement.

Roles and Responsibilities

Define the roles and responsibilities of individuals involved in the change control process, including the Change Control Board, change initiators, and those responsible for implementation.

Revision History

This policy will be periodically reviewed and updated as necessary. A revision history will be maintained.

What is the Change Control Process Template?

A Change Control Process Template is a structured and predefined document that outlines the steps and procedures to be followed when managing changes within a project, system, or process. This template serves as a guide to ensure that changes are systematically evaluated, approved, and implemented in a controlled and organized manner. The specific contents of a Change Control Process Template may vary, but typically, it includes the following key elements:

Change Request Identification

Clearly defines the process for initiating a change request, including information such as the requester's details, a description, and the reason for the proposed modification.

Change Request Evaluation

Outlines the criteria and considerations for evaluating the impact and feasibility of the proposed change. This may involve assessing the potential effects on scope, schedule, budget, and other relevant factors.

Change Approval Workflow

Defines the workflow for obtaining approvals at different levels. This includes identifying the individuals or groups responsible for reviewing and approving or rejecting the change request.

Documentation Requirements

Specifies the documentation needed to support the change control process. This may include updated project plans, revised requirements, and other relevant documentation.

Implementation Plan

Details the steps to implement the approved change. It may include instructions for updating documentation, notifying stakeholders, and conducting testing, among other activities.

Communication Plan

Outlines how communication about the change will be managed. This includes informing relevant stakeholders, team members, and other parties affected by the change.

Monitoring and Reporting

Describes the mechanisms for monitoring the implementation of the change, tracking its progress, and reporting status updates to relevant parties.

Change Closure

Specifies the criteria for closing a change request, ensuring that all necessary documentation is updated and stakeholders are notified of the successful implementation.

Clearly define the roles and responsibilities of individuals involved in the change control process. This ensures accountability and clarity in decision-making.

References and Attachments

Provides relevant references, templates, or attachments supporting the change control process.

A Change Control Process Template serves as a standardized tool for managing changes efficiently and maintaining control over project or process modifications. It helps ensure that changes are thoroughly evaluated, approved by the appropriate stakeholders, and implemented in a manner that minimizes disruptions and risks. Organizations often customize these templates to align with their specific processes and requirements.

ISO and FDA Change Control Guidance

• ISO 13485 and ISO 9000 standard

ISO 13485 and ISO 9000 are international standards that guide quality management systems in different industries. ISO 13485 focuses on the medical device industry , while ISO 9000 is a more general standard applicable to various sectors.

In the context of the FDA (Food and Drug Administration) regulations for medical devices, 820.30, 820.40, and 820.70 correspond to specific sections within Title 21 of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 820, which is commonly known as the Quality System Regulation (QSR) for medical devices. These sections are part of the requirements outlined by the FDA for manufacturers to ensure the quality and safety of medical devices.

• 820.30 - Design Controls: This section outlines the requirements for design controls in developing medical devices. It includes design and development planning processes, design input, design output, design verification, design validation, design transfer, and design changes. The objective is to ensure that medical devices are designed and developed systematically and controlled to meet specified requirements.
• 820.40 - Document Controls: Document controls are crucial for maintaining an organized and controlled documentation system. This section specifies document approval, distribution, maintenance, and change requirements. It ensures that all relevant documents, including procedures and specifications, are managed effectively throughout their lifecycle.
• 820.70 - Production and Process Controls: Production and process controls are essential to ensure the consistency and quality of medical devices during manufacturing. This section outlines requirements for process validation, control of production processes, inspection, and testing. It focuses on controlling various production aspects to meet quality standards consistently.

Empower your team and drive success with our Change Control – harness the power of seamless transitions and risk mitigation today!

Quality-centric companies rely on cq qms.

Related Insights

Beyond Compliance: A Journey to FDA Inspection Mastery in Pharmaceuticals!

FDA inspections aren't just routine checks – they're the linchpin of pharmaceutical success. FDA inspections directly impact public health and company credibility. Understanding…

In today’s competitive environment, product companies including those in regulated…

Don’t Slip Back into Old Ways: Streamlining Change with Effective Document and Training Management

Adapting to changes, evolving, and being agile have become essential…

5 Best Practices for Managing Change in a Remote Workforce

Quality management systems need continuous monitoring and improvements to become…

Connect with a CQ Expert

Learn about all features of our Product, Quality, Safety, and Supplier suites. Please fill the form below to access our comprehensive demo video.

Please confirm your details

By submitting this form you agree that we can store and process your personal data as per our Privacy Statement. We will never sell your personal information to any third party.

In Need of Smarter Ways Forward? Get in Touch.

Got questions we can help.

Chat with a CQ expert, we will answer all your questions.

• Utility Menu

Risk Management & Audit Services

Change control.

Change Control is the process that management uses to identify, document and authorize changes to an IT environment. It minimizes the likelihood of disruptions, unauthorized alterations and errors. The change control procedures should be designed with the size and complexity of the environment in mind. For example, applications that are complex, maintained by large IT Staffs or represent high risks require more formalized and more extensive processes than simple applications maintained by a single IT person. In all cases there should be clear identification of who is responsible for the change control process.

A change control process should consider the following elements:

• Change Request Initiation and Control - Requests for changes should be standardized and subject to management review. Changes should be categorized and prioritized and specific procedures should be in place to handle urgent matters. Change requestors should be kept informed about the status of their request.
• Impact Assessment - A procedure should be in place to ensure that all requests for change are assessed in a structured way for all possible impacts on the operational system and its functionality.
• Control and documentation of Changes - Changes to production systems should be made only by authorized individuals in a controlled manner. Where possible a process for rolling back to the previous version should be identified. It is also important to document what changes have been made. At a minimum a change log should be maintained that includes a brief functional description of the change; date the change was implemented; who made the change; who authorized the change (if multiple people can authorize changes); and what technical elements were affected by the change.
• Documentation and Procedures - The change process should include provisions that whenever system changes are implemented, the associated documentation and procedures are updated accordingly.
• Authorized Maintenance - Staff maintaining systems should have specific assignments and their work monitored as required. In addition, their system access rights should be controlled to avoid risks of unauthorized access to production environments.
• Testing and User signoff - Software is thoroughly tested, not only for the change itself but also for impact on elements not modified.
• Consider developing a standard suite of tests for your application as well as creating a separate test environment.
• The standard test suite will help identify if core elements of an application were inadvertently affected. Maintaining this suite will make it less likely you will forget to test some feature in the future. The separate test environment will minimize disruptions to the production environment. Another important aspect of testing is that you test with transactions for which you know the correct results. Business owners of the systems should be responsible for signing off and approving changes being made.
• Testing Environment - Ideally systems should have at least three separate environments for development, testing and production. The test and production environments should be as similar as possible, with the possible exception of size. If cost prohibits having three environments, testing and development could take place in the same environment; but development activity would need to be closely managed (stopped) during acceptance testing. In no case should untested code or development be in a production environment.
• Version Control - Control should be placed on production source code to ensure that only the latest version is being updated. Otherwise previous changes may be inadvertently lost when a new change is moved into production. Version control may also help in being able to effectively back out of a change that has unintended side affects.
• Emergency Changes - Emergency situations may occur that requires some of the program change controls to be overridden such as granting programmers access to production. However, at least a verbal authorization should be obtained and the change should be documented as soon as possible.
• Distribution of Software - As a change is implemented, it is important that all components of the change are installed in the correct locations and in a timely manner.
• Hardware and System Software Changes - Changes to hardware and system software should also be tested and authorized before being applied to the production environment. They should also be documented in the change log.

If a vendor supplies patches, they should be reviewed and assessed for applicability and potential impact to determine whether their fixes are required by the system.

Get started

• Project management
• CRM and Sales
• Work management
• Product development life cycle
• Comparisons
• Construction management
• monday.com updates

What is change control management?

In some of our other posts on the monday.com blog, we’ve discussed the idea of crisis management.

Viewed a certain way, a crisis is really just a time of rapid change.

What if a company were to have a “crisis” on purpose?

Suppose they knew their infrastructure was outdated, and in need of a radical update?

It wouldn’t be easy. Without careful management, a controlled crisis like that could easily spiral into a regular crisis.

But there’s a way to ensure that big changes don’t derail your entire organization.

It’s called change control management — and the monday.com Work OS can help you pull it off.

This article will explain what change control management is, how it works, and how you can benefit.

Change control means that you pre-emptively establish processes to make any changes to your project, infrastructure, or organization.

Before we keep going, let’s sort out a point of frequent confusion: change control and change management are not the same thing.

Change management is the act of dealing with changes outside of your control. A change manager might be hired to guide an organization through a time of upheaval in the industry or the world.

Change management can also refer to how companies find a new normal after a major internal change.

Change control is different.

Let’s use an example to define change control in detail. Suppose you’re working on a SaaS platform that helps small business owners order inventory.

Your work is mainly in e-commerce but, one day, a new order comes in from the head of product: instead of just being a store, they want users to be able to bank money in the product as well.

The product head doesn’t work on your team, so your project manager is the first to learn about the proposed change. The product head recognizes that this will be a major scope change, but says it comes from user research.

Without a project change control process, your project manager has 2 options here.

1. They can refuse to make the change, causing a rift within the company and potentially missing out on customers who asked for the new features,

2. They can accept the change and ask you to start work on it immediately, at the risk of throwing the whole development schedule into confusion.

As you can see, neither option is great. But there’s a third choice.

3. They can run the project change through a thorough change control system and decide how to implement it in a way that minimizes impact and maximizes return.

In the bad scenario, say your team lead picks #2. You’re suddenly thrust into a project with a scope that doesn’t match what you’ve been working toward for months.

You make changes without understanding the consequences and, soon, you can’t get the product back to where it was when you started.

In the best scenario, where a change control process exists, any potential consequences will have been mapped out and understood ahead of time. If a change needs to be reversed later, there’s a clear path back to the starting point.

So how do you get that process in place?

Get started with monday.com

By following the steps in the next section.

How do you manage the change control process?

A good change control process needs to flow through several phases.

This screenshot demonstrates what a change control management tracker can look like (yes, it’s ours — that’s the change management  use case for the monday.com Work OS).

As you can see, it’s a lot like how any other task gets moved through the implementation process.

First, someone submits an official change request form. As a minimum, this should define the change, the reason for the change, and how long they expect it to take.

Next, somebody needs to review the change request and make a decision about whether, when, and how to implement it. This is the critical point: at a minimum, the change request review needs to include the four elements below.

1. Risk assessment

In your company’s system, everything is connected. So any major change carries some risk.

However, failing to act on opportunities for positive change bears risks of its own.

That’s why any change control process must involve a risk analysis. Following standard risk management procedures, weigh the risks and rewards of making the change vs. the risks and rewards of doing nothing.

The monday.com program risk register  template is our favorite example (I mean, we did invent it).

Since no two organizations face quite the same sorts of risk, we made it so you can customize this table by adding new columns.

By keeping track of risk, you can evaluate each change to see whether it’s better to press forward or play it safe for now.

2. Backout plan

Risk analysis is important, but you’ll never be able to foresee everything that could go wrong.

It’s rare, but possible, that you’ll commit to a change that’s too great for your project to bear.

In our example, turning your e-commerce app into a banking platform might mean you’ll make it to market too late.

In that case, you’ll have to activate your backout plan, and get back to basics so you can ship faster.

A backout plan means that you never embark on a change without understanding how you could return to the pre-change state on short notice.

Tracking your changes closely with a change management template  (like the one above from monday.com) makes detailed backout plans a breeze.

3. Defined staff roles

Remember how, at the beginning of this post, we defined changes as controlled crises?

In a crisis situation, nothing is more important than clearly laying out jobs for every member of your team.

The same is true for change control. It’s all part of building a uniform process for rigorously vetting every change.

You’ll need to designate at least the following people (these can overlap):

• Someone to read change requests
• Someone to conduct risk analysis
• Someone to communicate with outside stakeholders
• Someone responsible for final approval

Use the monday.com team task management  template to keep all of them straight.

4. Documentation

The change you’re dealing with at the moment is very unlikely to be the last one.

Changes will come in the future, and they might need to build on what happened during prior periods of change. That requires in-depth knowledge (particularly if something went wrong).

In change control, document everything. Every initial change request should be submitted in a standardized document format. Same with risk evaluations, approvals, denials, and requests for further information.

On top of that, the entire change log should be made available to every stakeholder both during, and after, the change control process.

You guessed it: there’s a monday.com template for that.

Our process management  template lets you share links to documentation for every stage of the change control pipeline. Even people outside your company will find it easy to get what they need.

How does monday.com help with change control?

monday.com is a Work OS.

Through user-friendly templates and integrations, it helps make your workflows…y’know, work.

What does that mean for change control?

As you’ve seen above, a comprehensive change control plan has a lot of moving parts.

You need to evaluate several options in-depth, calculate forecasts for the future, and stay in communication with everyone the whole time.

It’s going to go far better if you have all your apps working together, and all your important information visible in one place. That’s where change control software can help.

Change control helps you plan change, not panic

Change control is just a fancy word for making sure change is intentional, rather than forced on your project team and company from the outside.

It’s about active change, since that almost always works out better than reactive change.

Nobody knows better than you what kind of challenges you’re likely to face over the lifetime of your project.

We figure the best thing we can do for you is open up the monday.com templates  library, so you can start building your perfect change control plan.

Thanks for reading, and never forget to embrace change!

• Project change management

Send this article to someone who’d like it.

• Product overview
• All features
• App integrations

CAPABILITIES

• project icon Project management
• Project views
• Custom fields
• Status updates
• goal icon Goals and reporting
• Reporting dashboards
• workflow icon Workflows and automation
• portfolio icon Resource management
• Time tracking
• my-task icon Admin and security
• Admin console
• asana-intelligence icon Asana Intelligence
• list icon Personal
• premium icon Starter
• briefcase icon Advanced
• Goal management
• Organizational planning
• Campaign management
• Creative production
• Content calendars
• Marketing strategic planning
• Resource planning
• Project intake
• Product launches
• Employee onboarding
• View all uses arrow-right icon
• Project plans
• Team goals & objectives
• Team continuity
• Meeting agenda
• View all templates arrow-right icon
• Work management resources Discover best practices, watch webinars, get insights
• What's new Learn about the latest and greatest from Asana
• Customer stories See how the world's best organizations drive work innovation with Asana
• Help Center Get lots of tips, tricks, and advice to get the most from Asana
• Asana Academy Sign up for interactive courses and webinars to learn Asana
• Developers Learn more about building apps on the Asana platform
• Community programs Connect with and learn from Asana customers around the world
• Events Find out about upcoming events near you
• Partners Learn more about our partner programs
• Support Need help? Contact the Asana support team
• Asana for nonprofits Get more information on our nonprofit discount program, and apply.

Featured Reads

• Project management |
• What is a change control process and ho ...

What is a change control process and how do you use it?

A change control process is a way for project managers to submit requests to stakeholders for review, that are then approved or denied. It’s an important process to help manage large projects with multiple moving parts.

The change control process is essential for large initiatives where many teammates work cross-departmentally. Let’s dive into the process and tangible examples to help you implement a change control procedure of your own.  

What does change control process mean?

Change control is a process used to manage change requests for projects and big initiatives. It’s part of a change management plan, which defines the roles for managing change within a team or company. While there are many parts to a change process, the easiest way to think about it is that it involves creating a change log where you’ll track project change requests. 

In most cases, any stakeholder will be able to request a change. A request could be as small as a slight edit to the project schedule or as large as a new deliverable. It’s important to keep in mind that not all requests will be approved, as it’s up to key stakeholders to approve or deny change requests. 

Since the change control process has many moving parts and differs from company to company, it’s useful to implement tools that can help the lifecycle process flow smoothly. Tools such as workflow management software can help you manage work and communication in one place. 

Change control vs. change management

Confused by the difference between change control and change management? We don't blame you. There are many differences between change control and a change management plan . Change control is just one of the many pieces of a change management strategy. 

Change control: A change control process is important for any organization to have, and can help the flow of information when it comes to project changes. A successful process should define success metrics, organize your workflow, enable teams to communicate, and set your team up for future success. 

Change management: A change management plan consists of coordinating budget, schedule, communication, and resources. So while a change control process consists of a formal document that outlines a request for change and the impact of the change, change management is the overarching plan.

As you can see, a change control process is just one small part of a larger change management plan. So while related, the two terms are different.

What are the benefits of a change control process?

Implementing a change control process can help organize your team with the support of organization software and efficiency around project deliverables and due dates. It’s also crucial when considering the consequences of change that isn’t managed effectively.  

A change management process can help you execute a resource management plan or other work management goals. Here are some additional benefits of implementing a change control process. 

Increased productivity  

A change control process will eliminate confusion around project deliverables and allow the focus to be on executing rather than collecting information. This results in increased productivity and efficiency, especially with the help of productivity software .

Without a process in place, productivity can suffer due to time spent on work about work. With limited bandwidth available for the most important work, over one-quarter (26%) of deadlines are missed each week.

Effective communication

Properly documenting change can help alleviate communication issues. When goals and objectives are clearly defined, team communication can flourish. Keep in mind, a change control process won’t fix all communication issues. It may be helpful to also incorporate work management software to keep communication about projects in one place.  

A change control process can then also be shared with executive stakeholders in order to easily provide context for change requests.  

Better teamwork and collaboration

Not only is effective communication a benefit in its own right, but it can also help improve collaboration. With clear communication on project changes, it’s easier to collaborate and work together. 

For example, when changes are clearly communicated the first time around, stakeholders have more time to focus on creativity and teamwork. Without effective communication, stakeholders are forced to spend time piecing information together instead of working creatively with team members. 

Want to enhance collaboration even further? Pair your change control process with task management software to set your team up for success. 

The five steps of a change control process

Similar to the five project management phases , there are five key steps when it comes to creating a change control process. Though some processes differ slightly, they all contain a few key elements. From initiation to implementation, each one of these basic steps helps change requests move efficiently through the pipeline and prevent unnecessary changes. 

Some prefer to view the procedure in a change control process flow, which can be easier to visualize. No matter how you choose to look at it, the outcome will be a finalized decision on whether a change request is approved or denied.  

Let’s dive into the five steps that make an effective change control process and what’s included in each.

1. Change request initiation

In the initiation phase of the change control process, a change is requested. There are numerous reasons why you might request a change. For example, a creative deliverable is taking longer than anticipated. A request would then be made to adjust the deliverable due date. While a request may be more likely to come from a stakeholder or project lead, a proposed change can be requested by anyone. 

A team member who wishes to make a request should submit one via a change request form. As the project manager, you should store the change log in a place that’s easy to find and everyone has access to. 

Once the request form has been filled out, you will update the change log with a name, brief description, and any other details you see fit, such as the date and name of the requester. The log is a record of all project changes, which can be beneficial for managing multiple projects that span many months. 

Here’s an example of various fields you might include in a change request form.

Project name

Request description

Requested by

Change owner

Impact of change

The fields you include will depend on how thorough you want your change log to be and the type of changes you come across.

2. Change request assessment

Once the request has been filled out and the initial form has been submitted and approved, the request will then be assessed. This is different from the initial form submission since the assessment is when the actual change will be evaluated. 

The assessment phase isn’t necessarily where a decision is made, but rather, reviewed for basic information. The information will likely be assessed by a project or department lead, who will review details such as the resources needed, the impact of the request, and who the request should be passed on to. 

If the change request passes the initial assessment, it will then be passed on to the analysis phase where an actual decision will be made. 

3. Change request analysis

The change impact analysis phase is where there will be a final decision on whether the request is approved or denied by the appropriate project lead. While you may also give input on the decision, it’s a good idea to get official approval from a leader as well. In some cases, there may even be a change control board that is in control of any change approvals. 

An approved change request will require signoff, and from there, be communicated to the team and continue through the rest of the five-phase process. It should be documented on the change log and anywhere else project communication lives to ensure all project stakeholders understand the shifts needed. 

If the change request is denied, it should also be documented on the change log. While communicating a denied request to the team isn’t necessary, it could be helpful in order to prevent confusion. 

4. Change request implementation

If the change request is approved, the process will move on to the implementation phase. This is where you and the project stakeholders will work to make the project change.  

Implementing a change will look different depending on what stage the project is in, but it usually consists of updating project timelines and deliverables, as well as informing the project team. Then the actual work can begin. It’s a good idea to evaluate the project scope to ensure any changes to the timeline won’t have a huge impact on projected goals. 

It’s best to disseminate the request’s information in a shared workspace and the change log to ensure productivity isn’t lost by trying to look for new information. You may even want to send out a revised business case to cover all of your bases. 

5. Change request closure

Once the request has been documented, disseminated, and implemented, the request is ready to be closed. While some teams don’t have a formal closure plan in place, it’s helpful to have one in order to store information in a place that all team members can reference in the future. 

In the closing phase, any documentation, change logs, and communication should be stored in a shared space that can be accessed later on. You should also store the initial change form and any revised project plans you created along the way. 

Once documents are in the appropriate place, you can close out any open tasks and work on successfully completing your project. Some project leads also host a post-mortem meeting before officially closing the project. 

Change control process example

Now that you understand the five steps of a change control process, it’s time to put them into action. We’ve put together an example to give you a tangible place to start.   

Before putting your own plan together, it’s important to evaluate your current processes and tools to ensure they’re right for your team. You may even want to create a business case or project plan to present to company stakeholders. 

The entries you include in your change log may differ depending on the types of changes you frequently come across and how complicated the projects are. While complicated projects that span months may run into more change requests, smaller one-off projects may not need as detailed of a change log. 

Here’s an example change log to give you an idea of what to include and how to format your own. This change control example includes:

Priority status

Progress status

Change type

This simple format is a great starting point for a change log, but you may choose to add additional fields depending on the complexity of your project. 

To create your own change log, you can create a custom template or view our project templates gallery . 

When to use a change control process

It’s a good idea to note when to use a change control management plan so you’re prepared when the time comes. There are many different kinds of change that you might come across, depending on any new initiatives and the tools in place.

Common changes might include requests to extend timelines, reorganization of information, or a change in the deliverables. Here are some additional instances where you may want to use a change control process. 

Over scope: You may want to consider using this process when a project is going over scope, also known as scope creep . 

Project inconsistencies: If you notice inconsistencies during a project, requesting a change can help you avoid having to rework deliverables later. 

Steep goals: In some cases, OKRs may be out of reach and it’s a good idea to flag those issues before the project is complete.

New tools: If there are new processes or tools in place, change may be inevitable while you work out new issues during your first few projects. 

Request your way to change

While changes are inevitable, the good news is a change doesn’t have to derail your next project. By implementing a change control process, you can ensure the project stays on track and communication is clear and effective. This will bolster productivity and lessen confusion about your project deliverables . 

In the event that you do run into change, it’s reassuring to know that you have the right processes in place to handle the situation. When you have a change management plan ready to go, you can mitigate the negative impacts associated with a shift in strategy and continue to focus on delivering impact.

Related resources

What is a flowchart? Symbols and types explained

What are story points? Six easy steps to estimate work in Agile

How to choose project management software for your team

7 steps to complete a social media audit (with template)

How To Mitigate Change Management Risk

Change Strategists

Affiliate Disclaimer

As an affiliate, we may earn a commission from qualifying purchases. We get commissions for purchases made through links on this website from Amazon and other third parties.

So, you’ve decided to make some changes in your organization. That’s great! After all, change is necessary for growth and progress. However, before you jump headfirst into the deep end of change management, it’s important to recognize the potential risks involved.

To mitigate change management risk, it is important to have a clear plan in place before implementing any changes. This includes identifying potential risks and developing strategies to address them. Communication and training are also key components, as they can help employees understand the changes and how to adapt to them.

It is also important to have a process for monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of the changes, and making adjustments as needed.

Change management can be a tricky business. It’s not just about implementing new processes or technologies, but also about managing people’s emotions, expectations, and resistance to change. Without proper planning and execution, change can result in chaos, confusion, and even failure.

But fear not, dear reader! In this article, we will guide you through the process of mitigating change management risk, step-by-step.

From identifying potential risks to celebrating success, we’ll cover everything you need to know to ensure a smooth and successful transition.

So, let’s get started!

Identify Potential Risks

You need to start by looking for possible challenges that could come up in the process of change management. This is called risk assessment, and it involves identifying potential risks that may cause delays or failure of the project.

Some of the risks that should be considered during the assessment include employee resistance, lack of communication, inadequate training, and budget constraints.

Once you have identified the potential risks, you can then develop mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of these risks. For instance, to mitigate employee resistance, you can involve them in the change process by communicating the benefits of the change and providing them with adequate training.

To mitigate the lack of communication, you can establish clear communication channels and set up regular meetings to update stakeholders on the progress of the project.

In conclusion, identifying potential risks and developing mitigation strategies is crucial in mitigating change management risk. By doing so, you can ensure that the change process is smooth and successful, and that the project is completed within the set timeline and budget. Remember that risk assessment is an ongoing process, and it’s important to regularly review and update your mitigation strategies as the project progresses.

Develop a Change Management Plan

Crafting a solid plan is key to successfully navigating and adapting to any shifts in your organization. Change readiness is essential to ensure that your plan is effective and sustainable.

Assessing your team’s readiness for change will help you develop a plan that is tailored to their needs. To do this, consider conducting surveys, focus groups, or interviews to gain insights into how your team perceives the change, what they need to feel comfortable with it, and what challenges they anticipate. By taking these steps, you can ensure that your plan is well-informed and addresses any potential obstacles.

Stakeholder engagement is another crucial component of change management planning. Engaging stakeholders early on and throughout the change process can help you build buy-in and support for your plan. It can also help you identify potential resistance or challenges early on and address them before they become major roadblocks.

Consider involving stakeholders in planning, communicating, and implementing the change. This can include senior leaders, front-line employees, customers, and any other groups that may be impacted by the change. By engaging stakeholders in a meaningful way, you can ensure that your plan is well-informed, collaborative, and successful.

In summary, developing a change management plan requires careful consideration of change readiness and stakeholder engagement. Crafting a solid plan that is tailored to your team’s needs and involves stakeholders early on can help you mitigate risk and ensure long-term success. By investing time and effort in planning and engaging stakeholders, you can navigate change more effectively and build a stronger, more resilient organization.

Communicate Effectively

In this section, effectively communicating your change management plan is like a conductor leading an orchestra. Just as a conductor brings all the different instruments together in harmony towards a common goal, you must bring your team together towards a successful change implementation.

The importance of empathy and clarity cannot be overstated when it comes to effective communication. Empathy allows you to understand your team’s perspective and concerns, while clarity ensures that everyone is on the same page.

Building trust is crucial in any change management initiative, and effective communication is key to achieving it. Transparency and consistency are the building blocks of trust. Ensure that you communicate every step of the change process with transparency, keeping your team informed about what’s coming and what’s expected of them. Consistency in communication helps to establish trust, so maintain a regular cadence of communication with your team.

In summary, effective communication is vital to mitigate change management risk. Empathy and clarity are crucial components of effective communication, as is building trust through transparency and consistency. As you communicate your change management plan, remember that you’re the conductor leading your team towards a successful change initiative.

Build a Strong Team

Together, you’ll be assembling a team of skilled individuals who will work in harmony towards a common goal, much like a group of musicians in an orchestra. The success of your change management plan will depend on how effectively you build and lead your team.

To start, you should identify the key competencies required for your team and select individuals who have those skills. Once you have your team in place, it’s important to foster a culture of collaboration and communication.

To build a strong team, you can engage in team building activities that promote trust and open communication. This can be as simple as having regular team meetings or as elaborate as organizing a retreat or team-building workshop. The goal is to help your team members get to know each other better, understand their strengths and weaknesses, and develop a sense of camaraderie.

Additionally, it’s important to provide leadership development opportunities for your team members. This can include training, mentoring, and coaching to help them grow and develop their leadership skills.

In summary, building a strong team is essential to mitigating change management risk. By assembling a group of skilled individuals who work well together and providing leadership development opportunities, you can ensure that your team is equipped to handle any challenges that may arise during the change management process. Remember that team building is an ongoing process, so continue to foster a culture of collaboration and communication to maintain a high-performing team.

Monitor Progress

Monitoring progress is crucial to the success of your change management plan, so keep an eye on how things are going and adjust as needed. Set up regular feedback sessions with your team and stakeholders to ensure that everyone is on the same page. Use performance metrics to track progress and identify any areas that need improvement.

Stakeholder engagement is a critical component of change management, and regular feedback loops can help you keep your stakeholders informed and engaged. Make sure that you’re communicating with your stakeholders regularly and that you’re providing them with the information they need to understand the changes that are happening. Encourage feedback and be open to suggestions for improvement.

Using performance metrics to monitor progress is an effective way to ensure the success of your change management plan. By tracking key performance indicators, you can identify any areas that need improvement and make adjustments as needed. Regular feedback sessions with your team and stakeholders can also help you identify any issues early on and address them before they become major problems.

Remember that change management is an ongoing process, and monitoring progress is essential to ensuring that your plan is successful.

Anticipate and Address Resistance

Don’t let resistance hold you back – anticipate and address it head-on to ensure the success of your plan. Resistance is a natural part of change management, but it can also be a major obstacle.

To mitigate this risk, it’s important to have a clear understanding of the potential sources of resistance. This could include a fear of the unknown, a lack of understanding about the benefits of the change, or concerns about job security. Once you have identified these potential sources of resistance, you can develop targeted training strategies and communication plans to address them.

One effective strategy for mitigating resistance is to focus on leadership buy-in. If key leaders within the organization are on board with the change, they can help to create a culture that is supportive of the transition. This can include providing training and resources to help employees adapt to the change, as well as modeling the desired behaviors and attitudes.

By engaging these leaders early on in the process and making them part of the planning and implementation, you can help to build a coalition of support that can help to overcome resistance.

Another important aspect of addressing resistance is to be transparent and open to feedback. Employees are more likely to support a change if they feel that their concerns and opinions are being heard and valued. This means providing regular updates on the progress of the change, soliciting feedback from employees, and being willing to make adjustments as needed.

By creating a culture of openness and transparency, you can help to build trust and engagement, which can ultimately lead to a more successful change management process.

Manage Operational Disruptions

As you dive deeper into managing operational disruptions, it’s important to develop contingency plans to prepare for unexpected events. In doing so, you’ll be able to minimize disruptions and keep your business running smoothly.

Effective communication with customers and suppliers is also crucial. This will help maintain strong relationships and ensure that everyone is on the same page.

By taking a proactive approach and being prepared for potential disruptions, you can minimize their impact and keep your business moving forward.

Develop Contingency Plans

The key to successfully navigating unexpected obstacles is to have backup plans in place that are as solid as a rock. Developing contingency plans is a crucial step in mitigating change management risk. Here are three things to keep in mind when creating these plans:

Identify the potential risks: Start by conducting a thorough risk assessment to identify all possible risks that could disrupt your operations. This will help you develop contingency plans that address the most critical risks first.

Prioritize your response: Not all risks require the same level of response. Identify which risks are most likely to occur and which ones would have the greatest impact on your business. This will help you prioritize your response and allocate resources accordingly.

Test and refine your plans: Once you’ve developed your contingency plans, it’s important to test them regularly to ensure they’re effective and up-to-date. This will help you identify any weaknesses in your plans and refine them accordingly.

By following these steps, you can develop contingency plans that’ll help you navigate unexpected obstacles and minimize the impact of change management risk on your business continuity.

Minimize Disruptions

You can minimize disruptions by focusing on strategies to keep your operations running smoothly even when unexpected obstacles arise. One way to do this is by implementing change management best practices such as stakeholder engagement and training strategies. By involving stakeholders in the change process, you can ensure that their concerns and needs are addressed, which can help reduce resistance to change. Additionally, providing training and support to employees can help them understand the changes and adapt more quickly, which can minimize disruptions to daily operations.

To further minimize disruptions, you can also develop a contingency plan that outlines how your organization will respond to unexpected events. This plan should include specific actions to take in the event of a disruption, such as identifying backup systems or resources that can be used to maintain operations. By preparing for potential disruptions in advance, you can minimize the impact of these events and ensure that your organization can continue to function effectively.

Communicate Effectively with Customers and Suppliers

To continue minimizing disruptions during change management, it’s important to effectively communicate with customers and suppliers. This means coming up with strategies and tools to engage with them during the process. Effective communication is key to mitigating risks and ensuring a smooth transition.

One of the most important strategies is to engage with customers and suppliers early on in the process. This allows you to understand their needs and concerns, and address them proactively. You can also use various communication channels such as email, phone calls, or face-to-face meetings to keep them informed about the changes and how they may be affected.

Additionally, it’s important to provide them with adequate training and resources to help them adapt to the changes. By doing so, you can build trust and ensure their continued support throughout the transition.

Evaluate the Results

As you evaluate the outcomes of your change management strategies, you’ll gain valuable insights into their effectiveness and identify any potential roadblocks that may arise during implementation. This process involves analyzing data to measure success and determine whether your efforts are delivering the desired results. By doing so, you can identify areas for improvement and make any necessary adjustments to your approach.

To effectively evaluate the results of your change management initiatives, you’ll need to establish clear metrics and benchmarks to measure success. This may involve tracking key performance indicators such as employee satisfaction, productivity, and revenue growth. By regularly monitoring these metrics, you can identify any trends or patterns that may be impacting your outcomes and adjust your strategies accordingly.

In addition to analyzing data, it’s important to gather feedback from stakeholders and team members throughout the change management process. This can help you identify any potential issues or concerns before they become major roadblocks. By incorporating this feedback into your evaluation process, you can gain a more comprehensive understanding of the effectiveness of your strategies and make any necessary changes to ensure a successful implementation.

Celebrate Success

Let’s take a moment to celebrate the success of our change initiatives and acknowledge the positive impact they’ve had on our team’s morale and productivity. Did you know that employee satisfaction increased by 20% after implementing these changes?

It’s important to recognize achievements and to celebrate the progress we’ve made. By acknowledging the successes, we can motivate and inspire our team to continue to embrace change and push forward.

One way to celebrate success is to involve employees in the process. Employees who feel valued and appreciated are more likely to be engaged and committed to their work. By involving them in the celebration, we can build a sense of community and foster a collaborative culture. This can be achieved through team-building activities, recognition programs, and other initiatives that promote a positive and supportive work environment.

Incorporating a culture of celebration and recognition can also help mitigate change management risks. When employees feel supported and valued, they’re more likely to embrace change and adapt to new processes. This can lead to a smoother transition and a faster return on investment.

Celebrating success and recognizing achievements can also help build momentum and create a positive feedback loop that encourages continued improvement and growth. So, let’s take a moment to celebrate our successes, involve our employees, and continue to push forward towards our goals.

Continuously Improve

You can always find ways to improve and grow, whether it’s through seeking feedback from your team or staying up-to-date on industry trends and best practices.

Continuous improvement is an essential aspect of mitigating change management risks. By implementing strategies that foster a culture of continuous improvement, you can stay ahead of the curve and ensure that your team is always working towards optimal performance.

Below are the best practices for implementing a continuous improvement plan:

Gather Feedback: One of the best ways to improve is by gathering feedback from your team. Encourage an open-door policy where team members can share their ideas and concerns without fear of retribution. Regular check-ins and surveys will also help you gauge team morale and identify areas for improvement.

Set Goals: Goals help to provide direction and focus. Set clear, measurable, and achievable goals for your team and track progress towards these goals. Celebrate milestones and achievements along the way to keep motivation high.

Stay Informed: Staying up-to-date on industry trends and best practices is essential for continuous improvement. Attend conferences, read relevant publications, and network with peers to stay informed and bring new ideas back to your team. Continuous improvement is an ongoing process, and it requires a commitment to learning and growth.

Incorporating these best practices into your change management plan will help you mitigate risks and maximize success. Remember, continuous improvement isn’t a destination but a journey. By fostering a culture of continuous improvement, you can ensure that your team is always striving for excellence.

What Are the Potential Risks of Change Management and How Can They Be Managed?

When implementing change within an organization, there are potential risks that may arise, such as resistance from employees, communication breakdowns, and productivity disruptions. To manage these risks, employing effective mitigating change management strategies , including clear communication, involving employees in the process, providing necessary support and training, and continuously monitoring and adjusting the change plan, can help ensure a successful transition.

Now that you’ve gone through the steps of mitigating change management risk, it’s important to remember that this is an ongoing process. Change is inevitable, and the risks associated with it will always be present. Therefore, it’s crucial to continuously improve and refine your change management strategies.

One way to do this is by evaluating the results of your current change management plan. Analyze what worked, what didn’t, and why. This will help you identify areas that need improvement and make necessary adjustments.

Remember to also celebrate success. Acknowledge the hard work and dedication of your team and recognize the positive outcomes of your change management efforts. This will not only boost morale but also reinforce the importance of effective change management in your organization.

By following these steps and continuously improving your change management strategies, you can mitigate risk and ensure the successful implementation of organizational changes.

About the author

If you want to grow your business visit Growth Jetpack program . And if you want the best technology to grow your online brand visit Clixoni .

Latest Posts

Winning Change Management Roadmap: A Step-By-Step Guide

Prepare to revolutionize your approach to organizational transformations with the Winning Change Management Roadmap – the key to unlocking success in change management.

3 Surprising Ways Diversity Transforms Employee Satisfaction

A deep dive into how diversity reshapes employee satisfaction will challenge your perceptions and spark new insights.

Powerful Leaders and Clear Vision: Navigating Downsizing

This article explores the importance of addressing change at organizational, work unit, and individual levels, and the impact of downsizing on motivation, productivity, and turnover.

JavaScript seems to be disabled in your browser. For the best experience on our site, be sure to turn on Javascript in your browser.

Hello! You are viewing this site in ${language} language. Is this correct?

Explore the Levels of Change Management

The Costs and Risks of Poorly Managed Change

Tim Creasey

Updated: March 2, 2024

Published: January 19, 2022

When the people side of change is ignored or poorly managed, the project and the organization take on additional costs and risks. When you consider it from this perspective, effective change management is a cost avoidance technique, risk mitigation tactic, and justifiable investment . Here's an overview of common costs and risks, and how to position change management to clearly communicate and share its benefits.

Consequences of Poor Change Management

It's likely that we have all experienced a poorly managed organizational change at some point, either as an offender or victim. We know from experience that when this happens, the individual changes that culminate in organizational change do not take place. We know that when the "people side of change" is mismanaged, projects don't realize the results and outcomes desired. We know that we have a lower likelihood of meeting objectives, finishing on time, and finishing on budget . And we know that speed of adoption will be slower, ultimate utilization will be lower, and proficiency will be lacking—all dragging down expected returns. 

Ignoring or mismanaging change manifests as costs and risks that play out on both the project level and organizational level. While some of these costs and risks may seem soft, many are quantifiable and can have a significant impact on financial performance for the project and the organization as a whole. 

Project-level costs and risks of mismanaged change

Project-level impacts relate directly to the specific project or initiative forgoing change management. These projects can impact tools, technologies, processes, reporting structures and job roles. They can result from strategic planning, internal stimuli such as performance issues, external stimuli such as regulation or competitive threats, or demands by customers and suppliers. The initiatives may be formalized as projects with project managers, budgets, schedules, etc., or they may be informal in nature but still impact how people do their jobs. 

While these projects can take on a number of different forms, the fact remains that ignoring or mismanaging the people side of change has real consequences for project performance:

• Project delays
• Missed milestones
• Budget overruns
• Rework required on design
• Loss of work by project team
• Resistance 
• Project put on hold
• Resources not made available
• Obstacles appear unexpectedly
• Project fails to deliver results
• Project is fully abandoned

When we apply change management effectively , we can prevent or avoid costs and mitigate risks tied to how individual employees adopt and utilize a change.

Organization-level costs and risks of mismanaged change

The organizational level is a step above the project-level impacts. These costs and risks are felt not only by the project team, but by the organization as a whole. Many of these impacts extend well beyond the lifecycle of a given project. When valuable employees leave the organization, the costs are extreme. A legacy of failed change presents a significant and ever-present backdrop that all future changes will encounter.

The organizational costs and risks of poorly managing change include:

• Productivity plunges (deep and sustained)
• Loss of valued employees
• Reduced quality of work
• Impact on customers
• Impact on suppliers
• Decline in morale
• Legacy of failed change
• Stress, confusion and fatigue
• Change saturation

Applying change management effectively on a particular project or initiative allows you to avoid organizational costs and risks that last well beyond the life of the project.

Costs and risks of failing to deliver results and outcomes

There is one final dimension of costs and risks to consider, beyond the project and organizational impacts. When we try to introduce a change without using effective change management, we are much less likely to implement the change and fully realize the expected results and outcomes. This final dimension provides answers to the question: What if the change is not fully implemented?

If the change does not deliver the results and outcomes—in large part because we ignored the people side of change —there are additional costs and risks.

Costs if the change is not fully implemented:

• Lost investment made in the project
• Lost opportunity to have invested in other projects

Risks if the change is not fully implemented:

• Expenses not reduced
• Efficiencies not gained
• Revenue not increased
• Market share not captured
• Waste not reduced
• Regulations not met

Change Risks and Change Management

Discussing the costs and risks of poorly managed change is yet another way to make the case for change management . Positioning change management as a cost avoidance technique or a risk mitigation tactic can be an effective approach for communicating change management's value or to get support for the resources you need for managing the people side of change.

Tim Creasey is Prosci’s Chief Innovation Officer and a globally recognized leader in Change Management. Their work forms the basis of the world's largest body of knowledge on managing the people side of change to deliver organizational results.

See all posts from Tim Creasey

You Might Also Like

Enterprise - 3 MINS

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Change Management

Are You Demotivating Your Front-Line Employees?

Subscribe here.

• Change Management Process
• Macro Environmental Analysis
• NOISE Analysis
• Profit & Loss Templates
• Scenario Planning
• What are Tree Diagrams
• Winning Brand Strategy
• Work Management Systems
• Balanced Scorecard
• Developing Action Plans
• Guide to setting OKRS
• How to Write a Memo
• Improve Productivity & Efficiency
• Mastering Task Analysis
• Mastering Task Batching
• Monthly Budget Templates
• Program Planning
• Top Down Vs. Bottom Up
• Weekly Schedule Templates
• Kaizen Principles
• Opportunity Mapping
• Strategic-Goals
• Strategy Mapping
• T Chart Guide
• Business Continuity Plan
• Developing Your MVP
• Incident Management
• Needs Assessment Process
• Product Development From Ideation to Launch
• Value-Proposition-Canvas
• Visualizing Competitive Landscape
• Communication Plan
• Graphic Organizer Creator
• Fault Tree Software
• Bowman's Strategy Clock Template
• Decision Matrix Template
• Communities of Practice
• Goal Setting for 2024
• Meeting Templates
• Meetings Participation
• Microsoft Teams Brainstorming
• Retrospective Guide
• Skip Level Meetings
• Visual Documentation Guide
• Weekly Meetings
• Affinity Diagrams
• Business Plan Presentation
• Post-Mortem Meetings
• Team Building Activities
• WBS Templates
• Online Whiteboard Tool
• Communications Plan Template
• Idea Board Online
• Meeting Minutes Template
• Genograms in Social Work Practice
• Conceptual Framework
• How to Conduct a Genogram Interview
• How to Make a Genogram
• Genogram Questions
• Genograms in Client Counseling
• Understanding Ecomaps
• Visual Research Data Analysis Methods
• House of Quality Template
• Customer Problem Statement Template
• Competitive Analysis Template
• Creating Operations Manual
• Knowledge Base
• Folder Structure Diagram
• Online Checklist Maker
• Lean Canvas Template
• Instructional Design Examples
• Genogram Maker
• Work From Home Guide
• Strategic Planning
• Employee Engagement Action Plan
• Huddle Board
• One-on-One Meeting Template
• Story Map Graphic Organizers
• Introduction to Your Workspace
• Managing Workspaces and Folders
• Adding Text
• Collaborative Content Management
• Creating and Editing Tables
• Adding Notes
• Introduction to Diagramming
• Using Shapes
• Using Freehand Tool
• Adding Images to the Canvas
• Accessing the Contextual Toolbar
• Using Connectors
• Working with Tables
• Working with Templates
• Working with Frames
• Using Notes
• Access Controls
• Exporting a Workspace
• Real-Time Collaboration
• Notifications
• Meet Creately VIZ
• Unleashing the Power of Collaborative Brainstorming
• Uncovering the potential of Retros for all teams
• Collaborative Apps in Microsoft Teams
• Hiring a Great Fit for Your Team
• Project Management Made Easy
• Cross-Corporate Information Radiators
• Creately 4.0 - Product Walkthrough
• What's New

What is the Change Control Process in Project Management?

In the high-stakes world of project management, change is inevitable. You may have started a project with a well-defined plan, but as time marches on, things rarely go exactly as expected. Unexpected challenges, stakeholder requests, or evolving business needs can throw a wrench into your carefully laid-out project roadmap. That’s where the change control process comes into play.

The change control process is a structured method for managing changes within a project. It helps make sure that when unexpected changes occur, they are properly assessed, documented, and approved to maintain the project’s success. In this guide, we’ll provide you with clear, actionable steps and insights to master your organizational change control process and boost your project management success.

What is Change Control Process

Change control vs. change management, benefits of a change control process, change control process steps, change control process example, when to use the change control process, tips for effectively implementing a change control process.

• Ready to use
• Fully customizable template
• Get Started in seconds

The change control process is a structured and methodical approach used in project management to identify, assess, document, and manage changes to a project’s scope, schedule, and resources.

Its primary purpose is to make sure that any modifications to the original project plan are carefully evaluated, approved, and implemented in a controlled manner. This helps project managers and teams maintain project quality, minimize risks, and achieve their desired objectives, even in the face of unexpected changes or challenges.

Change control and change management are related concepts in the field of project management and organizational development, but they serve different purposes and functions. Change control process is more project-focused, making sure that changes are handled within the context of a specific project, while change management process is broader and addresses the people and organizational aspects of change. Both are essential for successful project delivery and organizational adaptation, and they often work hand in hand to achieve a common goal.

A good change control process makes sure project quality is maintained, risks are minimized, and changes are managed efficiently, all of which contribute to the success of projects and organizations.

Maintains project integrity : It makes sure that changes are thoroughly evaluated and approved, which in turn prevents any unauthorized or uncontrolled adjustments to the project’s scope, schedule, and resources. This helps maintain the project’s original objectives and prevents scope creep.

Risk mitigation : By examining and documenting changes, the process helps spot potential risks and allows for proactive risk management. This minimizes the chances of project disruptions due to unforeseen issues.

Resource allocation : It offers a structured approach to reevaluate and redistribute project resources as necessary, ensuring an efficient use of time, budget, and workforce.

Stakeholder engagement : The process often entails clear communication with stakeholders, which not only helps in addressing their needs and concerns but also improves collaboration, building a sense of trust and shared ownership in the project’s success.

Quality control : Change control guarantees that all changes adhere to established quality standards and do not compromise the project’s overall quality. This leads to a more dependable final result.

Documentation and accountability : It creates a comprehensive record of all changes and their approvals, reinforcing accountability and transparency within the project team and among stakeholders.

Cost management : Controlling changes prevents cost overruns from unauthorized or unregulated changes, so the project stays on budget.

Project success : Ultimately, the change control process contributes significantly to achieving project success by making sure that the project remains adaptable to changing circumstances, maintains quality, and delivers the desired outcomes on time and within budget.

The change control process typically involves a series of steps to effectively manage changes within a project. Here are the fundamental steps;

1. Change Request Submission

The process begins when a change is identified, often by project team members, stakeholders, or external factors. The person or team proposing the change submits a formal change request. This document should include details about the nature of the change, the reasons behind it, and its potential impact on the project’s scope, schedule, and resources.

2. Change Request Review and Evaluation

The submitted change request is then reviewed and evaluated by a designated Change Control Board (CCB) or a review team. This group assesses the necessity and feasibility of the proposed change and its potential effects on the project. They consider factors such as cost, time, quality, and risk.

3. Change Approval or Rejection

Based on the evaluation, the CCB or relevant authority makes a decision to either approve or reject the change request. If approved, the change is authorized to proceed. If rejected, the project continues according to the original plan. The decision should be well-documented.

4. Change Planning and Implementation

If the change is approved, a detailed plan is developed for its implementation. This plan outlines the specific steps required to execute the change, allocates necessary resources, and establishes a timeline for implementation. The change is then executed based on this plan, making sure that it aligns with the approved scope, schedule, and resource adjustments.

5. Testing, Validation, Documentation, and Change Closure

After the change is implemented, it’s important to validate its impact on the project and formally close the change request. This closure process helps make sure that all aspects of the change, including its testing and outcomes, are properly documented, and the project continues with the modified scope, schedule, or resources. Closing the change request marks the end of the change control process for that specific change.

Let’s consider how an organization might use the change control process in the context of implementing a new software system

Imagine a mid-sized organization that decides to upgrade its customer relationship management (CRM) software. The current CRM system is outdated and no longer meets the organization’s needs. It takes several stages to implement a new CRM system, and the change control process makes sure everything goes smoothly.

• The IT department initiates a change request, specifying the necessity for upgrading the CRM software to improve customer data management, streamline sales procedures, and improve reporting functionalities.
• The change control board, consisting of IT managers, department heads, and the project manager, evaluates the request. They look at things like budget, timeline, and possible disruptions to ongoing operations to see what impact it could have on the project.
• After a thorough evaluation, the CCB approves the change request. They decide that upgrading the CRM system aligns with the organization’s strategic goals, and the benefits outweigh potential changes to the project plan.
• The IT department creates a detailed plan for the CRM system upgrade. This plan includes selecting the new software, data migration, staff training, and revising the project timeline to accommodate the change.
• The new CRM system is tested thoroughly to make sure it works as needed. Once it passes the tests, the IT department documents the whole process, and the CRM upgrade is officially completed. The organization now uses the new system.

The change control process can be used in the following situations;

Project scope changes : Use when you want to modify what the project will include, like adding new features or requirements.

Schedule adjustments : Apply when you need to change project timelines, whether to speed up or delay the project.

Resource allocation : Use when you need to shift people, money, or equipment to different tasks.

Quality assurance : Necessary when changes could affect project quality, and you need to check their impact.

Risk management : When changes bring potential risks that must be identified, assessed, and controlled.

Regulatory compliance : Use when your project must follow industry or legal rules, and changes must meet these standards.

Stakeholder input : Apply when clients or end-users request changes to match their expectations.

Manage changes efficiently and successfully within your projects with these change control process tips.

Clear documentation

Maintain clear documentation for every change request, evaluation, approval, planning, and implementation step. This ensures accountability and transparency.

Creately tip : Use Creately’s document embedding features and integrated notes to embed and attach all necessary documents in one workspace.

Engage stakeholders

Involve key stakeholders in the change control process. Their input and buy-in are essential for successful change management.

Creately tip : Use Creately’s stakeholder engagement plan template to effectively plan how to interact and communicate with stakeholders.

Defined roles and responsibilities

Clearly define roles and responsibilities within the Change Control Board or team to avoid confusion and ensure efficient decision-making.

Creately tip : Use Creately’s pre-made project team org chart template to effectively visualize the roles, responsibilities, and reporting relationships of those involved in the process.

Risk assessment

Always consider potential risks associated with a change. Assess and mitigate them early in the process to prevent surprises.

Creately tip : Effectively identify and prioritize risks to mitigate with this risk assessment template.

Communication

Effective communication is paramount. Keep all team members and stakeholders informed throughout the process, from initiation to closure.

Creately tip : Use Creately’s communication plan template to easily plan messaging and its delivery to relevant stakeholders.

Templates and tools

Use standardized templates for change requests, evaluation forms, and other documentation to maintain consistency and streamline the process.

In summary, the change control process equips you with a structured approach to manage changes effectively. For project managers, it’s a must-have tool for evaluating, planning, and implementing changes. By following this process, you can maintain control and keep your projects on the path to success.

Join over thousands of organizations that use Creately to brainstorm, plan, analyze, and execute their projects successfully.

More Related Articles

Amanda Athuraliya is the communication specialist/content writer at Creately, online diagramming and collaboration tool. She is an avid reader, a budding writer and a passionate researcher who loves to write about all kinds of topics.

• Change Timelines
• Scope and Change Management
• Potential Issues
• Data Dictionary
• Security and Compliance
• Salesforce Admins
• IT & Business Systems
• InfoSec & Data Governance
• Go-To-Market Leaders
• Consultants
• Minimize Risk & Elevate Salesforce Data Security
• Scope SFDC Projects Confidently
• Increase Revenue Operations Team Efficiency
• Maximize Your Salesforce Shield Investment
• Culture & Values
• Demo & Product Library
• Webinars and Podcasts
• TRY SONAR FREE

Change Control: What It Is and Why It’s Important for Mitigating Risk

If you’re a RevOps professional, more than likely you made some changes to your tech stack this week— or you’re planning to. Integrating systems, adding new picklist values, changing page layouts… all of these changes have an impact on your tech stack and the teams that use them. 

Ideally, that impact is for the better. We’ve all had the unfortunate experience of making changes that didn’t yield the intended results or created an even bigger problem than the one they were meant to solve in the first place. 

The only way to ensure that a change is worthy of being made and anticipate its risks is to evaluate it. That’s why it’s important to incorporate change control practices into your team’s processes. Without change control, you can find yourself buried in user requests, wasting time on unnecessary changes, increasing the amount of tech debt you have to manage, and dealing with outcomes you didn’t anticipate. Considering that RevOps teams already spend 20% of their time fixing things, effective change control can help you proactively prevent these time-consuming errors in the first place.

Here’s what you need to know to implement change control effectively.

What is change control?

Change control (sometimes referred to as change control management) is the systematic approach to assessing and authorizing potential changes. Every potential change, no matter how small, invites risk. Change control practices enable RevOps teams to prepare for that risk and evaluate whether changes are needed in the first place. 

It also gives RevOps teams an objective framework for responding to user requests and managing their own ideas. Between change requests and internally-developed ideas, there’s no shortage of changes for RevOps teams to implement. Adhering to a change control process helps you to stay aligned with departmental and organizational goals, as well as budget and timing constraints. 

Change control vs. change management

Change control and change management are closely related but not quite the same. Change control is focused on evaluating potential changes, whereas change management is the full process of planning, implementing, and tracking change. In some cases, change control is considered to be the first step of a comprehensive change management strategy. 

Whether you view them as separate processes or as integrated methods to manage change, both are critical to reducing risk. An effective change control process ensures that the changes on your change management plan should actually be there, and that your plan accurately accounts for any secondary effects once the transition has been made. 

The RevOp change control processes

Well-executed change control improves RevOps productivity because effective change control processes follow a systematic approach. Since most changes start with a user request form, collecting that data should be the first step of your change control process. The request form should be standardized and capture all of the information needed to evaluate whether a change needs to be made. Consider completing the request form for ideas that are generated within the RevOps team as well, to ensure all potential changes are funneled through the same process.

Change impact assessment

With the request form completed, the next step is to perform a change impact assessment. You can create an impact assessment template in a spreadsheet that captures the factors you want to evaluate. We recommend you include the following factors on your change assessment template:

• Which users will be affected by this change? How?
• Are there any stakeholders that should be involved in assessing or implementing the change?
• Which systems, processes, and objects will be impacted? (Hint: Sonar can help you with this question!)
• Are there clear expected outcomes?
• What is the priority level?
• Are there any potential hurdles to making the change?

The assessment is central to change control processes, and this is when you’re likely to identify potential risks so you can address them in your change management plan. 

Communicate

Based on the result of the assessment, you can decide whether to move forward with a change immediately, hold off until a later date, or decline to make the change altogether. If you decide to delay or decline making a change, it’s important to convey that to the requestor and any other relevant stakeholders. Conversely, if you decide to make a change that will create some disruption for users, it’s important to communicate why the change is happening, and how it will benefit them. 

No one wants to hear the word “no,” nor do they want to hear that they’ll have to deal with inconvenient changes. The assessment template gives you an objective framework upon which to base your decisions and convey your logic to stakeholders. The more consistently you use it, the more that you and go-to-market teams can understand the guidelines for what makes a worthy change. 

RevOps change control FAQs

What are the 3 main objectives of change control.

Change control helps RevOps teams stay focused on the work that matters by meeting the following three objectives:

• Prevent unnecessary changes from being made
• Identify impacts of change and mitigate potential disruptions
• Ensure that all changes follow systematic processes from the time they are raised or requested

What is change control with example?

Change control has a wide variety of applications within RevOps and beyond. One common example of change control in action is the process involved in sunsetting outdated software. IT departments, along with stakeholders from procurement and other relevant teams assess whether the system needs to be replaced and analyze the risks. 

If they decide to sunset the system, they begin the process of working it into their release schedule. If not, they communicate to the stakeholders why the legacy system can’t be replaced at that time. 

Change is risky, but it doesn’t have to be 

Making changes to complex, interconnected tech stacks can be risky. Change control provides a way to mitigate that risk by funneling potential changes through an evaluation process before they’re added to the schedule. One of the challenges with change control in Salesforce is being able to predict how other systems and Salesforce objects will be impacted by the change. 

Using a Change Intelligence tool like Sonar helps to make this aspect of the change control process less opaque. You can visualize the impact of your changes in real-time, before you make them, right inside Salesforce and Pardot. Want to see it in action? Try it free today . 

Previous Post Release Management: The Complete Guide

Next post what is risk management everything revops teams should know.

Comments are closed.

Change Intelligence Customers Pricing Try Sonar Free Login Contact Us

By Role Salesforce Admins Operations Teams IT & Business Systems Go-To-Market Leaders CXOs Consultants

By Use Case Minimize Your Salesforce Risk Scope SFDC Projects Confidently Increase Revenue Operations Team Efficiency

Blueprint Change Timelines Scope & Change Management Potential Issues Data Dictionary

TRUST CENTER Security

APP FieldSpy

COMMUNITY WizOps

Our Story Culture + Values Careers

Blog Partners Demos and Product Library

Help Center Terms of Use Privacy Policy .

Help Center Terms of Use Privacy Policy

Risk management framework: Change Control Management

A major element of the risk control process is change control management. Every detail of a project plan will not materialize as expected. Coping with and controlling project changes present a formidable challenge for most project managers. Changes come from many sources such as the project customer, owner, project manager, team members, and occurrence of risk events.

Most changes easily fall into three categories:

• Scope changes in the form of design or additions represent big changes; for example, customer requests for a new feature or a redesign that will improve the product.
• Implementation of contingency plans, when risk events occur, represent changes in baseline costs and schedules.
• Improvement changes suggested by project team members represent another category.

Because change is inevitable, a well-defined change control and review process should be set up early in the project planning cycle.

Change Control Structure

Change management systems involve reporting, controlling, and recording changes to the project baseline.(Note: Some organizations consider change control systems part of configuration management.) In practice most change management systems are designed to accomplish the following:

• Identify proposed changes.
• List expected effects of proposed change(s) on schedule and budget.
• Review, evaluate, and approve or disapprove changes formally.
• Negotiate and resolve conflicts of change, conditions, and cost.
• Communicate changes to parties affected.
• Assign for implementing change.
• Adjust master schedule and budget.
• Track all changes that are to be implemented.

As part of the project communication plan, stakeholders define up front the communication and decision-making process that will be used to evaluate and accept changes.

The process can be captured in a flow diagram like the one presented in the figure below.

On small projects this process may simply entail approval of a small group of stakeholders. On larger projects more elaborate decision-making processes are established, with different processes being used for different kinds of change.

For example, changes in performance requirements may require multiple sign-offs, including the project sponsor and client, while switching suppliers may be authorized by the project manager.

Regardless of the nature of the project, the goal is to establish the process for introducing necessary changes in the project in a timely and effective manner.

Of particular importance is assessing the impact of the change on the project. Often solutions to immediate problems have adverse consequences on other aspects of a project.

For example, in overcoming a problem with the exhaust system for a hybrid automobile, the design engineers contributed to the prototype exceeding weight parameters.

It is important that the implications of changes are assessed by people with appropriate expertise and perspective.

On construction projects this is often the responsibility of the architecture firm, while “software architects” perform a similar function on software development efforts.

Organizations use change request forms and logs to track proposed changes. Typically change request forms include a description of the change, the impact of not approving the change, the impact of the change on project scope/schedule/cost, and defined signature paths for review as well as a tracking log number.

An abridged version of a change request template can be found following the link. These logs are used to monitor change requests. They typically summarize the status of all outstanding change requests and include such useful information as source and date of the change, document codes for related information, cost estimates, and the current status of the request.

Every approved change must be identified and integrated into the plan of record through changes in the project WBS and baseline schedule. The plan of record is the current official plan for the project in terms of scope, budget, and schedule. The plan of record serves as a change management benchmark for future change requests as well as the baseline for evaluating project progress.

Key to a Successful Change Control System

If the change control system is not integrated with the WBS and baseline, project plans and control will soon self-destruct. Thus, one of the keys to a successful change control process is document, document, document! The benefits derived from change control systems are the following:

• Inconsequential changes are discouraged by the formal process.
• Costs of changes are maintained in a log.
• Integrity of the WBS and performance measures is maintained.
• Allocation and use of budget and management reserve funds ale tracked.
• Responsibility for implementation is clarified.
• Effect of changes is visible to all parties involved.
• Implementation of change is monitored.
• Scope changes will be quickly reflected in baseline and performance measures.

Clearly, change control is important and requires that someone or some group be responsible for approving changes, keeping the process updated, and communicating changes to the project team and relevant stakeholders.

Project control depends heavily on keeping the change control process current. This historical record can be used for satisfying customer inquiries, identifying problems in post-project audits, and estimating future project costs.

By Alex Puscasu

I am a Project Management practitioner with more than 5 years experience in hardware and software implementation projects. Also a bit of a geek and a great WordPress enthusiast. I hope you enjoy the content, and I encourage you to share your knowledge with the world.

• Global (EN)
• Albania (en)
• Algeria (fr)
• Argentina (es)
• Armenia (en)
• Australia (en)
• Austria (de)
• Austria (en)
• Azerbaijan (en)
• Bahamas (en)
• Bahrain (en)
• Bangladesh (en)
• Barbados (en)
• Belgium (en)
• Belgium (nl)
• Bermuda (en)
• Bosnia and Herzegovina (en)
• Brasil (pt)
• Brazil (en)
• British Virgin Islands (en)
• Bulgaria (en)
• Cambodia (en)
• Cameroon (fr)
• Canada (en)
• Canada (fr)
• Cayman Islands (en)
• Channel Islands (en)
• Colombia (es)
• Costa Rica (es)
• Croatia (en)
• Cyprus (en)
• Czech Republic (cs)
• Czech Republic (en)
• DR Congo (fr)
• Denmark (da)
• Denmark (en)
• Ecuador (es)
• Estonia (en)
• Estonia (et)
• Finland (fi)
• France (fr)
• Georgia (en)
• Germany (de)
• Germany (en)
• Gibraltar (en)
• Greece (el)
• Greece (en)
• Hong Kong SAR (en)
• Hungary (en)
• Hungary (hu)
• Iceland (is)
• Indonesia (en)
• Ireland (en)
• Isle of Man (en)
• Israel (en)
• Ivory Coast (fr)
• Jamaica (en)
• Jordan (en)
• Kazakhstan (en)
• Kazakhstan (kk)
• Kazakhstan (ru)
• Kuwait (en)
• Latvia (en)
• Latvia (lv)
• Lebanon (en)
• Lithuania (en)
• Lithuania (lt)
• Luxembourg (en)
• Macau SAR (en)
• Malaysia (en)
• Mauritius (en)
• Mexico (es)
• Moldova (en)
• Monaco (en)
• Monaco (fr)
• Mongolia (en)
• Montenegro (en)
• Mozambique (en)
• Myanmar (en)
• Namibia (en)
• Netherlands (en)
• Netherlands (nl)
• New Zealand (en)
• Nigeria (en)
• North Macedonia (en)
• Norway (nb)
• Pakistan (en)
• Panama (es)
• Philippines (en)
• Poland (en)
• Poland (pl)
• Portugal (en)
• Portugal (pt)
• Romania (en)
• Romania (ro)
• Saudi Arabia (en)
• Serbia (en)
• Singapore (en)
• Slovakia (en)
• Slovakia (sk)
• Slovenia (en)
• South Africa (en)
• Sri Lanka (en)
• Sweden (sv)
• Switzerland (de)
• Switzerland (en)
• Switzerland (fr)
• Taiwan (en)
• Taiwan (zh)
• Thailand (en)
• Trinidad and Tobago (en)
• Tunisia (en)
• Tunisia (fr)
• Turkey (en)
• Turkey (tr)
• Ukraine (en)
• Ukraine (ru)
• Ukraine (uk)
• United Arab Emirates (en)
• United Kingdom (en)
• United States (en)
• Uruguay (es)
• Uzbekistan (en)
• Uzbekistan (ru)
• Venezuela (es)
• Vietnam (en)
• Vietnam (vi)
• Zambia (en)
• Zimbabwe (en)
• Financial Reporting View
• Women's Leadership
• Corporate Finance
• Board Leadership
• Executive Education

Fresh thinking and actionable insights that address critical issues your organization faces.

• Insights by Industry
• Insights by Topic

KPMG's multi-disciplinary approach and deep, practical industry knowledge help clients meet challenges and respond to opportunities.

• Advisory Services
• Audit Services
• Tax Services

Services to meet your business goals

Technology Alliances

KPMG has market-leading alliances with many of the world's leading software and services vendors.

Helping clients meet their business challenges begins with an in-depth understanding of the industries in which they work. That’s why KPMG LLP established its industry-driven structure. In fact, KPMG LLP was the first of the Big Four firms to organize itself along the same industry lines as clients.

• Our Industries

How We Work

We bring together passionate problem-solvers, innovative technologies, and full-service capabilities to create opportunity with every insight.

• What sets us apart

Careers & Culture

What is culture? Culture is how we do things around here. It is the combination of a predominant mindset, actions (both big and small) that we all commit to every day, and the underlying processes, programs and systems supporting how work gets done.

Relevant Results

Sorry, there are no results matching your search., internal audit is a change leader: internal audit as the enterprise change leader in our dynamic and ever-changing world.

Webcast overview

Change is constant across our market and within our businesses. How can the IA function exercise its influence and insights to support the enterprise agenda and become a change leader?

In today’s dynamic business environment, internal audit (IA) leaders serve as change leaders and influence how the business can adapt to be resilient.  Indeed, the IA function can serve as truth tellers using thoughtful methods and culturally relevant communication that can drive organizational progress.   

Join KPMG and a cast of luminaries for the next installment of our CAE Share Forum series, as we talk about our opportunity for change leadership.

A wide variety of topics will be covered as you will hear from:

• Our  keynote speaker   Alex Pease ,  Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President of WestRock , who will be sharing a perspective on how to successfully harness the opportunities that change creates for an executive team
• A panel of chief audit executives (CAEs)  discussing :

              -  The catalysts for change unlocking IA’s potential to drive organizational changes

              - The techniques CAEs use to inspire their team to adopt and deploy a change leadership mindset

• An  audit committee member providing insights into how the IA  function can serve as indispensable partner to the board in driving change
• Alex Pease, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, WestRock
• Wale Akinwande , Senior Vice President and Chief Auditor, S&P Global
• Molly Osborne , Vice President and Chief Auditor, IBM Corporation
• Russ Charlton , Chief Audit Executive, Advance
• Scott Kenney , Chief Audit Executive, Bloomberg
• Mark Martinelli, Independent Board Director, Chain Bridge Bank, N.A

Meet our webcast team

Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, WestRock

Alex Pease is chief financial officer and executive vice president. He brings more than 20 years of experience in corporate strategy, M&A, capital markets, portfolio optimization and broad-based business transformation.

Most recently, Alex served as the executive vice president and chief financial officer at CommScope Holding Company, a $8.5 billion leader in the telecommunications and networking equipment technology space with more than 32,000 employees operating in 130 countries worldwide. 

He previously held chief financial officer positions at Snyder’s-Lance, Inc., and EnPro Industries and was a principal at McKinsey & Company in various leadership positions.

Alex served as a U.S. Navy SEAL from 1994-2000, departing as a platoon commander. He holds a Bachelor of Science degree from the U.S. Naval Academy and an MBA from The Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College.

Explore more

2023 KPMG Generative AI Survey

An exclusive KPMG survey shows how top leaders are approaching Generative AI

The future of Internal Audit

Manage disruption while building stakeholder trust

On the CAE Agenda Q3-2023

The latest trends affecting the role of internal audit

Thank you for contacting KPMG. We will respond to you as soon as possible.

Contact KPMG

By submitting, you agree that KPMG LLP may process any personal information you provide pursuant to KPMG LLP's Privacy Statement .

Job seekers

Visit our careers section or search our jobs database.

Use the RFP submission form to detail the services KPMG can help assist you with.

Office locations

International hotline

You can confidentially report concerns to the KPMG International hotline

Press contacts

Do you need to speak with our Press Office? Here's how to get in touch.

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

• View all journals
• Explore content
• About the journal
• Publish with us
• Sign up for alerts
• Published: 08 May 2024

A meta-analysis on global change drivers and the risk of infectious disease

• Michael B. Mahon   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-9436-2998 1 , 2   na1 ,
• Alexandra Sack 1 , 3   na1 ,
• O. Alejandro Aleuy 1 ,
• Carly Barbera 1 ,
• Ethan Brown   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-0827-4906 1 ,
• Heather Buelow   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-3535-4151 1 ,
• David J. Civitello 4 ,
• Jeremy M. Cohen   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-9611-9150 5 ,
• Luz A. de Wit   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-3045-4017 1 ,
• Meghan Forstchen 1 , 3 ,
• Fletcher W. Halliday 6 ,
• Patrick Heffernan 1 ,
• Sarah A. Knutie 7 ,
• Alexis Korotasz 1 ,
• Joanna G. Larson   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-1401-7837 1 ,
• Samantha L. Rumschlag   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-3125-8402 1 , 2 ,
• Emily Selland   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-4527-297X 1 , 3 ,
• Alexander Shepack 1 ,
• Nitin Vincent   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-8593-1116 1 &
• Jason R. Rohr   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-8285-4912 1 , 2 , 3   na1  

Nature ( 2024 ) Cite this article

6401 Accesses

600 Altmetric

Metrics details

• Infectious diseases

Anthropogenic change is contributing to the rise in emerging infectious diseases, which are significantly correlated with socioeconomic, environmental and ecological factors 1 . Studies have shown that infectious disease risk is modified by changes to biodiversity 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , climate change 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , chemical pollution 12 , 13 , 14 , landscape transformations 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 , 19 , 20 and species introductions 21 . However, it remains unclear which global change drivers most increase disease and under what contexts. Here we amassed a dataset from the literature that contains 2,938 observations of infectious disease responses to global change drivers across 1,497 host–parasite combinations, including plant, animal and human hosts. We found that biodiversity loss, chemical pollution, climate change and introduced species are associated with increases in disease-related end points or harm, whereas urbanization is associated with decreases in disease end points. Natural biodiversity gradients, deforestation and forest fragmentation are comparatively unimportant or idiosyncratic as drivers of disease. Overall, these results are consistent across human and non-human diseases. Nevertheless, context-dependent effects of the global change drivers on disease were found to be common. The findings uncovered by this meta-analysis should help target disease management and surveillance efforts towards global change drivers that increase disease. Specifically, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, managing ecosystem health, and preventing biological invasions and biodiversity loss could help to reduce the burden of plant, animal and human diseases, especially when coupled with improvements to social and economic determinants of health.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Access Nature and 54 other Nature Portfolio journals

Get Nature+, our best-value online-access subscription

24,99 € / 30 days

cancel any time

Subscribe to this journal

Receive 51 print issues and online access

185,98 € per year

only 3,65 € per issue

Buy this article

• Purchase on Springer Link
• Instant access to full article PDF

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Similar content being viewed by others

Towards common ground in the biodiversity–disease debate

Biological invasions facilitate zoonotic disease emergences

Measuring the shape of the biodiversity-disease relationship across systems reveals new findings and key gaps

Data availability.

All the data for this Article have been deposited at Zenodo ( https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8169979 ) 52 and GitHub ( https://github.com/mahonmb/GCDofDisease ) 53 .

Code availability

All the code for this Article has been deposited at Zenodo ( https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8169979 ) 52 and GitHub ( https://github.com/mahonmb/GCDofDisease ) 53 . R markdown is provided in Supplementary Data 1 .

Jones, K. E. et al. Global trends in emerging infectious diseases. Nature 451 , 990–994 (2008).

Article   ADS   CAS   PubMed   PubMed Central   Google Scholar  

Civitello, D. J. et al. Biodiversity inhibits parasites: broad evidence for the dilution effect. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci USA 112 , 8667–8671 (2015).

Halliday, F. W., Rohr, J. R. & Laine, A.-L. Biodiversity loss underlies the dilution effect of biodiversity. Ecol. Lett. 23 , 1611–1622 (2020).

Article   PubMed   PubMed Central   Google Scholar  

Rohr, J. R. et al. Towards common ground in the biodiversity–disease debate. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 4 , 24–33 (2020).

Article   PubMed   Google Scholar  

Johnson, P. T. J., Ostfeld, R. S. & Keesing, F. Frontiers in research on biodiversity and disease. Ecol. Lett. 18 , 1119–1133 (2015).

Keesing, F. et al. Impacts of biodiversity on the emergence and transmission of infectious diseases. Nature 468 , 647–652 (2010).

Cohen, J. M., Sauer, E. L., Santiago, O., Spencer, S. & Rohr, J. R. Divergent impacts of warming weather on wildlife disease risk across climates. Science 370 , eabb1702 (2020).

Article   CAS   PubMed   PubMed Central   Google Scholar  

Rohr, J. R. et al. Frontiers in climate change-disease research. Trends Ecol. Evol. 26 , 270–277 (2011).

Altizer, S., Ostfeld, R. S., Johnson, P. T. J., Kutz, S. & Harvell, C. D. Climate change and infectious diseases: from evidence to a predictive framework. Science 341 , 514–519 (2013).

Article   ADS   CAS   PubMed   Google Scholar  

Rohr, J. R. & Cohen, J. M. Understanding how temperature shifts could impact infectious disease. PLoS Biol. 18 , e3000938 (2020).

Carlson, C. J. et al. Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk. Nature 607 , 555–562 (2022).

Halstead, N. T. et al. Agrochemicals increase risk of human schistosomiasis by supporting higher densities of intermediate hosts. Nat. Commun. 9 , 837 (2018).

Article   ADS   PubMed   PubMed Central   Google Scholar  

Martin, L. B., Hopkins, W. A., Mydlarz, L. D. & Rohr, J. R. The effects of anthropogenic global changes on immune functions and disease resistance. Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. 1195 , 129–148 (2010).

Rumschlag, S. L. et al. Effects of pesticides on exposure and susceptibility to parasites can be generalised to pesticide class and type in aquatic communities. Ecol. Lett. 22 , 962–972 (2019).

Allan, B. F., Keesing, F. & Ostfeld, R. S. Effect of forest fragmentation on Lyme disease risk. Conserv. Biol. 17 , 267–272 (2003).

Article   Google Scholar  

Brearley, G. et al. Wildlife disease prevalence in human‐modified landscapes. Biol. Rev. 88 , 427–442 (2013).

Rohr, J. R. et al. Emerging human infectious diseases and the links to global food production. Nat. Sustain. 2 , 445–456 (2019).

Bradley, C. A. & Altizer, S. Urbanization and the ecology of wildlife diseases. Trends Ecol. Evol. 22 , 95–102 (2007).

Allen, T. et al. Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases. Nat. Commun. 8 , 1124 (2017).

Sokolow, S. H. et al. Ecological and socioeconomic factors associated with the human burden of environmentally mediated pathogens: a global analysis. Lancet Planet. Health 6 , e870–e879 (2022).

Young, H. S., Parker, I. M., Gilbert, G. S., Guerra, A. S. & Nunn, C. L. Introduced species, disease ecology, and biodiversity–disease relationships. Trends Ecol. Evol. 32 , 41–54 (2017).

Barouki, R. et al. The COVID-19 pandemic and global environmental change: emerging research needs. Environ. Int. 146 , 106272 (2021).

Article   CAS   PubMed   Google Scholar  

Nova, N., Athni, T. S., Childs, M. L., Mandle, L. & Mordecai, E. A. Global change and emerging infectious diseases. Ann. Rev. Resour. Econ. 14 , 333–354 (2021).

Zhang, L. et al. Biological invasions facilitate zoonotic disease emergences. Nat. Commun. 13 , 1762 (2022).

Olival, K. J. et al. Host and viral traits predict zoonotic spillover from mammals. Nature 546 , 646–650 (2017).

Guth, S. et al. Bats host the most virulent—but not the most dangerous—zoonotic viruses. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 119 , e2113628119 (2022).

Nelson, G. C. et al. in Ecosystems and Human Well-Being (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment) Vol. 2 (eds Rola, A. et al) Ch. 7, 172–222 (Island Press, 2005).

Read, A. F., Graham, A. L. & Raberg, L. Animal defenses against infectious agents: is damage control more important than pathogen control? PLoS Biol. 6 , 2638–2641 (2008).

Article   CAS   Google Scholar  

Medzhitov, R., Schneider, D. S. & Soares, M. P. Disease tolerance as a defense strategy. Science 335 , 936–941 (2012).

Torchin, M. E. & Mitchell, C. E. Parasites, pathogens, and invasions by plants and animals. Front. Ecol. Environ. 2 , 183–190 (2004).

Bellay, S., de Oliveira, E. F., Almeida-Neto, M. & Takemoto, R. M. Ectoparasites are more vulnerable to host extinction than co-occurring endoparasites: evidence from metazoan parasites of freshwater and marine fishes. Hydrobiologia 847 , 2873–2882 (2020).

Scheffer, M. Critical Transitions in Nature and Society Vol. 16 (Princeton Univ. Press, 2020).

Rohr, J. R. et al. A planetary health innovation for disease, food and water challenges in Africa. Nature 619 , 782–787 (2023).

Reaser, J. K., Witt, A., Tabor, G. M., Hudson, P. J. & Plowright, R. K. Ecological countermeasures for preventing zoonotic disease outbreaks: when ecological restoration is a human health imperative. Restor. Ecol. 29 , e13357 (2021).

Hopkins, S. R. et al. Evidence gaps and diversity among potential win–win solutions for conservation and human infectious disease control. Lancet Planet. Health 6 , e694–e705 (2022).

Mitchell, C. E. & Power, A. G. Release of invasive plants from fungal and viral pathogens. Nature 421 , 625–627 (2003).

Chamberlain, S. A. & Szöcs, E. taxize: taxonomic search and retrieval in R. F1000Research 2 , 191 (2013).

Newman, M. Fundamentals of Ecotoxicology (CRC Press/Taylor & Francis Group, 2010).

Rohatgi, A. WebPlotDigitizer v.4.5 (2021); automeris.io/WebPlotDigitizer .

Lüdecke, D. esc: effect size computation for meta analysis (version 0.5.1). Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1249218 (2019).

Lipsey, M. W. & Wilson, D. B. Practical Meta-Analysis (SAGE, 2001).

R Core Team. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing Vol. 2022 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2020); www.R-project.org/ .

Viechtbauer, W. Conducting meta-analyses in R with the metafor package. J. Stat. Softw. 36 , 1–48 (2010).

Pustejovsky, J. E. & Tipton, E. Meta-analysis with robust variance estimation: Expanding the range of working models. Prev. Sci. 23 , 425–438 (2022).

Lenth, R. emmeans: estimated marginal means, aka least-squares means. R package v.1.5.1 (2020).

Bartoń, K. MuMIn: multi-modal inference. Model selection and model averaging based on information criteria (AICc and alike) (2019).

Burnham, K. P. & Anderson, D. R. Multimodel inference: understanding AIC and BIC in model selection. Sociol. Methods Res. 33 , 261–304 (2004).

Article   MathSciNet   Google Scholar  

Marks‐Anglin, A. & Chen, Y. A historical review of publication bias. Res. Synth. Methods 11 , 725–742 (2020).

Nakagawa, S. et al. Methods for testing publication bias in ecological and evolutionary meta‐analyses. Methods Ecol. Evol. 13 , 4–21 (2022).

Gurevitch, J., Koricheva, J., Nakagawa, S. & Stewart, G. Meta-analysis and the science of research synthesis. Nature 555 , 175–182 (2018).

Bates, D., Mächler, M., Bolker, B. & Walker, S. Fitting linear mixed-effects models using lme4. J. Stat. Softw. 67 , 1–48 (2015).

Mahon, M. B. et al. Data and code for ‘A meta-analysis on global change drivers and the risk of infectious disease’. Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8169979 (2024).

Mahon, M. B. et al. Data and code for ‘A meta-analysis on global change drivers and the risk of infectious disease’. GitHub github.com/mahonmb/GCDofDisease (2024).

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank C. Mitchell for contributing data on enemy release; L. Albert and B. Shayhorn for assisting with data collection; J. Gurevitch, M. Lajeunesse and G. Stewart for providing comments on an earlier version of this manuscript; and C. Carlson and two anonymous reviewers for improving this paper. This research was supported by grants from the National Science Foundation (DEB-2109293, DEB-2017785, DEB-1518681, IOS-1754868), National Institutes of Health (R01TW010286) and US Department of Agriculture (2021-38420-34065) to J.R.R.; a US Geological Survey Powell grant to J.R.R. and S.L.R.; University of Connecticut Start-up funds to S.A.K.; grants from the National Science Foundation (IOS-1755002) and National Institutes of Health (R01 AI150774) to D.J.C.; and an Ambizione grant (PZ00P3_202027) from the Swiss National Science Foundation to F.W.H. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript.

Author information

These authors contributed equally: Michael B. Mahon, Alexandra Sack, Jason R. Rohr

Authors and Affiliations

Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA

Michael B. Mahon, Alexandra Sack, O. Alejandro Aleuy, Carly Barbera, Ethan Brown, Heather Buelow, Luz A. de Wit, Meghan Forstchen, Patrick Heffernan, Alexis Korotasz, Joanna G. Larson, Samantha L. Rumschlag, Emily Selland, Alexander Shepack, Nitin Vincent & Jason R. Rohr

Environmental Change Initiative, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA

Michael B. Mahon, Samantha L. Rumschlag & Jason R. Rohr

Eck Institute of Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA

Alexandra Sack, Meghan Forstchen, Emily Selland & Jason R. Rohr

Department of Biology, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA

David J. Civitello

Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA

Jeremy M. Cohen

Department of Botany and Plant Pathology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA

Fletcher W. Halliday

Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Institute for Systems Genomics, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA

Sarah A. Knutie

You can also search for this author in PubMed   Google Scholar

Contributions

J.R.R. conceptualized the study. All of the authors contributed to the methodology. All of the authors contributed to investigation. Visualization was performed by M.B.M. The initial study list and related information were compiled by D.J.C., J.M.C., F.W.H., S.A.K., S.L.R. and J.R.R. Data extraction was performed by M.B.M., A.S., O.A.A., C.B., E.B., H.B., L.A.d.W., M.F., P.H., A.K., J.G.L., E.S., A.S. and N.V. Data were checked for accuracy by M.B.M. and A.S. Analyses were performed by M.B.M. and J.R.R. Funding was acquired by D.J.C., J.R.R., S.A.K. and S.L.R. Project administration was done by J.R.R. J.R.R. supervised the study. J.R.R. and M.B.M. wrote the original draft. All of the authors reviewed and edited the manuscript. J.R.R. and M.B.M. responded to reviewers.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jason R. Rohr .

Ethics declarations

Competing interests.

The authors declare no competing interests.

Peer review

Peer review information.

Nature thanks Colin Carlson and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work. Peer reviewer reports are available.

Additional information

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Extended data figures and tables

Extended data fig. 1 prisma flowchart..

The PRISMA flow diagram of the search and selection of studies included in this meta-analysis. Note that 77 studies came from the Halliday et al. 3 database on biodiversity change.

Extended Data Fig. 2 Summary of the number of studies (A-F) and parasite taxa (G-L) in the infectious disease database across ecological contexts.

The contexts are global change driver ( A , G ), parasite taxa ( B , H ), host taxa ( C , I ), experimental venue ( D , J ), study habitat ( E , K ), and human parasite status ( F , L ).

Extended Data Fig. 3 Summary of the number of effect sizes (A-I), studies (J-R), and parasite taxa (S-a) in the infectious disease database for various parasite and host contexts.

Shown are parasite type ( A , J , S ), host thermy ( B , K , T ), vector status ( C , L , U ), vector-borne status ( D , M , V ), parasite transmission ( E , N , W ), free living stages ( F , O , X ), host (e.g. disease, host growth, host survival) or parasite (e.g. parasite abundance, prevalence, fecundity) endpoint ( G , P , Y ), micro- vs macroparasite ( H , Q , Z ), and zoonotic status ( I , R , a ).

Extended Data Fig. 4 The effects of global change drivers and subsequent subcategories on disease responses with Log Response Ratio instead of Hedge’s g.

Here, Log Response Ratio shows similar trends to that of Hedge’s g presented in the main text. The displayed points represent the mean predicted values (with 95% confidence intervals) from a meta-analytical model with separate random intercepts for study. Points that do not share letters are significantly different from one another (p < 0.05) based on a two-sided Tukey’s posthoc multiple comparison test with adjustment for multiple comparisons. See Table S 3 for pairwise comparison results. Effects of the five common global change drivers ( A ) have the same directionality, similar magnitude, and significance as those presented in Fig. 2 . Global change driver effects are significant when confidence intervals do not overlap with zero and explicitly tested with two-tailed t-test (indicated by asterisks; t 80.62  = 2.16, p = 0.034 for CP; t 71.42  = 2.10, p = 0.039 for CC; t 131.79  = −3.52, p < 0.001 for HLC; t 61.9  = 2.10, p = 0.040 for IS). The subcategories ( B ) also show similar patterns as those presented in Fig. 3 . Subcategories are significant when confidence intervals do not overlap with zero and were explicitly tested with two-tailed one sample t-test (t 30.52  = 2.17, p = 0.038 for CO 2 ; t 40.03  = 4.64, p < 0.001 for Enemy Release; t 47.45  = 2.18, p = 0.034 for Mean Temperature; t 110.81  = −4.05, p < 0.001 for Urbanization); all other subcategories have p > 0.20. Note that effect size and study numbers are lower here than in Figs. 3 and 4 , because log response ratios cannot be calculated for studies that provide coefficients (e.g., odds ratio) rather than raw data; as such, all observations within BC did not have associated RR values. Despite strong differences in sample size, patterns are consistent across effect sizes, and therefore, we can be confident that the results presented in the main text are not biased because of effect size selection.

Extended Data Fig. 5 Average standard errors of the effect sizes (A) and sample sizes per effect size (B) for each of the five global change drivers.

The displayed points represent the mean predicted values (with 95% confidence intervals) from the generalized linear mixed effects models with separate random intercepts for study (Gaussian distribution for standard error model, A ; Poisson distribution for sample size model, B ). Points that do not share letters are significantly different from one another (p < 0.05) based on a two-sided Tukey’s posthoc multiple comparison test with adjustment for multiple comparisons. Sample sizes (number of studies, n, and effect sizes, k) for each driver are as follows: n = 77, k = 392 for BC; n = 124, k = 364 for CP; n = 202, k = 380 for CC; n = 517, k = 1449 for HLC; n = 96, k = 355 for IS.

Extended Data Fig. 6 Forest plots of effect sizes, associated variances, and relative weights (A), Funnel plots (B), and Egger’s Test plots (C) for each of the five global change drivers and leave-one-out publication bias analyses (D).

In panel A , points are the individual effect sizes (Hedge’s G), error bars are standard errors of the effect size, and size of the points is the relative weight of the observation in the model, with larger points representing observations with higher weight in the model. Sample sizes are provided for each effect size in the meta-analytic database. Effect sizes were plotted in a random order. Egger’s tests indicated significant asymmetries (p < 0.05) in Biodiversity Change (worst asymmetry – likely not bias, just real effect of positive relationship between diversity and disease), Climate Change – (weak asymmetry, again likely not bias, climate change generally increases disease), and Introduced Species (relatively weak asymmetry – unclear whether this is a bias, may be driven by some outliers). No significant asymmetries (p > 0.05) were found in Chemical Pollution and Habitat Loss/Change, suggesting negligible publication bias in reported disease responses across these global change drivers ( B , C ). Egger’s test included publication year as moderator but found no significant relationship between Hedge’s g and publication year (p > 0.05) implying no temporal bias in effect size magnitude or direction. In panel D , the horizontal red lines denote the grand mean and SE of Hedge’s g and (g = 0.1009, SE = 0.0338). Grey points and error bars indicate the Hedge’s g and SEs, respectively, using the leave-one-out method (grand mean is recalculated after a given study is removed from dataset). While the removal of certain studies resulted in values that differed from the grand mean, all estimated Hedge’s g values fell well within the standard error of the grand mean. This sensitivity analysis indicates that our results were robust to the iterative exclusion of individual studies.

Extended Data Fig. 7 The effects of habitat loss/change on disease depend on parasite taxa and land use conversion contexts.

A) Enemy type influences the magnitude of the effect of urbanization on disease: helminths, protists, and arthropods were all negatively associated with urbanization, whereas viruses were non-significantly positively associated with urbanization. B) Reference (control) land use type influences the magnitude of the effect of urbanization on disease: disease was reduced in urban settings compared to rural and peri-urban settings, whereas there were no differences in disease along urbanization gradients or between urban and natural settings. C) The effect of forest fragmentation depends on whether a large/continuous habitat patch is compared to a small patch or whether disease it is measured along an increasing fragmentation gradient (Z = −2.828, p = 0.005). Conversely, the effect of deforestation on disease does not depend on whether the habitat has been destroyed and allowed to regrow (e.g., clearcutting, second growth forests, etc.) or whether it has been replaced with agriculture (e.g., row crop, agroforestry, livestock grazing; Z = 1.809, p = 0.0705). The displayed points represent the mean predicted values (with 95% confidence intervals) from a metafor model where the response variable was a Hedge’s g (representing the effect on an infectious disease endpoint relative to control), study was treated as a random effect, and the independent variables included enemy type (A), reference land use type (B), or land use conversion type (C). Data for (A) and (B) were only those studies that were within the “urbanization” subcategory; data for (C) were only those studies that were within the “deforestation” and “forest fragmentation” subcategories. Sample sizes (number of studies, n, and effect sizes, k) in (A) for each enemy are n = 48, k = 98 for Virus; n = 193, k = 343 for Protist; n = 159, k = 490 for Helminth; n = 10, k = 24 for Fungi; n = 103, k = 223 for Bacteria; and n = 30, k = 73 for Arthropod. Sample sizes in (B) for each reference land use type are n = 391, k = 1073 for Rural; n = 29, k = 74 for Peri-urban; n = 33, k = 83 for Natural; and n = 24, k = 58 for Urban Gradient. Sample sizes in (C) for each land use conversion type are n = 7, k = 47 for Continuous Gradient; n = 16, k = 44 for High/Low Fragmentation; n = 11, k = 27 for Clearcut/Regrowth; and n = 21, k = 43 for Agriculture.

Extended Data Fig. 8 The effects of common global change drivers on mean infectious disease responses in the literature depends on whether the endpoint is the host or parasite; whether the parasite is a vector, is vector-borne, has a complex or direct life cycle, or is a macroparasite; whether the host is an ectotherm or endotherm; or the venue and habitat in which the study was conducted.

A ) Parasite endpoints. B ) Vector-borne status. C ) Parasite transmission route. D ) Parasite size. E ) Venue. F ) Habitat. G ) Host thermy. H ) Parasite type (ecto- or endoparasite). See Table S 2 for number of studies and effect sizes across ecological contexts and global change drivers. See Table S 3 for pairwise comparison results. The displayed points represent the mean predicted values (with 95% confidence intervals) from a metafor model where the response variable was a Hedge’s g (representing the effect on an infectious disease endpoint relative to control), study was treated as a random effect, and the independent variables included the main effects and an interaction between global change driver and the focal independent variable (whether the endpoint measured was a host or parasite, whether the parasite is vector-borne, has a complex or direct life cycle, is a macroparasite, whether the study was conducted in the field or lab, habitat, the host is ectothermic, or the parasite is an ectoparasite).

Extended Data Fig. 9 The effects of five common global change drivers on mean infectious disease responses in the literature only occasionally depend on location, host taxon, and parasite taxon.

A ) Continent in which the field study occurred. Lack of replication in chemical pollution precluded us from including South America, Australia, and Africa in this analysis. B ) Host taxa. C ) Enemy taxa. See Table S 2 for number of studies and effect sizes across ecological contexts and global change drivers. See Table S 3 for pairwise comparison results. The displayed points represent the mean predicted values (with 95% confidence intervals) from a metafor model where the response variable was a Hedge’s g (representing the effect on an infectious disease endpoint relative to control), study was treated as a random effect, and the independent variables included the main effects and an interaction between global change driver and continent, host taxon, and enemy taxon.

Extended Data Fig. 10 The effects of human vs. non-human endpoints for the zoonotic disease subset of database and wild vs. domesticated animal endpoints for the non-human animal subset of database are consistent across global change drivers.

(A) Zoonotic disease responses measured on human hosts responded less positively (closer to zero when positive, further from zero when negative) than those measured on non-human (animal) hosts (Z = 2.306, p = 0.021). Note, IS studies were removed because of missing cells. (B) Disease responses measured on domestic animal hosts responded less positively (closer to zero when positive, further from zero when negative) than those measured on wild animal hosts (Z = 2.636, p = 0.008). These results were consistent across global change drivers (i.e., no significant interaction between endpoint and global change driver). As many of the global change drivers increase zoonotic parasites in non-human animals and all parasites in wild animals, this may suggest that anthropogenic change might increase the occurrence of parasite spillover from animals to humans and thus also pandemic risk. The displayed points represent the mean predicted values (with 95% confidence intervals) from a metafor model where the response variable was a Hedge’s g (representing the effect on an infectious disease endpoint relative to control), study was treated as a random effect, and the independent variable of global change driver and human/non-human hosts. Data for (A) were only those diseases that are considered “zoonotic”; data for (B) were only those endpoints that were measured on non-human animals. Sample sizes in (A) for zoonotic disease measured on human endpoints across global change drivers are n = 3, k = 17 for BC; n = 2, k = 6 for CP; n = 25, k = 39 for CC; and n = 175, k = 331 for HLC. Sample sizes in (A) for zoonotic disease measured on non-human endpoints across global change drivers are n = 25, k = 52 for BC; n = 2, k = 3 for CP; n = 18, k = 29 for CC; n = 126, k = 289 for HLC. Sample sizes in (B) for wild animal endpoints across global change drivers are n = 28, k = 69 for BC; n = 21, k = 44 for CP; n = 50, k = 89 for CC; n = 121, k = 360 for HLC; and n = 29, k = 45 for IS. Sample sizes in (B) for domesticated animal endpoints across global change drivers are n = 2, k = 4 for BC; n = 4, k = 11 for CP; n = 7, k = 20 for CC; n = 78, k = 197 for HLC; and n = 1, k = 2 for IS.

Supplementary information

Supplementary information.

Supplementary Discussion, Supplementary References and Supplementary Tables 1–3.

Reporting Summary

Peer review file, supplementary data 1.

R markdown code and output associated with this paper.

Supplementary Table 4

EcoEvo PRISMA checklist.

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article.

Mahon, M.B., Sack, A., Aleuy, O.A. et al. A meta-analysis on global change drivers and the risk of infectious disease. Nature (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07380-6

Download citation

Received : 02 August 2022

Accepted : 03 April 2024

Published : 08 May 2024

DOI : https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07380-6

Share this article

Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:

Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.

Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative

By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines . If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.

Quick links

• Explore articles by subject
• Guide to authors
• Editorial policies

Sign up for the Nature Briefing: Anthropocene newsletter — what matters in anthropocene research, free to your inbox weekly.

Climate risk and the opportunity for real estate

Climate change, previously a relatively peripheral concern for many real-estate players, has moved to the top of the agenda. Recently, investors  made net-zero commitments, regulators developed reporting standards, governments passed laws targeting emissions, employees demanded action, and tenants demanded more sustainable buildings. At the same time, the accelerating physical consequences of a changing climate are becoming more pronounced as communities face storms, floods, fires, extreme heat, and other risks.

These changes have brought a sense of urgency to the critical role of real-estate leaders in the climate transition, the period until 2050 during which the world will feel both the physical effects of climate change and the economic, social, and regulatory changes necessary to decarbonize. The climate transition not only creates new responsibilities for real-estate players to both revalue and future-proof their portfolios but also brings opportunities to create fresh sources of value.

The combination of this economic transition and the physical risks of climate change has created a significant risk of mispricing real estate across markets and asset classes. For example, a major North American bank conducted analysis that found dozens of assets in its real-estate portfolio that would likely be exposed to significant devaluations within the next ten years due to factors including increased rates of flooding and job losses due to the climate transition. Additionally, a study of a diversified equity portfolio found that, absent mitigating actions, climate risks could reduce annual returns toward the end of the decade by as much as 40 percent.

Leading real-estate players will figure out which of their assets are mispriced and in what direction and use this insight to inform their investment, asset management, and disposition choices. They will also decarbonize their assets, attracting the trillions of dollars of capital that has been committed to net zero and the thousands of tenants that have made similar commitments. They will then create new revenue sources related to the climate transition.

Building climate intelligence is central to value creation and strategic differentiation in the real-estate industry. But the reverse is also true: real estate is central to global climate change mitigation efforts. Real estate drives approximately 39 percent of total global emissions. Approximately 11 percent of these emissions are generated by manufacturing materials used in buildings (including steel and cement), while the rest is emitted from buildings themselves and by generating the energy that powers buildings. 1 2019 global status report for buildings and construction , International Energy Agency, December 2019.

In addition to the scale of its contribution to total emissions, real estate is critical in global decarbonization efforts for reasons likely to be compelling for investors, tenants, and governments. Significant reductions in emissions associated with real estate can be achieved with positive economics through technologies that already exist. For example, upgrading to more energy-efficient lighting systems and installing better insulation have positive financial returns. Today, newer technologies also make low-carbon heating and cooling systems, such as heat pumps and energy-efficient air conditioning, more cost competitive in many markets and climates. These cost-effective upgrades can create meaningful change while also derisking assets.

We suggest three actions real-estate players can take to thrive throughout the climate transition:

• Incorporate climate change risks into asset and portfolio valuations. This requires building the analytical capabilities to understand both direct and indirect physical and transition risks.
• Decarbonize real-estate assets and portfolios.
• Create new sources of value and revenue streams for investors, tenants, and communities.

Fundamental changes brought on by the climate transition will open new dimensions of competitive differentiation and value creation for real-estate players. More important, leaders will make a valuable contribution to the world’s ability to meet the global climate challenge.

Incorporate climate change risks into asset and portfolio valuations

Climate change’s physical and transition risks touch almost every aspect of a building’s operations and value. Physical risks are hazards caused by a changing climate, including both acute events, such as floods, fires, extreme heat, and storms, and chronic conditions, such as steadily rising sea levels and changing average temperatures. Transition risks include changes in the economy, regulation, consumer behavior, technology, and other human responses to climate change.

We do mind the gap

As we work with real-estate firms, we notice that investment teams increasingly recognize the impact of climate change on asset values. As one leader of valuations at a major real-estate-services firm recently commented to us: “This is the greatest deviation between modeled valuation and actual price that I’ve ever seen, and it’s because of climate.” A chief operating officer of a diversified real-estate investor told us, “We’ve seen underperformance of a cluster of our assets due to climate-related factors that just weren’t considered in our investment theses.”

The industry at large senses how values are shifting. A recent survey of finance experts and professionals conducted by researchers at New York University found that those who think real-estate asset prices reflect climate risks “not enough” outnumber those who think they reflect climate risks “too much” by 67 to 1 (in comparison with stock prices, in which the ratio was 20 to 1). 1 Johannes Stroebel and Jeffrey Wurgler, “What do you think about climate finance?,” Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance, September 3, 2021. The International Renewable Energy Agency has estimated that $7.5 trillion worth of real estate could be “stranded”; these are assets that will experience major write-downs in value given climate risks and the economic transition, making real estate one of the hardest-hit sectors. 2 Jean Eaglesham and Vipal Monga, “Trillions in assets may be left stranded as companies address climate change,” Wall Street Journal , November 20, 2021.

Physical and transition risks can affect assets, such as buildings, directly or indirectly, by having an impact on the markets with which the assets interact. A carbon-intensive building obviously faces regulatory, tenancy, investor, and other risks; over the long term, so does a building that exists in a carbon-intensive ecosystem. For example, a building supplied by a carbon-intensive energy grid or a carbon-intensive transportation system is exposed to the transition risks of those systems as well. All these changes add up to substantial valuation impacts for even diversified portfolios—an increasingly pressing concern for real-estate companies (see sidebar, “We do mind the gap”).

Physical risks, both direct and indirect, have an uneven effect on asset performance

Several major real-estate companies have recently conducted climate stress tests on their portfolios and found a significant impact on portfolio value, with potential losses for some debt portfolios doubling over the next several years. Notably, they found significant variation within the portfolios. Some assets, because of their carbon footprint, location, or tenant composition, would benefit from changes brought on by the climate transition, while others would suffer significant drops in value. The challenge for players is to determine which assets will be affected, in what ways, and how to respond. There is also opportunity for investors who can identify mispriced assets.

Direct physical consequences can be conspicuous: the value of homes in Florida exposed to changing climate-related risks are depressed by roughly $5 billion relative to unexposed homes. According to the Journal of Urban Economics , after Hurricane Sandy, housing prices were reduced by up to 8 percent in New York’s flood zones by 2017, reflecting a greater perception of risk by potential buyers. 2 Francesc Ortega and Süleyman Taspinar, “Rising sea levels and sinking property values: Hurricane Sandy and New York’s housing market,” Journal of Urban Economics , July 2018, Volume 106. In California, there has been a 61 percent annual jump in nonrenewals of insurance (due to higher prices and refused coverage) in areas of moderate-to-very-high fire risk. 3 Elaine Chen and Katherine Chiglinsky, “Many Californians being left without homeowners insurance due to wildfire risk,” Insurance Journal , December 4, 2020.

The indirect impacts of physical risk on assets can be harder to perceive, causing some real-estate players to underestimate them. For example, in 2020, the McKinsey Global Institute modeled expected changes in flooding due to climate change in Bristol, England . A cluster of major corporate headquarters was not directly affected, but the transportation arteries to and from the area were. The water may never enter the lobby of the building, but neither will the tenants.

The climate transition will affect both individual buildings and entire real-estate markets

The investments required to avoid or derisk the worst physical risks will drive a historic reallocation of capital . This will change the structure of our economy and impact the value of the markets, companies, and companies’ locations. These momentous changes require real-estate players to look ahead for regulatory, economic, and social changes that could impact assets.

Among the most direct climate-transition impacts are regulatory requirements to decarbonize buildings, such as New York City’s Local Law 97. In June 2019, the Urban Green Council found that retrofitting all 50,000 buildings covered by the law would create retrofit demand of up to $24.3 billion through 2030. 4 Justin Gerdes, “After pandemic, New York’s buildings face daunting decarbonization mandate,” Greentech Media, April 23, 2020. Standard property valuation models generally do not account for the capital costs required for a building to decarbonize, and investors and operators are often left with a major capital expense or tax that wasn’t considered in the investment memo.

There is also a host of less direct but potentially more significant transition risks that affect whole markets. For example, some carbon-intensive industries are already experiencing rapid declines or fluctuations. In Calgary, for example, the combination of oil price volatility and market-access issues (driven by climate change–related opposition to pipelines) has dramatically depressed revenues from some buildings. Vacancy rates in downtown Calgary reached about 30 percent, a record high, as of January 2021. Investors exposed to the Calgary market have seen their asset values drop precipitously and are left trying to either hold on and hope for a reversal of fortunes or exit the assets and take a significant loss.

Real-estate players should build the capabilities to understand climate-related impacts on asset performance and values

Real-estate owners and investors will need to improve their climate intelligence to understand the potential impact of revenue, operating costs, capital costs, and capitalization rate on assets. This includes developing the analytical capabilities to consistently assess both physical and transition risks. Analyses should encompass both direct effects on assets and indirect effects on the markets, systems, and societies with which assets interact (Exhibit 1).

Portfolio and asset managers can map, quantify, and forecast climate change’s asset value impact

To understand climate change impact on asset values, landlords and investors can develop the following capabilities to understand and quantify risks and opportunities:

• Prioritize. Create a detailed assessment of the asset or portfolio to determine which physical and transition risks are most important and which are less important (using criteria such as the probability of a risk occurring or the severity of that risk).
• Map building exposures. Determine which buildings are exposed to risks, either directly (for example, having to pay a carbon tax on building emissions) or indirectly (for example, exposure to reduction in occupancy as tenants’ industries decline because of a carbon tax), and the degree of exposure (for example, how high floodwaters would reach). This could require detailed modeling of physical hazards (for example, projected changes in flood risks as the climate changes) or macro- or microeconomic modeling (for example, projected GDP impacts based on the carbon price impact on a local geography’s energy production mix).
• Quantify portfolio impact. Combine assessments of the economic risks on individual buildings into an impact map that enables visualization of the entire portfolio (Exhibit 2). This requires combining knowledge of the potential risk or opportunity and an understanding of what drives the economics of a building (including drivers of net operating income, tenancy mix, and areas of cost variability).
• Take action. These capabilities cannot be isolated in a research or environmental, social, and governance (ESG) function but should directly inform investment management, lease pricing, capital attraction and investor relations, asset management, tenant attraction, development, and other core businesses. The processes within organizations must shift to ensure that climate-related insights can be a source of real competitive advantage.

A portfolio revaluation informed by climate change risks can lead to hard choices but will also open the door to acting on decarbonization and exploring new opportunities.

Decarbonize buildings and portfolios

McKinsey research estimates approximately $9.2 trillion in annual investment will be required globally to support the net-zero transition . If the world successfully decarbonizes, the 2050 economy will look fundamentally different from the current economy. If it doesn’t successfully decarbonize, the world will experience mounting physical risks that will strain the foundations of the global economy and society. In either case, the places where people live, work, shop, and play will fundamentally change.

Decarbonizing real estate requires considering a building’s ecosystem

Ultimately, the only way to reduce the risks of climate change is to decarbonize. Real-estate players have a wide array of options for how to proceed, including low-carbon development and construction ; building retrofits to improve energy efficiency; upgrades to heating, cooling, and lighting technology; and technology to manage demand and consumption. But decarbonization is not solely a technical challenge. To develop the most appropriate path, real-estate players need to understand the range of decarbonization options and their financial and strategic costs and benefits.

Decarbonizing real estate

To decarbonize, industry players can take the following steps:

• Understand the starting point. Quantify baseline emissions of each building. This helps real-estate players prioritize where to start (for example, individual buildings, asset classes, or regions) and determine how far there is to go to reach zero emissions.
• Set targets. Decide which type of decarbonization target to set. There is a range of potential target-setting standards that take different approaches (for example, measuring absolute emissions versus emissions intensity, or setting targets at the sector level versus asset level). Players should develop a “house view” on targets that achieve business, investor, stakeholder, regulatory, and other objectives.
• Identify decarbonization levers. Build an asset- or portfolio-level abatement curve. A marginal abatement cost curve  provides a clear view of the potential cost/return on investment of a given emissions-reduction lever along with the impact of that lever on emissions reduction. This approach can be complemented with market and policy scenarios that change the relative costs and benefits of each potential abatement lever.
• Execute. Set up the mechanisms to effectively deploy the decarbonization plan. These may involve making changes to financing and governance, stakeholder engagement (investors, joint-venture partners, operators, and tenants), and a range of operational and risk-management aspects of the business.
• Track and improve. As investors, lenders, and tenants make their own decarbonization commitments, they will need to demonstrate that their real estate is indeed decarbonizing. Thus, much of the value of decarbonizing will come from the ability to demonstrate emissions reduction to potential stakeholders. Building the ability to monitor and progressively reduce emissions on the path to net zero will create an opportunity for players to differentiate.

Create new sources of value and revenue streams for investors, tenants, and communities

As the economy decarbonizes, real-estate players can use their locations, connections to utility systems, local operational footprints, and climate intelligence to create new revenue streams, improve asset values, or launch entirely new businesses.

Opportunities include the following:

• Local energy generation and storage. Real-estate firms can use their physical presence to generate and store energy. For example, property developers have been outfitting buildings with solar arrays and batteries, helping to stabilize energy grids and reduce the costs associated with clean energy. 5 “5 ways clean tech is making commercial RE more energy efficient,” Jones Lang LaSalle, April 20, 2021.
• Green buildings to attract more tenants. Developers and property managers can invest in developing green buildings or retrofitting older buildings to make them green to meet the growing appetite for sustainable workplaces and homes.
• Green-building materials. Players can explore the advantages of green steel, tall timber, modular construction, and other emerging technologies and materials that may have additional benefits, such as faster and lower-cost construction.
• Extra services on-site. Firms can introduce new revenue streams, including vehicle charging, green-facilities management, and other on-site services that enable occupants’ sustainable preferences.
• Services for reducing and tracking emissions. Firms can support occupants by tracking emissions and offering solutions to reduce carbon footprints. These services could include smart sensors and tracking energy consumption through heating, cooling, lighting, and space management.
• Differentiated capital attraction. Given the volume of capital that has already been committed to achieving net zero, firms that are able to decarbonize will have an advantage in attracting capital. Real-estate players may, for example, create specific funds for net-zero buildings or investment themes that support community-scale decarbonization.

The coming climate transition will create seismic shifts in the real-estate industry, changing tenants’ and investors’ demands, the value of individual assets, and the fundamental approaches to developing and operating real estate. Smart players will get ahead of these changes and build climate intelligence early by understanding the implications for asset values, finding opportunities to decarbonize, and creating opportunity through supporting the transition.

Real estate not only will play a critical role in determining whether the world successfully decarbonizes but also will continue to reinvent the way we live, work, and play through these profound physical and economic changes.

This article was edited by Katy McLaughlin, a senior editor in the southern California office.

Explore a career with us

Related articles.

Call for action: Seizing the decarbonization opportunity in construction

Glasgow COP26 2021: Decarbonizing the built environment

Virtual 2021: Sustainability in the construction ecosystem

Company Filings | More Search Options

Company Filings More Search Options -->

• Commissioners
• Reports and Publications
• Securities Laws
• Commission Votes
• Corporation Finance
• Enforcement
• Investment Management
• Economic and Risk Analysis
• Trading and Markets
• Office of Administrative Law Judges
• Examinations
• Litigation Releases
• Administrative Proceedings
• Opinions and Adjudicatory Orders
• Accounting and Auditing
• Trading Suspensions
• How Investigations Work
• Receiverships
• Information for Harmed Investors
• Rulemaking Activity
• Proposed Rules
• Final Rules
• Interim Final Temporary Rules
• Other Orders and Notices
• Self-Regulatory Organizations
• Staff Interpretations
• Investor Education
• Small Business Capital Raising
• EDGAR – Search & Access
• EDGAR – Information for Filers
• Company Filing Search
• How to Search EDGAR
• About EDGAR
• Press Releases
• Speeches and Statements
• Securities Topics
• Upcoming Events
• Media Gallery
• Divisions & Offices
• Public Statements

Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change by The Options Clearing Corporation Concerning Amendments to Its Rules and Comprehensive Stress Testing & Clearing Fund Methodology, and Liquidity Risk Management Description

Public comments.

The Federal Register

The daily journal of the united states government, request access.

Due to aggressive automated scraping of FederalRegister.gov and eCFR.gov, programmatic access to these sites is limited to access to our extensive developer APIs.

If you are human user receiving this message, we can add your IP address to a set of IPs that can access FederalRegister.gov & eCFR.gov; complete the CAPTCHA (bot test) below and click "Request Access". This process will be necessary for each IP address you wish to access the site from, requests are valid for approximately one quarter (three months) after which the process may need to be repeated.

An official website of the United States government.

If you want to request a wider IP range, first request access for your current IP, and then use the "Site Feedback" button found in the lower left-hand side to make the request.

A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.

A lock ( ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

• Risk Factors
• Health Equity
• Cancer Data and Statistics
• Cancer Research
• Resource Library
• Types of Cancer
• HPV and Cancer
• Health Care Provider Resources
• Evidence-Based Interventions

Colorectal Cancer: Screening Policies, Procedures, and Practices

What to know.

The screening policies, procedures, and practices within health facilities focus area includes tools and resources to: assess the status of cancer screening, make cancer screening a priority, reduce structural barriers, and use data to identify patients due for screening and opportunities to improve cancer screening rates within a clinical setting or system.

Introduction

This page is part of the Colorectal Cancer Screening Change Package.

Change concepts are "general notions that are useful for developing more specific strategies for changing a process." 1 Change ideas are evidence-based or practice-based "actionable, specific ideas or strategies." 1 Each change idea is linked to tools and resources that can be used or adapted to improve cancer screening.

Note : See a list of acronyms used in this change package.

Change concept: Make cancer screening a priority.

Assess primary care clinics' readiness to implement existing evidence-based interventions (ebis) to increase cancer screening..

• CDC — Field Guide for Assessing Readiness to Implement Evidence-Based Cancer Screening Interventions

Prioritize screening by engaging leaders and identifying screening champions.

• AICAF and NIHB — Advancing Health Systems Toolkit, A pages 5–7
• CDC, NACDD, and Kaiser Permanente CHR — Mailed FIT Implementation Guide, pages 11–14
• Health Promotion Practice Journal — The Health Promotion Practice Podcast: S2 Ep. 24 Exploring Sustainability Factors for a Colorectal Cancer Screening Program with Dara Schlueter
• NACHC — Value Transformation Framework: Cancer Screening, page 4

Use a whole-office approach by delegating screening tasks across the health care facility team.

• CDC, NACDD, and Kaiser Permanente CHR — Mailed FIT Implementation Guide, pages 9–12
• Evidence-Based Cancer Control Programs (EBCCP) — Fecal Immunochemical Test and Colonoscopy Outreach, A see Program Materials [English and Spanish]

Make cancer screening a quality improvement measure at the system level.

• NQF — ABCs of Measurement

Change concept: Implement population management strategies for all eligible patients.

Benchmark or compare health care facility screening prevalence to state and national prevalence..

• ACS — Cancer Facts and Figures for African American/Black People 2022–2024
• ACS — Cancer Prevention and Early Detection Facts and Figures 2022, (tables and figures only) pages 35–36
• CDC — Use of Colorectal Cancer Screening Tests A
• CDC — United States Cancer Statistics: Data Visualizations Tool A (see Screening and Risk Factors tab)
• NACHC — Value Transformation Framework: Cancer Screening, page 5

Use community assessment to identify barriers to and resources for screening.

• ACS and CCCNP — Comprehensive Cancer Control Plan: Colorectal Cancer Tip Sheet, pages 4–7
• BMC and AVON Foundation for Women — The Boston Medical Center Patient Navigation Toolkit, 1st ed, pages 10–19

Run EHR reports on eligible patient populations to generate lists or create a registry of patients who are due for screening and conduct outreach.

• AICAF and NIHB — Advancing Health Systems Toolkit, A page 15
• Evidence-Based Cancer Control Programs (EBCCP) — Smart Options for Screening (SOS), A see Program Materials: Implementation Guide and SOS ICD Codes

Analyze data by patient sub-populations to determine if screening disparities exist.

• CDC — United States Cancer Statistics (USCS): Data Visualizations Tool
• NIH, NCI, and CDC — State Cancer Profiles Interactive Maps

Change concept: Establish standard operating procedures for screening.

Develop formal written screening policies for the health care facility..

• NACHC — Value Transformation Framework: Cancer Screening, pages 6–7

Implement standing orders for screening.

• AAFP — Developing Standing Orders to Help Your Team Work to the Highest Level

Use implementation guides and quality improvement tools to create workflows and address workflow barriers.

• CCSPSC — CCSPSC Champions Program, see Phased Approach to Implementation with Partners (throughout document)
• CCSPSC — CCSPSC Champions Program, see Sandhills-Lugoff Provider Reminder Process, page 32
• Evidence-Based Cancer Control Program (EBCCP) — Fecal Immunochemical Test and Colonoscopy Outreach, see Program Materials: Colonoscopy Strategy Workflow and FIT Strategy Workflow
• FluFIT, Potter M — FLU-FOBT Program Components and Flow Diagram A
• NACHC — Value Transformation Framework: Cancer Screening, A pages 5–8

Change concept: Use risk assessment tools and follow-up.

Use a family history algorithm to assess a patient's risk of developing cancer to help determine eligibility for screening..

• CDC — My Family Health Portrait

Use a risk calculator to determine a patient's eligibility for screening.

• NCI — Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

Change concept: Practice patient education, communication, and shared decision-making.

Use tools and resources to facilitate shared decision-making regarding screening..

• GW Cancer Center — Guide for Patient Navigators: A Supplement to the Oncology Patient Navigator Training: The Fundamentals, pages 83–88
• Kunneman M, Montori VM, Castaneda-Guarderas A, Hess EP, 2016 — What Is Shared Decision Making? (and What It Is Not)
• Ottawa Hospital Research Institute — Colon Cancer: Which Screening Test Should I Have? A

Use patient education materials and small media such as videos and printed materials.

• AICAF and NIHB — Advancing Health Systems Toolkit, A B page 10
• ASCO — Colonoscopy B [English and Spanish]
• CDC — Colorectal Cancer Communication Resources B [videos and print materials in English and Spanish]
• Kaiser Permanente CHR — Patient Frequently Asked Questions B [English and Spanish]

Use patient education materials to support discussions on potential out-of-pocket costs for screening and follow-up.

• ACS — Insurance Coverage for Colorectal Cancer Screening B [English and Spanish]
• AGA — What to Expect: Paying for Your Colonoscopy B

Use communication tools and strategies to improve patient-centered communication.

• GW Cancer Center — Health Equity Toolbox: Resources to Foster Cultural Sensitivity and Equitable Care for All
• GW Cancer Center — Practice Patient-Centered Care Posters

Personalize messaging to increase screening among patients.

Provide educational and instructional materials to patients on screening procedures..

• Evidence-Based Cancer Control Programs (EBCCP) — Fecal Immunochemical Test and Colonoscopy Outreach, A B see Program Materials: Colonoscopy Invitation Letter [English and Spanish example letters] and Colonoscopy Bowel Prep Instructions [English and Spanish examples]

Change concept: Implement patient and provider reminder systems.

Use multi-modal screening reminders, such as mail, phone, or text messages, for patients..

• AltaMed, Kaiser Permanente CHR — PROMPT Study: Primer Calls for Never Completed FIT Screening: Outreach Team Call Scripts [English and Spanish patient letter, personalized alert, and reminder prompts for FIT]
• CDC, NACDD, and Kaiser Permanente CHR — Mailed FIT Implementation Guide, pages 24, 28, 32, and 38
• Evidence-Based Cancer Control Programs — Against Colorectal Cancer In Our Neighborhoods (ACCION) — FIT Abnormal Results Letter A B [English and Spanish]
• Evidence-Based Cancer Control Programs — Fecal Immunochemical Test and Colonoscopy Outreach [English and Spanish colonoscopy appointment reminder, FIT telephone scripts]
• Evidence-Based Cancer Control Programs — Smart Options for Screening (SOS) — Implementation Guide
• Kaiser Permanente CHR — Prevention Research Center Colorectal Cancer Mailed Patient Reminder Template B [English and Spanish]
• Kaiser Permanente CHR — Reminder Call Phone Scripts to Return FIT Tests
• Kaiser Permanente CHR — Vendor Script: Colorectal Cancer Screening FOBT Kits
• NIHB — Health Systems Improvement Toolkit: A Guide to Cancer Screenings in Indian Country, A pages 15 and 21–24
• Washington State Department of Health — Colon Cancer Screening Provider Toolbox, page 1

Use electronic reminders, such as prompts in the EHR, for providers and staff.

• ACS and CCCNP — Comprehensive Cancer Control Plan: Colorectal Cancer Tip Sheet, page 9
• CCSPSC — CCSPSC Champions Program, see Provider Reminder Observation Form, pages 33–35, and Sandhills-Lugoff Provider Reminder Process, page 32
• CDC — Evidence-Based Interventions — Provider Reminder Planning Guide
• NIHB — Health Systems Improvement Toolkit: A Guide to Cancer Screenings in Indian Country, A pages 15 and 17–19

Use physical reminders, such as stickers or cards, for providers and staff.

• CCSPSC — CCSPSC Champions Program, see Provider Reminder Observation Form, pages 33–35
• CDC — Evidence-Based Interventions – Provider Reminder Planning Guide
• NIHB — Health Systems Improvement Toolkit: A Guide to Cancer Screenings in Indian Country, pages 15 and 17–19

Change concept: Reduce structural barriers in the health care setting.

Identify health-related social needs..

• Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services — Accountable Health Communities Model [social needs screening tool]

Offer nontraditional facility hours.

• NIHB — Health Systems Improvement Toolkit: A Guide to Cancer Screenings in Indian Country, page 25
• The Community Guide — Cancer Screening: Reducing Structural Barriers for Clients — Colorectal Cancer

Use telehealth for screening consultations and follow-up of results.

• President's Cancer Panel — Closing Gaps in Cancer Screening: Connecting People, Communities, and Systems to Improve Equity and Access, pages 3 and 17–19

Use patient navigation to improve completion of screening.

• BMC and AVON Foundation for Women — The Boston Medical Center Patient Navigation Toolkit 1st ed
• Evidence-Based Cancer Control Programs (EBCCP) — Kukui Ahi (Light the Way): Patient Navigation — Addressing Barriers Worksheet; Implementation Guide
• GW Cancer Institute — Guide for Patient Navigators: A Supplement to the Oncology Patient Navigator Training: The Fundamentals
• NCCRT and Colorado School of Public Health — Paying for Colorectal Cancer Screening Patient Navigation Toolkit and Interactive Website
• NIHB — Health Systems Improvement Toolkit: A Guide to Cancer Screenings in Indian Country, pages 25–26

Ensure information or interpretation services are available in the patient's primary language.

• Juckett G, Unger K, 2014 — Appropriate Use of Medical Interpreters

Streamline administrative procedures, such as simplifying patient paperwork, reducing the number of required visits, and offering flexibility for late arrivals.

• The Community Guide — Cancer Screening: Reducing Structural Barriers for Clients — Breast Cancer
• NACHC — Value Transformation Framework: Cancer Screening, pages 6–9

Conduct an environmental scan and organizational assessment of cancer screening capacity.

• BMC and AVON Foundation for Women — The Boston Medical Center Patient Navigation Toolkit 1st ed, pages 5–19
• CCSPSC — CCSPSC Champions Program, see Readiness Assessment, pages 1–5
• Evidence-Based Cancer Control Programs (EBCCP) — Kukui Ahi (Light the Way): Patient Navigation — Facility Tour Worksheet
• This resource may contain some information that does not reflect the current US Preventive Services Task Force recommendations for cervical cancer screening.
• Indicates a patient resource.
• Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Tobacco Cessation Change Package. US Department of Health and Human Services; 2019.

Learn how to lower your cancer risk and what CDC is doing to prevent and control cancer.

For Everyone

Health care providers, public health.

• Icon Twitter

• Agriculture and Food Systems

Biodiversity Conservation

Climate finance.

• Conflict and Governance
• Gender and Social Inclusion

Humanitarian Assistance

• Infrastructure

Natural Climate Solutions

• Natural Resource Management

Water and Sanitation

• Where We Work
• All Resources
• Climate Risk Management
• Climate Strategy Implementation
• Monitoring & Evaluation
• Tools & Support
• Engage with Us
• Photo Gallery
• Climate Strategy

2024 Climatelinks Photo Contest

Our 2024 Photo Contest theme is In Focus: Communities Confronting Climate Change . We are looking for submissions that show the breadth of issues, impacts, and solutions to climate change across 14 categories. Submissions will be accepted beginning June 5, 2024 .

The main categories are listed in bold below. Examples of submissions under each category are also noted. A release form will be required upon submission for all images.

Agriculture and Food Systems 

• Low-Emission Agriculture and Food Systems
• Climate-smart Agriculture
• Food Security
• Food Loss and Waste
• Integrated Forest and Agricultural Land Management
• Nature Crime
• Landscape/Seascape Conservation
• Community Engagement/Locally Led Development
• Ecosystem-based Adaptation
• Biodiversity Corridors
• Circular Economy
• Private Sector Engagement
• Livelihoods

Democracy, Rights & Governance

• Anti-Corruption
• Governance/Civil Society
• Human Rights
• Environmental and Climate Defenders
• Climate Justice
• Climate Education
• Youth Workforce Development
• Community Engagement
• Climate-resilient Education Infrastructure
• Renewable Energy
• Energy Efficiency
• Data/Technology/Innovation

Gender & Social Inclusion

• Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, and Accessibility (DEIA)
• Children, Youth
• Self-determined Development

Green Cities

• Resilient, Low-carbon Infrastructure
• Ocean Plastics
• Air Quality
• Resilience/Adaptation
• Disaster Risk Management
• Loss and Damage
• Natural Disaster

Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities

• Locally Led Climate Action
• Locally Led Development
• Forest Conservation
• Ecosystem Restoration
• Nature-based Solutions
• Mangrove Restoration
• Forests and Livelihoods
• Water Storage Infrastructure
• Green Infrastructure (Nature-based Solutions)
• Climate Resilient Water/Sanitation Infrastructure
• Evidence-based Planning
• Water Use Efficiency

Systems Change

• Cross-sectoral

Strategic Objectives (cross-cutting)

• Integration

**Photo submissions captured from August 2023 until June 2024 will be accepted.**

You may submit up to five images complying with the contest rules and requirements. Entries will be judged on relevance, composition, originality, and technical quality. Winners will be selected overall through an evaluation panel composed of USAID staff and the Climatelinks team.

The contest runs until July 19, 2024. All photos will be featured in a public Photo Gallery on the Climatelinks website, and may also be featured in the Climatelinks newsletter, blog, or homepage, or in other USAID materials.

Strategic Objective

Climatelinks

Climatelinks is a global knowledge portal for USAID staff, implementing partners, and the broader community working at the intersection of climate change and international development. The portal curates and archives technical guidance and knowledge related to USAID’s work to help countries mitigate and adapt to climate change. 

Related Resources

Climate Risk Management Portal

USAID’s Climate Work: FY 2023 Review

Climate Adaptation and Its Measurement: Challenges and Opportunities

Top 10 Country Mission Finance Mobilized Results - USAID FY2022

More on the blog, youth at the forefront of climate action in north macedonia.

• Tara Kalaputi, YACO Team

Young Cambodians Take the Lead on Climate Action

• Sokkhoeun Oum

Young Activists Protect Colombia’s Natural Treasures

• Emily Chambard, Jennifer Melin, Alma Gutierrez Bancroft

• Search Menu
• Advance articles
• Browse content in Biological, Health, and Medical Sciences
• Administration Of Health Services, Education, and Research
• Agricultural Sciences
• Allied Health Professions
• Anesthesiology
• Anthropology
• Anthropology (Biological, Health, and Medical Sciences)
• Applied Biological Sciences
• Biochemistry
• Biophysics and Computational Biology (Biological, Health, and Medical Sciences)
• Biostatistics
• Cell Biology
• Dermatology
• Developmental Biology
• Environmental Sciences (Biological, Health, and Medical Sciences)
• Immunology and Inflammation
• Internal Medicine
• Medical Sciences
• Medical Microbiology
• Microbiology
• Neuroscience
• Obstetrics and Gynecology
• Ophthalmology
• Pharmacology
• Physical Medicine
• Plant Biology
• Population Biology
• Psychological and Cognitive Sciences (Biological, Health, and Medical Sciences)
• Public Health and Epidemiology
• Radiation Oncology
• Rehabilitation
• Sustainability Science (Biological, Health, and Medical Sciences)
• Systems Biology
• Browse content in Physical Sciences and Engineering
• Aerospace Engineering
• Applied Mathematics
• Applied Physical Sciences
• Bioengineering
• Biophysics and Computational Biology (Physical Sciences and Engineering)
• Chemical Engineering
• Civil and Environmental Engineering
• Computer Sciences
• Computer Science and Engineering
• Earth Resources Engineering
• Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
• Electric Power and Energy Systems Engineering
• Electronics, Communications and Information Systems Engineering
• Engineering
• Environmental Sciences (Physical Sciences and Engineering)
• Materials Engineering
• Mathematics
• Mechanical Engineering
• Sustainability Science (Physical Sciences and Engineering)
• Browse content in Social and Political Sciences
• Anthropology (Social and Political Sciences)
• Economic Sciences
• Environmental Sciences (Social and Political Sciences)
• Political Sciences
• Psychological and Cognitive Sciences (Social and Political Sciences)
• Social Sciences
• Sustainability Science (Social and Political Sciences)
• Author guidelines
• Submission site
• Open access policy
• Self-archiving policy
• Why submit to PNAS Nexus
• The PNAS portfolio
• For reviewers
• About PNAS Nexus
• About National Academy of Sciences
• Editorial Board
• Journals on Oxford Academic
• Books on Oxford Academic

Article Contents

Introduction, three catastrophic fires in the past five years, wildland–urban interface risk and climate change, discussion and recommendations: improving wildfire risk reduction efforts, author contributions, data availability statement, wildfire risk management in the era of climate change.

Competing Interest: The authors declare no competing interest.

• Article contents
• Figures & tables
• Supplementary Data

Costas Emmanuel Synolakis, Georgios Marios Karagiannis, Wildfire risk management in the era of climate change, PNAS Nexus , Volume 3, Issue 5, May 2024, pgae151, https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae151

• Permissions Icon Permissions

The August 8, 2023R Lahaina fire refocused attention on wildfires, public alerts, and emergency management. Wildfire risk is on the rise, precipitated through a combination of climate change, increased development in the wildland–urban interface (WUI), decades of unmitigated biomass accumulation in forests, and a long history of emphasis on fire suppression over hazard mitigation. Stemming the tide of wildfire death and destruction will involve bringing together diverse scientific disciplines into policy. Renewed emphasis is needed on emergency alerts and community evacuations. Land management strategies need to account for the impact of climate change and hazard mitigation on forest ecosystems. Here, we propose a long-term strategy consisting of integrating wildfire risk management in wider-scope forest land management policies and strategies, and we discuss new technologies and possible scientific breakthroughs.

Here, we draw from research on wildland–urban interface (WUI) fires from forestry and climate science to emergency management and economics, and we summarize the complexity and offer recommendations for policy making. Its significance stems from the analysis of emergency response in recent deadly fires, and our integrated approach which brings together multiple, diverse disciplines to explore policy-related, strategic, and operational approaches for addressing wildland fire risk in the era of climate change.

Wildland fires have existed since the beginning of history, with Paleontological evidence suggesting that early forest fires started to spread about 383 million years ago ( 1 ). As humanity evolved, forest fires were allowed to burn, depending on the objectives of human settlers ( 2 ). For example, even with the advent of fire suppression capabilities in the late 19th century, fire control efforts in the United States focused around settlements, and those beyond were left to burn unabated ( 3 ).

Despite impressive advances in forestry, fire science and firefighting technologies, and the leaps in wildland firefighting capabilities compared to 200 years ago, wildfire deaths are on the rise. The early February 2024 wildfires in Valparaiso, Chile killed over 130 persons and were the deadliest natural disaster in the country since the 2010 Mw∼8.8 earthquake and tsunami ( 4 ) and occurred in what has been called a “megadrought” ( 5 ). The August 8, 2023 Maui fires resulted in the highest death toll in the United States since the 1918 Cloquet and Moose Lake fires, and they amount to the fifth deadliest incident on record nationwide ( 6 ). It has been argued that at least some of these casualties might have been prevented had there been evacuation orders or emergency alerts ( 7 , 8 ). Less than two months after this catastrophe in Hawaii, the nationwide test of the Integrated Public Alert and Warning System established by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), a state-of-the-art capability which has served as a model for countries around the world, came as a stark reminder of the complexity of wildfire risk.

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine ( 9 ) point out that wildfire smoke can be transported over fairly long distances downwind and contaminate indoor and outdoor air, indoor surfaces, soil, and surface and even drinking water. Air pollution by plume transport is an insidious yet potent source of morbidity and mortality. In Europe alone, Kollanus et al. ( 10 ) estimated 1,080 premature deaths in 2008 from wildfire-originated fine particles in the atmosphere, with southern and eastern Europe disproportionately affected. The 2018 Camp Fire (Butte County, CA) resulted in PM 2.5 concentrations in downtown San Francisco, 240 miles away, peaking about six times higher than, and about double the US benchmark, for two weeks after the event ( 11 ). Chen et al. ( 12 ) found that fine particulate matter from wildfires was significantly associated with increased cardiovascular and respiratory mortality at a global level, and estimated the associated death toll at 33,000, or approximately 0.6% of all deaths in 749 cities in 43 countries and regions, in 2000–2016.

The devastation caused by many wildfires does not come without nontrivial societal and political ramifications. Communities affected by wildfires face the trauma of death, injury, loss of livelihoods, damage to homes, and psychological effects. Notwithstanding the provision of relief aid, more often than not, decision-makers face the outrage of their constituents for everything they didn’t do, for example, issuing alerts and evacuation orders. Electorates tend to punish incumbents for wildfire deaths and damage, so there is scapegoating and denial of responsibility by officials, which makes forensic analysis exceptionally difficult.

Wildfire risk lies in the confluence of climate change and development in the WUI. According to the NASEM ( 9 ) report, the WUI in the United States has expanded by 50% in the past 50 years, the fastest growing land use type, and another 10% increase is projected by 2030. Stemming the tide of wildfire death and destruction will involve bringing together diverse scientific disciplines into policy. Here, we will first review three fires to elucidate challenges posed, then we discuss how climate change is projected to increase fire activity, that is the frequency and intensity of fires. We will explore how governments are responding, and we argue that improvements in fire suppression capabilities, although required in the short term, may be financially unsustainable in the long run.

Lahaina, Maui, HI

On August 8, 2023, fires broke out in different parts of Maui, Hawaii. One of the fires destroyed the historic town of Lahaina and claimed 98 lives, becoming the deadliest US wildfire in more than a century.

Maui is no stranger to vegetation fires. However, on August 8, dry vegetation and strong descending winds climbed up to about 125 kilometers per hour and caused the fire to quickly spread out of control. Firefighting resources were stretched thin, responding to multiple incidents on the island. Lahaina was ravaged, and the majority of its about 1,800 buildings were completely burned. Some people sought refuge at sea, whereas others burned in their cars while trying to evacuate ( 7 , 8 ).

As fires broke out, broadcast emergency messages and social media posts from the County of Maui provided updates, alerts, and evacuation calls for some areas but apparently not Lahaina, a densely populated area with limited escape routes. Confusing messaging and delayed evacuation alerts (if they even took place) did not help.

Looking at milestones in the timeline, around 3:30 PM, a major road was closed just north of Lahaina because of what appeared then as just a flare-up of an earlier fire. Maui County's social media page didn’t announce the closure until 4:46 PM Evacuation orders for the entire area appear not to have been issued when the road was closed, or even soon thereafter. Maui officials claimed that text alerts were sent out, but that power and cellular disruptions prevented residents from receiving them. Some survivors have reported receiving no warning messages before the fire reached them, whereas at least one visitor reported receiving an emergency alert on their cellphone at 4:17 PM, 47 minutes after the road closure. Many local residents reported that they didn’t know the flames were approaching until the fire was nearby, and some said that they were informed by neighbors to evacuate. By 5:19 PM the fire had reached the waterfront in Lahaina, and by 5:33 PM people were seeking shelter in the water.

All this is quite surprising. Not only was there a fire in Maui in 2018 with similar problematic issues, but Hawaii has one of the most sophisticated tsunami warning systems in the world, fine-tuned since 1946, when a 17-meter tsunami hit the islands in the aftermath of the 1946 Aleutian tsunami ( 13 ), claiming 159 lives. Sirens are an integral part of the islands’ warning capabilities, yet local authorities defended their decision not to activate them in this fire. Mechanical sirens, as in Hawaii's All-Hazard Statewide Outdoor Warning Siren System produce a single tone, alerting people of an impending hazard, but provide no information about the nature of the hazard, its severity and, most importantly, protective action guidance. Note that the siren system is referred to as all-hazard, including wildfires, and claimed as the largest in the world.

To be effective, sirens need to be associated with a single clear protective action ( 14 ). In fact, Maui County had advised people that “[w]hen a siren tone is heard other than a scheduled test, tune into local Radio/TV/Cable stations for emergency information and instructions by official authorities. If you are in a low-lying area near the coastline; evacuate to high grounds, inland, or vertically to the 4th floor and higher of a concrete building”. In other words, Maui residents were given incomplete information—the reference to evacuating to high ground is likely for tsunami emergencies, yet there is no reference in the instructions to tsunamis. This confusing messaging is exactly what emergency managers are taught to avoid yet, in the aftermath, local authorities claimed they couldn’t have done anything differently.

A High Wind Watch issued on August 6 spoke of gale-force winds from the northeast on Maui until the night of August 8, as Hurricane Dora passed south of the Hawaiian Islands. It was upgraded to a High Wind Warning for Maui on August 7, with forecasts of gale-force winds from the east. Fire danger in Hawaii is weather-dominated, as vegetation grows rapidly with subtropical rainfall extremes, and dries rapidly during drought periods ( 15 ). On August 8, dry conditions on the island, strong easterly winds, and densely populated areas on the west coast of the island combined to create a dangerous situation. With hindsight, this combination may have fulfilled the criteria for issuing a warning of potential extreme fire behavior.

The Maui disaster triggered political backlash and legal battles. State and national levels came under scrutiny over their handling of the situation. The Maui County Emergency Management Administrator resigned in the weeks following the disaster. Three months following the fire, the Governor announced the creation of a $150 million recovery fund to help those who were injured in the fires or lost family members if they waive their right to file associated legal claims. The fund is initially paid for by the State of Hawaii, Maui County, Hawaiian Electric, and Kamehameha Schools, all of which have been named in legal actions over the wildfires.

Mati, Greece

Emergency and civil defense managers in Hawaii should have known better. Five years earlier, almost to the day, on July 23, 2018, a fairly small brush fire claimed 104 lives in Mati, Greece. Mati is a seaside community of about 5,000, approximately 30 km west of Athens, and a popular summer destination. On July 23, very strong winds descending from Mount Penteli at about 95 km/h (gusting to over 110 km/h) pushed the fire rapidly over dry vegetation, causing it to spread quickly, covering one-half mile in about half an hour from the nearest highway east of the town to the sea. In total, the fire took two hours to spread from where it started to the nearest beach—there is security camera video that captured the ignition. About 1,200 buildings were destroyed by the fire.

People were burned in their cars as they attempted to flee, while hundreds of people escaped to nearby seaside cliffs, hiked down to the beach, and were evacuated hours later from the water. A large number of firefighting resources had already been committed to a major incident about 80 km to the east, leaving limited resources available for the Mati fire.

In Mati, there was no warning, and people self-evacuated when flames were hundreds of feet away or did so at the encouragement of neighbors. Some police officers and firefighters reportedly went door-to-door to urge people to evacuate, but the lack of evacuation planning led to a series of traffic management failures, including, in one case, leading evacuees back toward the fire. The government and civil defense denied responsibility and claimed they couldn’t have done anything differently, even with hindsight ( 16 ). Despite the rapid spread of the fire, our calculations using agent-based evacuation models showed that, with a proper evacuation plan and public warning, the area could have been evacuated in time.

Unlike Maui, the legal and political fallout of the Mati disaster had historic proportions. At first, there were ad hominem attacks against scientists who spoke out about the lack of evacuation orders as contributing to the high death toll. This is also what happened in several countries in the first months of the COVID pandemic—governments were shooting the messengers. Eventually, however, the Alternate Minister for Citizen Protection, the Secretary General for Civil Protection, the Chief of the Hellenic Fire Service and the Chief of the Hellenic Police resigned. A series of negligence lawsuits were filed against the government by those who had lost loved ones and/or their homes. In addition, a four-year criminal investigation culminated with a trial which began on October 31, 2022, with twentyone senior elected and appointed officials facing felony charges. On April 29, 2024, six of the twentyone defendants were found guilty of negligent homicide. Some have argued that the handling of the aftermath of this fire led to the government losing national elections a year later.

The new government that took over rolled out the 112 Emergency Communications Service, following our relentless advocacy, editorials in major newspapers, and actual implementation work. The new service integrates a unified, multi-agency public safety answering capability, based on the European emergency number 1-1-2 with a nationwide, integrated public alert and warning system. This system is now used by the General Secretariat for Civil Protection (i.e. the country's national emergency management agency) to deliver effective life-saving information to the public. Alert messages are delivered primarily through cell phone SMS and additional communications pathways. In addition, new legislation voted in 2020 established an all-hazards planning approach, and municipalities are required to prepare a single emergency operations plan with hazard-specific and function-based annexes, as required. An evacuation annex is now mandatory.

The Maui and Mati fires bear eerie similarities. Dry vegetation and high winds, which pushed the fires downslope to densely populated areas with poor evacuation routes, and insufficient firefighting resources combined to cause both fires to quickly spread out of control. Preparedness failures, poor warning capabilities, and an apparent deficiency in evacuation planning led to the high death tolls. In both locales, people were burned in their cars, in Mati some because of a lack of evacuation planning that resulted in drivers being redirected back to the inferno, while in Lahaina possibly because of delays in evacuation and confusion with closed roads. In both cases, officials claimed that call centers were overwhelmed. Both events had political repercussions, and in both cases officials abdicated responsibility, claiming they wouldn’t have done anything differently even with hindsight.

WUI fires need not be so ghastly.

Rhodes, Greece

On July 18, 2023, a fire broke out on the Greek island of Rhodes. The fire was initially confined to the island's mountainous center, but spread to the south on the fourth day, fanned by strong, northerly seasonal winds. By July 23, the fire had reached the southern coast of the island, scorching more than 16,000 ha. With multiple fires burning simultaneously throughout the country, resources were stretched thin, despite the reinforcements sent by EU countries and the United States. The island is one of the most popular tourist destinations in the Mediterranean, exceeding 2 million visitors every year, and roughly the same size as Maui.

When it comes to evacuations, visitors are a vexing challenge, not least because of their limited proficiency in the host country's language, and their lack of familiarity with the area they are visiting. Yet, Greek authorities were able to evacuate over 20,000 local residents and tourists from the affected areas in Rhodes, within half a day, making it Greece's largest ever wildfire evacuation ( 17 , 18 ). The country's public alert and warning system was used to send multiple evacuation messages, as the fire approached residential areas. The slower overall rate of spread of the Rhodes fire may have allowed for the timely evacuation. However, the scale of the evacuation was considerable for Greece, and much more so for an island like Rhodes, and we that without a public warning system and a tried emergency management program, such as 112, the outcome would have been quite different. Ultimately, the fire devastated homes, hotels, and other businesses, yet the only casualty was the tragic loss of a volunteer firefighter. The efficacious crisis management in the aftermath bears noting, as most evacuees were sheltered in hotels or hosted by locals from night one. While at first tourist arrivals drastically fell, and hundreds of incoming flights were canceled, normalcy was restored within three weeks.

The wildland–urban interface challenge

More people living in WUI areas enhance ignition opportunities. Moritz et al. ( 19 ) identified several socioecological linkages and have focused on the impact to ecosystems by and their interdependencies with humans. While fires in remote areas are usually triggered by lightning storms, most wildfires appear to be human-caused ( 20 ). It is therefore hardly surprising that hot spots of fire activity have been identified in the WUI in the United States ( 21 ), and 95% of wildfires in Europe are reportedly caused by human negligence or arson ( 22 ). Radeloff et al. ( 23 ) state that the number of houses within wildfire perimentes thas doubled since the 1990s, due to both increased number of houses and larger burned areas. The number of wildfire-related deaths worldwide in the last four decades, based on the global EM-DAT database ( 24 ) shows that 10% of the fires appear responsible for 78% of the deaths (Figure 1 ). Furthermore, the single deadliest fire each year was responsible for 65% of all the deaths in that year, on average. In other words, a small number of fires produce the vast majority of deaths, while eight out of the ten deadliest fires occurred in the WUI.

Wildfire deaths per year, 1970–2023 ( 24 ).

Fires in the WUI pose unique challenges to fire suppression and emergency response. First, whereas urban and wildland firefighting tactics are fundamentally different, WUI fire suppression inherently involves both in close proximity, and tactical incompatibilities may appear. Urban fires will typically have multiple exposures with a fixed source, and direct fire attack using water or foam is the norm. On the other hand, wildland firefighting techniques very often involve indirect attack ( 25 , 26 ). For example, a fireline may be used to interrupt fuel continuity or a backfire may be employed to deprive the fire of oxygen. In the WUI, exposure usually involves a long flame front and multiple sources of ignition. In WUI fires, structural firefighters operate in close proximity with their wildland counterparts, which often creates challenges in communications and coordination, especially when they come from different organizations and jurisdictions.

Different firefighting tactics also mean different equipment. Wildland firefighting personal protective equipment is lighter because structural and atmospheric hazards are more limited in the open, and mobility is essential ( 26 ). Wildland firefighting engines are typically smaller and carry less equipment to remain mobile. This essential mobility in the wilderness may become a limiting factor, and possibly a source of danger, to firefighters in the WUI.

In addition, delayed fire reporting or increased response times increase fire risk to isolated homes and other structures ( 27 ). Fireline access can be challenging, as small backcountry roads and covered bridges might constrain anything but the smallest fire engines, and mutual aid resources could find navigating poorly charted rural roads a hindrance. Also, water supply may be scarce because of a lack of fire hydrants or failures during a power outage ( 28 ). This was the case in Lahaina, in both 2018 and 2023 and in the 2024 Viña del Mar fires in Chile, which took place while this paper was under review.

Second, evacuations are often required in WUI fires but are substantially different than organized evacuations implemented before river floods, landslides, and other natural hazards, or following accidents involving hazardous materials. Wildfire evacuations usually are decided and implemented on very short notice, notably because of difficulties in forecasting weather and predicting fire behavior. In Australia, in particular, there was debate about “stay and defend or go”, but the discussion seems to have settled in favor of “go” ( 29 ). Emergency planning helps alleviate some of that uncertainty. A small number of evacuation courses of action may be analyzed and included in emergency plans, offering options depending on the relative position of residential areas and the fire perimeter, as well as the current and projected weather, topography, and fuels. In Portugal, for example, predesigned evacuation routes and shelter locations are communicated to the public before disaster strikes, thus reducing clearance times when evacuations are warranted ( 30 ).

Regardless, many WUI areas have poor evacuee egress options, not only because of narrow, winding roads, but also traffic congestion ( 31 ). For instance, 23 people, including three seasonal firefighters, were trapped and perished while evacuating the village of Artemida, Greece during the 2007 fire south of ancient Olympia ( 32 ), over a narrow backcountry road that was the only option ( 33 ). In the 2018 Camp Fire in Northern California, staff evacuated patients from the local hospital in their own vehicles. On one occasion, the drive to safety out of the heavily wooded area allegedly took about three hours. This was a very difficult terrain for timely evacuations, nonetheless over 40,000 managed to evacuate. Alerts were reportedly not received by at least 50% of the residents, but completely without them the death toll would likely have been much higher than the 84 who perished. In another example, serious traffic congestion ensued when residents in West Kelowna, British Columbia were asked to evacuate during the 2015 Munt Law wildfire ( 34 ).

With this inadvertently rapid operational tempo, reducing the time between decision-making and the actual evacuation by providing people advanced notice is paramount. Mati and Maui and, to a lesser extent, Paradise—all three incidents were haunted by the lack or failure of public alert and warning systems ( 35 ).

Third, wildfires can rapidly spread out of control and increase in complexity. Large fires are among the most complex incidents, not least because of the geographic area involved, the large number of resources involved, organizational complexity, jurisdictional boundaries, weather, and difficulty in predicting fire spread ( 36–39 ). WUI fires add more layers of complexity, due to the threat to life, property and critical infrastructures, as well as political sensitivities. For example, it has been reported that, during the Mati fires, politicians were calling the fire department asking for prioritization of resources to favor friends and relatives. Climate change is one of the factors increasing the potential for extreme fire behavior, therefore making firefighting less routine while making fires themselves more routine.

Fourth, wildland fires are intricately related to critical infrastructure and form complex feedback loops which lead to compound events ( 40 , 41 ). The risk to energy production and generation assets and the power grid increases with wildfire incidence. Power lines can ignite wildfires through a variety of mechanisms, and fires can damage power utility assets, causing widespread power outages ( 42 ). California's largest utility, Pacific Gas and Electric, pleaded guilty to manslaughter charges and filed for bankruptcy in early 2019, accepting responsibility for its downed power lines that triggered the 2018 Camp Fire, allegedly the costliest natural disaster in that year worldwide. Hawaiian Electric is currently facing lawsuits for alleged negligence in the Maui fires. On the other end, in Mati, the country's national electricity corporation steadfastly refused to entertain even the suggestion that one of its power lines near the point of ignition may have triggered the fire, and thus far has gotten away with it.

The cascading effects of wildland fires increase agent-generated demands and complicate response-generated demands ( 40 , 43 ). Almost any critical infrastructure asset may be affected by wildland fires, even water treatment plants. Fires can melt underground water pipes, thus affecting firefighting, and they can destroy communication towers and power substations. Operators then need to find workarounds or make temporary repairs to restore service to priority customers, typically other critical infrastructure systems. At the same time, governments need to work with operators and affected critical customers to provide backup solutions. A vicious circle ensues, as infrastructure damage delays response and short-term recovery efforts, which in turn slow down restoration and repair ( 44 ).

Climate change and wildfire risk

Wildland fires have an intricate relationship with climate change. Bowman et al. ( 45 ) estimated that wildland fires are responsible for 19% of the anthropogenic radiative forcing. Climate change does yield higher temperatures and drier conditions that prime the landscape for fires to catch and spread more easily. Flannigan et al. ( 46 ) estimate that fire seasons will last 20 days per year longer in the northern high latitudes by the end of the century. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report ( 47 ) notes that fire weather is expected to increase in many parts of the world and, a 2-degree global warming scenario is projected to increase burned area globally by 35%. These estimates are corroborated by regional studies, which point to an increase in the number of human-induced wildfires, burned area, and wildfire risk ( 21 , 48–56 ).

These scenarios are hardly fictitious, as climate change is already increasing wildfire risk around the world. Fire-prone areas are extending poleward to areas previously unaffected. Jolly et al. (2015) found that, by 2013, fire seasons had lengthened in about one-quarter of the Earth's vegetated surface, resulting in an increase of the global average fire season length by 18.7%, compared to 1979. They also estimated that, between 1979 and 2013, the burnable area affected by longer fire weather seasons had doubled. Furthermore, the frequency of long fire-weather seasons increased across more than half of the global vegetated area between 1996 and 2013, compared with 1979–1996. Regional studies corroborate these global findings by showing an increase in the number of fires and the burned area during fire seasons, as well as in the size, extent, and frequency of large fires ( 49 , 56–61 ). Consensus is emerging that the conventional suppression-centered wildfire and forest management strategies applied so far no longer efficiently address megafires, variously defined, but usually as fires that burn over 40,000 hectares.

Furthermore, overnight burning events (OBE), defined as fires that burn through the night, have recently been changing what used to be a familiar diurnal fire cycle. Luo et al. ( 62 ) found that 20% of the 1084 fires burning over 1000 hectares in the period 2017–2020 were OBEs, peaked in the summer, and were primarily associated with droughts. Balch et al. ( 50 ) claimed that, worldwide over the past 30 years, flammable nights have increased by seven, across all burnable lands, and found that night fires are about 7% more intense, while the vapor pressure deficit has increased by 25%. For the western United States, they estimated an 11-day increase over the same period. There is little doubt that there has been an acceleration of OBEs.

Figure 2 depicts megafires between 2012 and 2022 in Europe, Canada, and the United States, compiled out of three different datasets. The European Forest Fire Information System is operated by the European Commission Joint Research Center. Burned areas are estimated from satellite imagery, and information was available until 2023. Natural Resources Canada maintains the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System, based on a compilation of information provided by Canadian fire management agencies including provinces, territories, and Parks Canada. At the time of this writing, data was available only until 2021. In the United States, the National Interagency Fire Center Open Data Site provides a wealth of wildfire-related geospatial information. This dataset includes wildland fires reported to the Integrated Reporting of Wildland Fire Information incident service until 2023.

Megafires in Europe ( 63 ), Canada ( 64 ) and the United States ( 65 ) between 2012 and 2022.

One conclusion from the map in Figure 2 is the lack of a unified system for reporting wildfires around the world. Wildfire data collection around the world is a highly localized endeavor. Data collection techniques vary widely, from the compilation of reports from fire services to highly sophisticated uses of satellite imagery. Although most G20 countries publish quasi-regularly annual wildfire statistics in their official languages, data on individual fires is generally scarce. To make matters worse, there is hardly any consistency in either content or the granularity of the information reported across countries.

Finally, although the short- and long-term effects of wildfires on forests vary with the ability of tree species to regenerate after fires, both the size and costs of wildland fire suppression operations are growing. The increase in cost is partially driven by the high cost of protecting property in the WUI, and urbanization will drive costs even higher. Wildfire suppression costs in the United States have increased fourfold from 1985 to 2016 ( 21 ).

Wading into uncharted waters, governments have mobilized funding for improving suppression capabilities, with aerial firefighting absorbing the lion's share. Improvements in preparedness tend to follow particularly destructive fires or very active fire seasons. For example, following an increase in wildfire incidence across EU countries, the European Commission established “rescEU”, for procuring fixed and rotary wing firefighting aircraft, to create a last-resort capability buffer. Thus, rescEU's aerial firefighting fleet was doubled in 2023, reaching 28 aircraft in 2023, with 12 additional aircraft on order ( 66 , 67 ).

Greece has relied on a combined aerial firefighting fleet of nationally owned and leased aircraft. The country found itself in a double predicament, facing increasingly devastating fire seasons, just as it was getting out of a deep financial crisis, which had essentially prevented the acquisition of expensive assets. It has been progressively leasing more firefighting helicopters and airplanes. Following a series of devastating fire seasons, in 2020, the government announced “Aegis”, a behemoth two-billion-euro program, a third of which will serve to essentially double the country's aerial fighting fleet. In 2022, the Hellenic Fire Service also instituted helitack crews, that is, teams of firefighters transported by helicopter to poorly accessible wildfire flare ups.

France faced a particularly active season in 2022. The total burnt area was 72,000 hectares, or almost five times that of 2021 and about three times that of 2017. Preparing for 2023, it added nine additional fixed and rotary wing aircraft to its 38. It also increased the number of wildland fire-engine strike teams from 44 in 2022 to 51 in 2023 ( 68 ). According to the US Congressional Budget Office ( 69 ), the federal government spent $17.5 billion on wildfire suppression and disaster assistance between 2016 and 2020. In California, following expanding fire seasons and a series of devastating fires, the Department of Forestry and Fire Protection recently acquired 12 new firefighting helicopters and is planning to add seven air tankers to its fleet ( 70 ).

On the other hand, wildfire mitigation and prevention have traditionally received less attention and funding. For instance, the Greek Forest Service had been understaffed, and activities poorly coordinated and underfunded, for decades ( 71 ). Feo et al. ( 72 ) noted a “long history of underinvestment in prevention and mitigation” in California. These are examples of how voters often reward politicians for delivering disaster relief, but not for investing in preparedness, and even less so for mitigation and adaptation, hence governments underinvest ( 73 ).

Moritz et al. ( 19 ) have argued that “cultural and institutional systems affect public response to wildfire, as do psychological and social dynamics”. While true overall, the death toll in recent WUI fires suggests the public is inching towards favoring evacuation. Recent research suggests that public education can motivate voter support in favor of mitigation and preparedness ( 74 ). Anecdotal wildfire policy examples suggest that climate change education in the last few years may have helped to sway public opinion in favor of wildfire mitigation. For instance, in preparation for the 2022 fire season, the Greek government spent 72 million euros, equivalent to the cost of two medium-sized firefighting airplanes, in two nationwide wildfire hazard mitigation programs, involving (i) fuel reduction and clearing and (ii) forest thinning; such an investment was unthinkable five years earlier. It also reorganized the Forest Service to improve coordination and funding. In 2020 and 2021, the State of California appropriated $2.7 billion over a four-year period to wildfire prevention and mitigation, a number which dwarfs the Federal Government's $4 billion through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act ( 75 ).

With rising fire activity brought on by climate change and human development, and increased exposure of people and property in WUI areas, it is unlikely that today's suppression-focused paradigm will remain sustainable, possibly not even in the near future. Here, we present a new paradigm in wildfire risk management that goes beyond suppression and even mitigation, by integrating science-based land management.

First, in light of the projected increase in fire activity and decades of unmitigated biomass accumulation in forests around the world, maintaining adequate fire suppression capabilities, even through mutual aid agreements, may no longer be a fiscally responsible option. On the other hand, the cost-to-benefit ratios of wildfire hazard mitigation measures, including retrofitting buildings to meet or exceed building code standards, range from ¼ to ½ ( 76 ). Communities should consider mitigation strategies that have worked for other hazards, such as insurance and drastically limiting development in the WUI. Fuel treatment strategies, such as prescribed burning, fuel reduction and clearing, and forest thinning, have all shown potential in mitigating wildland fire risk ( 2 , 77 ). In addition, retrofitting properties in the WUI to resist fire hazards has paid off time and again ( 78 ). For instance, a photograph of a 100-year-old wooden house in Lahaina became viral in the aftermath of the August 8 fire, as it was left unscathed while surrounded by piles of charred debris (Figure 3 ). It was later revealed that the owners had retrofitted the home to mitigate wildfire risk. Furthermore, learning from indigenous fire stewardship practices can help mitigate wildfires and increase biodiversity ( 79 ).

Red-roofed Lahaina home left unscathed by the August 8 fire (Source: Getty Images).

Nevertheless, even with increased investment, implementing hazard mitigation strategies and developing additional capabilities will take time. Therefore, improving wildfire response is still needed. Given resource constraints, communities will likely have to prioritize the development of both suppression and mitigation capabilities by accounting for the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems. Multi-year, integrated wildfire risk management plans extending beyond electoral cycles can help reduce the sensitivity of risk management to shifting political short-term priorities and ensure sustainable strategies. Governments need to avoid the established pitfalls of short-sighted, political decision-making and policy choices shaped by what just happened instead of planning for future expectations ( 80 ).

Second, the growing number of megafires indicates that land management strategies need to account for the impact of climate change on forest ecosystems, as well as local effects, such as the rate at which biomass re-accumulates. Governments need to work closer with the forest products industry to integrate land management and wildfire risk management policies. Heterogeneity in vegetation type, age, and structure can help ecosystem resilience to climate change and reduction of biodiversity loss. Fire hazard mitigation measures can be adapted to deliver the needed heterogeneity, for example, by diversifying the conditions of prescribed burns ( 19 ). Moreover, novel uses of wood products and creating markets for excess biomass and smallwood removal and utilization can create local economic development opportunities, while increasing the ecosystem's resilience to wildfires. Several funding mechanisms are now being considered to support appropriate public/private partnerships. Examples include green bonds and more complex schemes, such as partial subsidization of economic opportunities, contingent on the implementation of wildfire mitigation or post-wildfire restoration measures, including landslide and flood mitigation.

Third, in terms of crisis management, a fundamental shift is needed from a mindset of fire suppression to one of emergency response. The increased exposure of people reinforces the need for community-based evacuation planning. Evacuation plans identify transportation routes and ways to increase evacuation throughput (such as contraflow), transportation modes, including mass transit, and shelter locations, so that emergency managers know how little time they have to issue evacuation orders. It is thus clear that public alert and warning systems are becoming an increasingly critical link in the process. These systems provide emergency information to the public, and save lives when disasters are about to strike. Early disaster research ( 81 , 82 ) highlighted that to be effective warning messages need to be received from multiple communication pathways and issued from credible sources. Modern public alert and warning systems enable emergency management agencies to disseminate information through multiple pathways, including mobile and landline phones, radio, television, highway variable-message signs and others. The combination of evacuation plans, public education before disaster strikes, and public alert and warning systems can create a powerful defense against wildland fires and can reduce the loss of life.

Because of the inherent complexity in combining all those technologies, these systems should be tested to the limit of their abilities at regular intervals. In addition to the obvious maintenance benefit, these tests are opportunities for informing the public about the capabilities of alert and warning systems, as well teaching individual and family self-protection in disasters. In the United States, nationwide tests of the Emergency Alert System (which is based on radio and television, cable systems, and satellite radio and television) and the Wireless Emergency Alert (WEA) system, (which delivers alerts from cellular towers to mobile devices using a one-to-many technology called Cell Broadcast (CB)), they have been required no less than every three years since 2015. Nonetheless, the third nationwide test on October 4, 2023 (Figure 4 , left), which came after the Maui catastrophe ( 83 ), was treated by the major news media everywhere as if it was the first ever. In one way it was, because people paid attention to it and could not have opted out, as was the case with the second test message. For the record, the first test was conducted on October 3, 2018, using the Presidential Alert classification and the second on August 11, 2021, using the State/Local WEA Test classification, which requires users to opt in to receive the test alert.

Screenshots of the 2023 nationwide WEA test in the United States (left) and the first nationwide Cell Broadcast message ever in Greece, in 2020 (right). An estimated 300 national messages have followed since then this 11 March 2020 first CB message.

As of December 2018, and likely following the realization that lives could have been saved in the Mati fires earlier that year had there been warnings, European Union countries have been legally required to put in place public alert and warning systems using location-based SMS, or similar technologies, no later than June 2022. However, there are no testing requirements. Although such systems were already used in several European countries before that deadline, Greece was one of the first countries to use Cell Broadcast for wildfire evacuations. Tests are not legally required in Greece as in the United States, but its first nationwide alert was sent on March 11, 2020 (Figure 4 , right), in response to mounting cases of COVID-19, and served as a demonstration of the capability.

Warning and evacuation processes also need to account for populations with access and functional needs. Effective systems can alert populations with disabilities or other special needs, include those with limited proficiency in the main language(s) used in alert and warning messages and, ultimately, anyone who may have difficulties obtaining alert and warning SMS and information.

A combination of forward and reverse planning is required to prepare such plans ( 84 , 85 ). Forward planning builds the evacuation process by describing potential decisions and actions sequentially. Plans should address both agent-generated demands (for example, transportation and shelter) and response-generated demands (for example, information management and logistics). Then, reverse planning determines the time required to complete each task, given the resources that can realistically be made available. Working backwards and using time estimates and task dependencies, emergency managers can identify the times required to complete evacuations once the decision is made. The combination of forward and reverse planning informs the development of time or land-benchmark triggers for evacuation decision-making. For example, there will be evacuations regardless of conditions, if a fire reaches a particular critical location, or if there is less than x minutes for the fire to spread from its point of ignition to the nearest shoreline.

Fundamentally, hard as it may be in practice, evacuations need to be completed before the flame front spreads close enough to populated areas. Fire smoke may cause serious injury to sensitive individuals; this needs to be accounted for as well. Evacuation modeling is necessary to inform evacuation planning and decision-making. It can provide estimates of the time needed to evacuate areas threatened by wildfires, as well as pedestrian and vehicle traffic flow rates, in different scenarios and allows analysis of different courses of action ( 86 , 87 ). As was done post-facto in Mati ( 88 , 89 ), combined with wildfire spread simulation, evacuation modeling can be a powerful tool in setting triggers for evacuation decision-making ( 90 ). Stefanakis et al. ( 91 ) used an AI statistical model of a tsunami “experiment” constantly updated as new results arrived, then future query points were selected according to the objectives, until achieved. In this manner, they identified worst-case scenarios that were previously only obvious with 100% hindsight. Such active experimental design and machine learning algorithms can reduce the exceptionally large number of numerical simulations needed to identify time-optimal escape routes in advance, particularly in the presence of projectiles (embers), which change the spread dynamics. Evacuation modeling is also a powerful tool in public outreach, as people at risk can expect how much time they really have. Coupled with avatars, people can visualize themselves evacuating, at different speeds, temperatures, and visibilities. Such an approach could become the gold standard for planning evacuations and educating people.

Fourth, science and technology can be leveraged to improve strategic, operational, and tactical emergency planning. Evaluating variables, such as meteorological conditions, fire danger, fire location, time of day, and fire size at the time of dispatch are now increasingly used in setting dispatch levels and resource estimates, along with lessons learned from previous fires and institutional memory. Machine learning, again, can streamline these processes. For example, Lam et al. ( 92 ) show how it can best medium-range numerical weather predictions (NWP) forecasts very quickly. Introducing AI fire prediction operationally remains vexing, given the varied locations, diverse data, and one-of-a-kind fires, even in a single locale.

Even when such timely predictions materialize, resource management should become more dynamic and anticipatory through the employment of other tools. For instance, mutual aid agreements can be activated preemptively based on risk estimates. In 2023, Greece activated the EU Civil Protection Mechanism (the European equivalent to the Emergency Management Assistance Compact in the United States) to preposition fire engines and hand crews from other countries in high-risk areas, during the hottest and driest summer months. The Hellenic Fire Service hires seasonal firefighters every year, aiming to increase its force by 10% during the “hot” season ( 8 ). These actions are particularly useful in islands, which present additional tactical challenges, not the least of which is related to their insularity and limited options for evacuation. Emergency management worldwide needs to consider the option of evacuating to beaches, which has made fires on Greek islands far less deadly than the mainland.

Earlier, we discussed how advances in forestry and biology can support integrated management of wildfire risk, how cutting-edge communications systems enable alert and warning messages to reach millions of people in seconds, and how evacuation modeling can support emergency planning and rapid decision-making.

Satellite images are a staple in many crisis management centers. Landsat has been around for decades, but the time windows between images do not allow for effective proactive modeling. Algorithms convert observations of the Earth's surface in the visible and infrared domains from meteorological and other satellites into measurements of fire hot spots and assessments of wildfire impacts in near real-time ( 93–95 ). Recently, advances in earth observation have allowed scientists, at least in Europe and North America, to track wildfires and even calculate fire spread, every twelve hours, based on satellite imagery ( 96 ). NASA's Fire Events Data Suite is claimed to provide more frequent monitoring of fire activity, growth, and behavior than has ever been available ( 59 ). In a significant breakthrough, private operating satellite constellations now claim they are able to provide end users with predictions of the spread of wildfires and floods, informed through data assimilation, as images become available from successive satellite passes. In one example, a satellite constellation of Portugal and Spain, possibly to be augmented by Greek satellites, beginning (it's been claimed) in 2024, will provide high resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images about every four hours. The consortium will also provide estimates of the projected evolution of the fire perimeter, until the next set of images becomes available. When augmented by thermal imaging and comprehensive vegetation spatial distributions, the evolution predictions can improve further and can become game changers in megafire suppression. Once such analyses become standard, AI fire modeling could become routine, given that there will be uniform image datasets associated with specific weather parameters to mine from.

Moreover, artificial intelligence is already in use to streamline real-time or near real-time detection of wildfires in poorly accessible areas ( 97 , 98 ). State-of-the-art robots provide situational awareness, and autonomous systems operating closer to the fireline are under development for improving information management ( 99 ). The integration of satellite imagery with feeds from other sources, such as thermal, surveillance and traffic cameras and weather stations, they can vastly accelerate information management in the Emergency Operations Centers of the next decade.

Climate change, increased development in the WUI, and a long history of emphasis on fire suppression over hazard mitigation has increased wildfire risk worldwide. Governments are exploring the issue, but spending is mostly geared toward fire suppression. Here, we propose a long-term approach, incorporating wildfire risk management in wider-scope forest land management policies and strategies. The latter need to account for the impact of climate change and hazard mitigation on forest ecosystems. Improving suppression capabilities is like performing CPR on a cardiac arrest patient: it buys needed time until a more sustainable strategy takes effect, but will not, in and by itself, suffice for longevity. A renewed focus and increased spending on hazard mitigation and fire prevention is also required to stem the impact of megafires threatening human settlements and ecosystems in the WUI. Furthermore, a fundamental shift is needed from a mindset of fire suppression to one of emergency response. Evacuation planning supported by public alert and warning capabilities always saves lives, and more so with prior planning. Last, we urge the wildland fire community to invest in the uptake of scientific breakthroughs and new technologies, including machine learning and earth observation, to help improve decision-making and, ultimately, save more lives. Until then, in at-risk WUI areas, everyone needs to understand that a threatening wildfire could happen anytime from spring to fall and that they may need to leave immediately.

The authors declare no funding.

Both authors designed and performed research, analyzed the data, and wrote the paper.

The following data were used in the preparation of this manuscript:

[dataset] CRED/UCLouvain, n.d., “EM-DAT”. Brussels, Belgium: University of Louvain. www.emdat.be .

[dataset] European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), n.d., “Burnt Areas database”. European Commission. [accessed 2023 Nov 12]. https://forest-fire.emergency.copernicus.eu/apps/effis.statistics/estimates .

[dataset] Natural Resources Canada (NRC), n.d., “National Fire Database fire point data”. [accessed 2023 Nov 12]. https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/datamart/download/nfdbpnt .

[dataset] National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), n.d., “Wildland Fire Incident Locations”. [accessed 2023 Nov 12]. https://data-nifc.opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/nifc::wildland-fire-incident-locations/explore .

All of the data listed above are publicly available to download at no charge by the respective organizations.

Lu M , Ikejiri T , Lu Y-H . 2021 . A synthesis of the Devonian wildfire record: implications for paleogeography, fossil flora, and paleoclimate . Palaeogeo Palaeoclimat Palaeoeco 571 ( 1 ): 110321 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2021.110321

Google Scholar

Bowman DMJS , et al.  2011 . The human dimension of fire regimes on earth . J Biogeogr . 38 : 2223 – 2236 .

van Wagtendonk JW . 2007 . The history and evolution of wildland fire use . Fire Ecol . 3 : 3 – 17 .

Associated Press . 2024. The death toll from Chile's wildfires reaches 131, and more than 300 people are missing. [accessed 2024 Feb]. https://apnews.com/article/chile-deadly-wildfires-valparaiso-d40a40ed31d14d7901080f0d700d2afa .

Akbarzai S , Paddison L . 2024. Wildfires that are turning neighborhoods to ash are likely Chile's deadliest on record, UN agency says. CNN. [accessed 2024 Feb]. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/06/climate/chile-wildfires-deadliest-climate-intl/index.html .

National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) . 2023. Wildland Fires in US History with Ten or More Fatalities. Available at: https://www.nfpa.org/-/media/Files/News-and-Research/Fire-statistics-and-reports/WUI/Wildland-Fires-in-the-US-history-with-10-or-more-deaths.ashx (August 2023).

Synolakis CE . 2023. The Fire in Maui and the Lesson of Greece. Wall Street Journal. Available at: https://www.wsj.com/articles/lahaina-and-the-fires-in-greece-firefighters-natural-disaster-evacuations-maui-emergency-hawaii-fa99f1c0 (August 13, 2023).

Synolakis CE , Karagiannis GM . 2023. Why Didn’t Hawaii Evacuate Sooner During the Fires?. The New York Times. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/19/opinion/maui-wildfires-hawaii-sirens.html (August 19, 2023).

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) . 2022 . The chemistry of fires at the wildland-urban interface . Washington (DC) : The National Academies Press .

Google Preview

Kollanus V , et al.  2017 . Mortality due to vegetation fire-originated PM 2.5 exposure in Europe—assessment for the years 2005 and 2008 . Environ Health Perspect . 125 ( 1 ): 30 – 37 .

Rooney B , et al.  2020 . Air quality impact of the Northern California camp fire of November 2018 . Atm Chem Phys . 20 ( 23 ): 14597 – 14616 . https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14597-2020

Chen G , et al.  2021 . Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM 2.5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations . Lancet Plan Health . 5 ( 9 ): E579 – E587 .

Okal EA , Plafker G , Synolakis CE , Borrero JC . 2003 . Near-field survey of the 1946 Aleutian tsunami on Unimak and Sanak Islands . Seism Soc Am Bul . 93 : 1226 – 1234 .

McEntire DA . 2022 . Disaster response and recovery: strategies and tactics for resilience . Third Edition. Hoboken (NJ) : Wiley .

Burgan RE , Fujioka FM , Hirata GH . 1974 . A fire danger rating system for Hawaii . Fire Technol . 10 : 275 – 281 .

Kantouris C , Gatopoulos D . 2018. Greek fire damages over 2,000 homes, 500 of them gutted. Associated Press. Available at: https://apnews.com/article/fires-forensics-greece-wildfires-international-news-d364517576614fc78022d1993a491aed (July 27, 2018).

BBC . 2023. Greece fires in maps and satellite images show extent of damage. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66295972 (July 27, 2023).

Nellas D . 2023. 2,000 people including tourists evacuated as a wildfire rages on the Greek island of Rhodes. Associated Press. Available at: https://apnews.com/article/fire-rhodes-greece-evacuations-heat-wave-1a9fb0d687ce22c9087bf83ac7973cf1 (July 22, 2023).

Moritz MA , et al.  2014 . Learning to coexist with wildfire . Nature . 515 : 58 – 66 .

Krawchuck MA , Moritz MA . 2011 . Constraints on global fire activity vary across a resource gradient . Ecology . 92 ( 1 ): 121 – 132 .

USGCRP . 2018 . [ Reidmiller DR , et al.  (eds.)], Impacts, risks, and adaptation in the United States: fourth national climate assessment , Volume II . Washington, DC, USA : US Global Change Research Program .

Ganteaume A , et al.  2013 . A review of the main driving factors of forest fire ignition over Europe . Environ Manage . 51 ( 3 ): 651 – 662 .

Radeloff VC , et al.  2023 . Rising wildfire risk to houses in the United States especially in grasslands and scrublands . Science . 382 : 702 – 707 .

CRED/UCLouvain . 2023. [dataset] n.d ., EM-DAT . Brussels, Belgium : University of Louvain .

Gorte RW , Bracmort K . 2012 . Wildfire protection in the wildland urban interface . Washington (DC) : Congressional Research Service .

National Wildfire Coordinating Group (NWCG) . 2014. Wildland fire incident management field guide . https://gacc.nifc.gov/swcc/dc/nmadc/dispatch_logistics/dispatch/documents/2014%20Wildland%20Fire%20Incident%20Management%20Field%20Guide.pdf .

Lampin-Maillet C , et al.  2010 . Mapping wildland-urban interfaces at large scales integrating housing density and vegetation aggregation for fire prevention in the South of France . J Environ Manage . 91 ( 3 ): 732 – 741 .

United States Fire Administration (USFA) . 2002 . Fires in the wildland/urban interface . US Fire Admin Top Fire Res Ser . 2 ( 16) . https://apps.usfa.fema.gov/downloads/pdf/statistics/v2i16-508.pdf .

McLennan J , Ryan B , Bearman C , Toh K . 2019 . Should we leave now? Behavioral factors in evacuation under wildfire threat . Fire Technol . 55 : 487 – 516 .

Benali A , Aparicio BA , Goncalves A , Oliveira S . 2023 . Defining priorities for wildfire mitigation actions at the local scale: insights from a novel risk analysis method applied in Portugal . Front For Glob Change . 6 : 1270210 . https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2023.1270210

United States Fire Administration (USFA) . 2022. Wildland Urban Interface: A Look at Issues and Resolutions. US Fire Administration. [accessed 2024 Apr 27]. https://www.usfa.fema.gov/downloads/pdf/publications/wui-issues-resolutions-report.pdf .

Synolakis CE . 2007. Olympic Torching. Wall Street Journal. Available at: https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB118816586120409172 (August 27, 2007).

Xanthopoulos G , Viegas DX , Caballero D . 2009. The fatal fire entrapment accident of August 24, 2007, near the village of Artemida, Ilia, Greece. Abstracts from the 10 th Wildland Fire Summit, Phoenix, Arizona. [accessed 2024 May 6]. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Gavriil-Xanthopoulos-2/publication/285541773_The_fatal_fire_entrapment_of_Artemida_Greece_2007/links/56653a2f08ae15e746330760/The-fatal-fire-entrapment-of-Artemida-Greece-2007.pdf .

Szeto W . 2022. Bracing for wildfire season, residents of this West Kelowna neighbourhood are asking for more exit routes. CBC. Available at: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/west-kelowna-wildfire-glenrosa-road-traffic-congestion-1.6412905 (April 2022).

Synolakis C . 2018. Lessons from the Paradise Fire. The Wall Street Journal. Available at: https://www.wsj.com/articles/lessons-from-the-paradise-fire-1542577702 (November 18, 2018).

McLennan J , Holgate AM , Omodei MM , Wearing AJ . 2006 . Decision making effectiveness in wildfire incident management teams . J Conting Crisis Manag . 14 ( 1 ): 27 – 37 .

Hand M , Katuwal H , Calkin DE , Thompson MP . 2017 . The influence of incident management teams on the deployment of wildfire suppression resources . Int J Wild Fire . 26 ( 7 ): 615 – 629 .

Thompson MP . 2013 . Modeling wildfire incident complexity dynamics . PLoS One . 8 ( 5 ): e63297 . https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0063297

Thomspon MP . 2014 . Social, institutional, and psychological factors affecting wildfire incident decision making . Soc Nat Resourc . 27 ( 6 ): 636 – 644 .

Pescaroli G , Alexander D . 2018 . Understanding compound, interconnected, interacting, and cascading risks: a holistic framework . Risk Anal . 38 ( 11 ): 2245 – 2257 .

Pescaroli G , et al.  2023 . Managing systemic risk in emergency management, organizational resilience and climate change adaptation . Disast Prev Manag . 32 ( 1 ): 234 – 251 .

Mitchell JW . 2013 . Power line failures and catastrophic wildfires under extreme weather conditions . Eng Fail Anal . 35 : 726 – 735 .

Alexander D . 2000 . Confronting catastrophe: new perspectives on natural disasters . Hertfordshire, UK : Terra Publishing .

Kern H , Krausmann E . 2020 . Wildfires triggering natech events . Luxembourg : Publications Office of the European Union .

Bowman DMJS , et al.  2009 . Fire in the earth system . Science . 324 ( 5926 ): 481 – 484 .

Flannigan M , et al.  2013 . Global wildland fire season severity in the 21st century . For Ecol Manag . 294 : 54 – 61 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2012.10.022

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) . 2022 . Climate change 2022: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change . Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA : Cambridge University Press .

Zhuang Y , Fu R , Santer BD , Dickinson RE , Hall A . 2021 . Quantifying contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic forcings on increased fire weather risk over the western United States . Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A . 118 ( 45 ):e2111875118. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2111875118

Barbero R , Abatzoglou JT , Larkin NK , Kolden CA , Stocks B . 2015 . Climate change presents increased potential for very large fires in the contiguous United States . Int J Wild Fire . 24 : 892 – 899 .

Balch JK , et al.  2022 . Warming weakens the night-time barrier to global fire . Nature . 602 : 442 – 448 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-04325-1

Yue X , Mickley LJ , Logan JA . 2014 . Projection of wildfire activity in southern California in the mid-twenty-first century . Clim Dyn . 43 : 1973 – 1991 .

Litschert SE , Brown TC , Theobald DM . 2012 . Historic and future extent of wildfires in the Southern Rockies Ecoregion, USA . For Ecol & Man . 269 : 124 – 133 .

Prestemon JP , et al.  2016 . Projecting wildfire area burned in the south-eastern United States, 2011–60 . Int J Wild Fire . 25 : 715 – 729 .

San Miguel J , et al.  2017 . Climatological risk: wildfires. In: Poljanšek K , Marín Ferrer M , De Groeve T , Clark I , editors. Science for disaster risk management 2017: knowing better and losing less . Luxembourg : Publications Office of the European Union .

Dowdy AJ , et al.  2019 . Future changes in extreme weather and pyroconvection risk factors for Australian wildfires . Sci Rep . 9 : 10073 .

Costa H , de Rigo D , Libertà G , Houston Durrant T , San-Miguel-Ayanz J . 2020 . European Wildfire danger and vulnerability in a changing climate: towards integrating risk dimensions . Luxembourg : Publications Office of the European Union .

Belcher CM , et al.  2021 . UK Wildfires and their climate challenges . Exeter, UK : University of Exeter Global Systems Institute .

Horton H . 2022. Summer wildfires increased fourfold in England in 2022. The Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/30/summer-wildfires-increased-fourfold-in-england-in-2022 (December 30, 2022).

National Aeronautical and Space Agency (NASA) . 2023. Tracking Canada's Extreme 2023 Fire Season. Available at: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151985/tracking-canadas-extreme-2023-fire-season (July 23, 2023).

Abatzoglou JT , Cohen CA . 2013 . Relationships between climate and macroscale area burned in the western United States . Int J Wild Fire . 22 : 1003 – 1020 .

Donovan VM , Wonkka CL , Twidwell D . 2017 . Surging wildfire activity in a grassland biome . Geoph Res Let . 44 : 5986 – 5993 .

Luo K , Wang X , de Jong M , Flannigan M . 2024 . Drought triggers and sustains overnight fires in North America . Nature . 627 : 321 – 327 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07028-5

[dataset] European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS). n.d., Burnt Areas database. European Commission. [accessed 2023 Nov 12]. https://forest-fire.emergency.copernicus.eu/apps/effis.statistics/estimates .

[dataset] Natural Resources Canada (NRC), n.d . National Fire Database fire point data. Available at https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/datamart/download/nfdbpnt (accessed November 12, 2023).

[dataset] National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) , n.d. Wildland Fire Incident Locations. Available at: https://data-nifc.opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/nifc::wildland-fire-incident-locations/explore (accessed November 12, 2023).

Abnett K . 2023. EU plans to buy new firefighting planes as climate crises worsen, Reuters. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-plans-buy-new-firefighting-planes-climate-crises-worsen-2023-07-26/ (July 26, 2023).

Tennant C . 2023. Will the EU's €720 million gamble on firefighting planes pay off?, Euronews. Available at: https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/09/17/will-the-eus-720-million-gamble-on-firefighting-planes-pay-off (September 17, 2023).

Ministère de l’Intérieur et des Outre-mer (MIOM), Ministère de la Transition écologique et de la Cohésion des territoires, Ministère de l’Agriculture et de la Souveraineté alimentaire, “Lutte contre les feux de forêt: protéger les populations, les biens et l’environnement—Dossier de presse 2023”. Available at: https://agriculture.gouv.fr/telecharger/136293 (April 11, 2023).

US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) . 2022. Wildfires. [accessed 2022 Jun]. https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2022-06/57970-Wildfires.pdf .

California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CALFIRE), Aviation Program. Available at: https://www.fire.ca.gov/what-we-do/fire-protection/aviation-program (Accessed October 2023).

Pandey P , et al.  2023 . A global outlook on increasing wildfire risk: current policy situation and future pathways . Tr For Peo . 14 : 100431 .

Feo TJ , Mace AJ , Brady SE , Lindsey B . 2020 . The costs of wildfire in California—an independent review of scientific and technical information . Sacramento (CA) : California Council on Science and Technology .

Healy A , Malhotra N . 2009 . Myopic voters and natural disaster policy . Am Pol Sci Rev . 103 ( 3 ): 387 – 406 .

Anderson SE , DeLeo R , Taylor K . 2023 . Legislators do not harness voter support for disaster preparedness . Risk Haz Cris in Pub Pol . 14 ( 1 ): 68 – 88 .

Foard C , et al.  2022. Wildfires: Burning Through State Budgets. The Pew Charitable Trusts. Available at: https://www.pewtrusts.org/-/media/assets/2022/11/wildfires-burning-through-state-budgets.pdf (November 2022).

Porter K , et al.  2019. Natural hazard mitigation saves: 2019 report . Washington (DC) : National Institute of Building Sciences .

United States Forest Service (USFS) . Confronting the Wildfire Crisis: A Strategy for Protecting Communities and Improving Resilience in America's Forests. Available at: https://www.fs.usda.gov/sites/default/files/fs_media/fs_document/Confronting-the-Wildfire-Crisis.pdf (January 2022).

Penman TD , et al.  2017 . Retrofitting for wildfire resilience: what is the cost? Int J Dis Risk Red . 21 : 1 – 10 .

Hoffman KM , et al.  2021 . Conservation of Earth's biodiversity is embedded in indigenous fire stewardship . Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A . 118 ( 32 ):e2105073118. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2105073118

Mulligan TD , Taylor K , DeLeo RA . 2019 . Politics and policies for managing natural hazards . Oxf Res Enc on Nat Haz Sci . https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.013.314

Mileti DS , Sorensen J . 1990 . Communication of emergency public warning: A social science perspective and state-of-the-art assessment . Oak Ridge (TN) : Oak Ridge National Laboratory .

Quarantelli EL . 1990 . The warning process and evacuation behavior: the research evidence . Newark (DE) : Disaster Research Center, University of Delaware .

Carballo R . 2023. Nationwide Alert Reaches Cellphones, TVs and Radios. The New York Times. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/30/us/test-alert-us-october.html (October 4, 2023).

Karagiannis GM , Synolakis CE . 2017 . Twenty challenges in incident planning . J Hom Sec Emer Man . 14 ( 2 ): 20160061 . https://doi.org/10.1515/jhsem-2016-0061

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) . 2010 . Developing and maintaining emergency operations plans—comprehensive preparedness guide (CPG) 101—version 2.0 . Washington (DC) : US Department of Homeland Security .

Zhao B , Wong SD . 2021 . Developing transportation response strategies for wildfire evacuations via an empirically supported traffic simulation of Berkeley, California . Trans Res Rec . 2675 ( 12 ): 557 – 582 .

Pishahang M , Ruiz-Tagle A , Lopez Droguett E , Ramos M , Mosleh A . 2024. WISE: A Probabilistic Wildfire Safe Egress Planning Framework and Software Platform. Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management PSAM 16, Honolulu, HI. Available at: https://www.iapsam.org/PSAM16/papers/ALL-PSAM16-PAPERS.zip (April 3, 2024).

Synolakis C . 2018. The deadly fire of July 23rd at Mati: Fire and evacuation modeling [Greek]. Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTPUEyNh7-0 (September 2018).

Synolakis C , Karagiannis G . 2023. Heatwaves and wildfires: How Greece is handling the double whammy. eKathimerini. Available at: https://www.ekathimerini.com/opinion/1216624/heatwaves-and-wildfires-how-greece-is-handling-the-double-whammy/ (July 30, 2023).

Li D , Cova TJ , Dennison PE . 2018 . Setting wildfire evacuation triggers by coupling fire and traffic simulation models: a spatiotemporal GIS approach . Fire Tech . 55 : 617 – 642 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10694-018-0771-6

Stefanakis TS , Contal E , Vayatis N , Dias F , Synolakis CE . 2014 . Can small islands protect nearby coasts from tsunamis? An active experimental design approach . Proc R Soc A . 470 : 20140575 . https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2014.0575

Lam R , et al.  2023 . Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting . Science . 382 : 1416 – 1421 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi2336

Jiao L , Bo Y . 2022 . Near real-time mapping of burned area by synergizing multiple satellites remote-sensing data . GISci Rem Sens . 59 ( 1 ): 1956 – 1977 . https://doi.org/10.1080/15481603.2022.2143690

Thangavel K , Spiller D , Sabatini R , Marzocca P , Esposito M . 2023 . Near real-time wildfire management using distributed satellite system . IEEE Geosci Rem Sens Lett . 20 : 5500705 . https://doi.org/10.1109/LGRS.2022.3229173

Andela N , et al.  2022 . Tracking and classifying Amazon fire events in near real time . Sci Adv . 8 ( 30 ): eabd2713 . https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd2713

Chen Y , et al.  2022 . California wildfire spread derived using VIIRS satellite observations and an object-based tracking system . Sci Rep . 9 : 249 .

Fuller T . 2023. Can AI detect wildfires faster than humans? California is trying to find out. The New York Times. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/24/us/wildfires-ai-detection-california.html (August 24, 2023).

Ban Y , Zhang P , Nascetti A , Bevington AR , Wulder MA . 2020 . Near real-time wildfire progression monitoring with sentinel-1 SAR time series and deep learning . Sci Rep . 10 : 1322 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-56967-x

Colajanni G , Daniele P , Nagurney A , Nagurney L , Sciacca D . 2023 . A three-stage stochastic optimization model integrating 5G technology and UAVs for disaster management . J Glob Optimiz . 86 : 741 – 780 . doi: 0.1007/s10898-023-01274-z

Author notes

Email alerts, citing articles via.

• Contact PNAS Nexus
• Advertising and Corporate Services
• Journals Career Network

Affiliations

• Online ISSN 2752-6542
• Copyright © 2024 National Academy of Sciences
• About Oxford Academic
• Publish journals with us
• University press partners
• What we publish
• New features  
• Open access
• Institutional account management
• Rights and permissions
• Get help with access
• Accessibility
• Advertising
• Media enquiries
• Oxford University Press
• Oxford Languages
• University of Oxford

Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University's objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide

• Copyright © 2024 Oxford University Press
• Cookie settings
• Cookie policy
• Privacy policy
• Legal notice

This Feature Is Available To Subscribers Only

Sign In or Create an Account

This PDF is available to Subscribers Only

For full access to this pdf, sign in to an existing account, or purchase an annual subscription.