change risk manager

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This article was first published on May 17, 2021.

While change is the only constant in life, there are certainly periods where change is more amplified. We currently find ourselves in one of those periods. The world and our key industries are not immune to the ripple effects of the global pandemic. As an example, for the financial services industry, there are many drivers of change: in the short term, retail banks are facing downward pressures on net income due to record-low interest rates and increasing delinquency rates, and the need to trim costs quickly; in the medium term, new remote working routines are further accelerating digitization, automation, and disintermediation. As a result, business and operating models are trying to adapt to the “new normal.”

The firms able to effectively deliver change will thrive and are more likely to emerge stronger from these changes. However, as recent social science research has shown, delivering change is no easy task: humans have a natural bias against change. Failing to drive change is a challenge to the competitiveness and sustainability of any firm, creating monetary costs, eroding trust with customers and investors, and weighing on culture and employee engagement. On the flip side, firms that successfully deliver change set off a self-reinforcing feedback loop that increases profitability and productivity, builds trust with stakeholders, and attracts top talent.

An often forgotten institutional ‘muscle’ for firms is the ability to effectively manage change risk —the risk that a change program fails to deliver the desired goals. We believe that most firms do not proactively manage change risk in a way that commensurate with the benefits of success and the costs of failure. Effectively managing change risk is a necessary ‘muscle’ to reduce, preempt, mitigate, and manage the challenges that come with (intents of) transformation, without bringing decision paralysis or stifling innovation in the organization. We refer to change risk as a ‘silent risk’ because this ‘muscle’ is often neglected and, too often, that neglect is one of the root causes behind the inability to drive to the desired outcomes.

In our paper, we present an approach to proactively manage change risk, including:

• How to manage change across the end-to-end change lifecycle, to ensure firms develop fit for purpose mechanisms
• How change risk management is a key component of the journey, and the best ways to understand drivers of successful change
• Recommendation for four key change management capabilities, a change risk management framework, change delivery igniters, workforce change capacity management, and a process for initiative prioritization; and actions to help leaders make change management a priority

Below is an excerpt from the report, for the full PDF version, please click here .

Our views on successful change

Effective change boils down to directing energy and aligning efforts toward three key elements:

• The strategy and thinking
• The people and behaviors
• The underlying infrastructure

We call these elements the Head, the Heart, and the Guts of an organization. Successful change should have risk management embedded into these key elements.

Successful change occurs when the Head, the Heart, and the Guts are fully aligned, resulting in an organization that has: (1) the willingness to change—through leadership, personal drive, and the identification of strategic value; and (2) the ability to execute—through an adequate workforce, the right infrastructure, and a clear roadmap.

Too often, firms facing change tend to focus on the Head at the expense of the Guts and, especially, the Heart. Such firms often struggle to achieve successful change because lasting change requires individuals to collectively change behaviors. For example, a firm does not become more customer-centric when rolling out a new top-down campaign or training module. Rather, the firm becomes customer-centric when the workforce begins adopting customer-centric behaviors—the way customer interactions play out; the way products are configured; and the way senior leadership communicates and makes decisions.

Change is the only constant in life Heraclitus, c. 535 BCE – 475 BCE.

Experience and research indicate that, for change to occur, each level of the organization needs to understand the objectives and purpose of the change, as well as the new behaviors to adopt. Change experts across the globe call these “vital behaviors”—the smallest actions that, if consistently repeated, will lead to the intended outcomes.

In driving change , the ability to manage change risk needs to be developed in the Guts (through risk management capabilities); the Heart (through an understanding of the workforce stoppers and capacity in the firm); and the Head (through the incorporation of change risk into the firm strategy). Our research shows that, historically, neither risk managers nor front-line risk owners have paid enough attention to managing change risk. If firms believe—as we do—that a better managed change risk is a key success factor, firms must pay more attention to driving alignment between Heart, Head, and Guts in order to achieve successful change, and also appropriately embed risk management capabilities across these elements.

We have identified four capabilities for firms that can increase opportunities to drive effective change management:

1. Change risk management framework: Adapt the firm’s overall risk management framework to cover change risk across the lifecycle

2. Change igniters: Clear obstacles to build a change-oriented organization by diagnosing and addressing organizational weaknesses

3. Workforce change capacity management: Monitor change load and change fatigue, as well as improve organizational agility

4. Initiative prioritization: Develop a process for assessing change initiatives to maximize impact within change capacity

We believe firms that achieve these four capabilities will see an increased efficacy and decreased risk associated with the change programs. Returning to the change lifecycle in the exhibit below, we show how these capabilities can reinforce each stage and broaden the role risk management teams play well beyond the implementation and go-live steps.

Actions for effective change risk management

Given both, the necessity of achieving successful change in the current tumultuous world and the high cost of failure, organizations cannot afford to take a reactive or narrow approach to change risk management.

We recommend front-line and risk management leaders:

Overall, firms that succeed in incorporating change risk management into processes and culture will become more agile and more resilient, while firms that lag will run the risk of being caught flat-footed when the next disruption arrives. Firms that proactively manage change risk will be able to overcome the silent risk that hinders growth and emerge as winners.

The authors would like to acknowledge and thank Jonathan Lee and Rutger von Post for their contributions to this paper.

• Financial Services
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• Chris DeBrusk, and
• Antonio Tugores

Striving For Operational Resilience: The Questions Boards And Senior Management Should Ask

Operational resilience has become a key agenda item for boards and senior management. Increasing complexity in processes and IT, dependence on third parties, interconnectedness and data sharing, and sophistication of malicious actors have made disruptions more likely and their impact more severe. High-profile examples of business and operational disruptions abound, covering all segments of the financial services industry.

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Non-Financial Risk Management has become more complex due to rapid shifts in technology, automation and greater dependence by banks on systems instead of people.

What Could Go Wrong? How to Manage Risk for Successful Change Initiatives

David Shore, instructor of Strategies for Leading Successful Change Initiatives, shares six steps to effective risk management.

David Shore

Every change initiative comes with inherent risk. But too often we shy away from exploring the potential pitfalls at the outset. If we are to succeed, however, we should embrace risk. After all, change initiatives are born from a risk analysis — a conclusion that the risk of doing nothing is higher than the risk of embarking on an experimental initiative.

When leading a change initiative, you should focus on acknowledging, anticipating, and managing risk — instead of avoiding it at all costs.

The good news is that risk management is not rocket science. Through my extensive work with change initiatives, I’ve identified six key steps to effective risk management. By following these steps on your initiative, I hope you’ll discover how embracing risk can lead to success.

Six Steps to Effective Risk Management

1. at the start, identify the risks you face..

Make a list. Formalize this process by holding a  premortem . Just as a  postmortem  enables the team to assess what went right or wrong after the fact, a  premortem  provides a space for thinking in advance about what could go wrong during the project. As you and your team brainstorm, you should cast a wide net. Consider factors intrinsic to the project and also those outside the team’s control. For example, consider the risk of potential resistance from stakeholders, which nearly always arises in change initiatives.

2. Quantify the Risks.

Not all risks are created equal. The risk of a slight delay in funding might be very different from the risk of a major partner pulling out of a joint venture. By quantifying the risk, you decrease the influence emotions can play and allow different risks to be compared. One method is to assess the risk along two dimensions: the probability of the risk occurring, and the impact the risk would have if it actually occurred. Using a scale from one to five, you can evaluate each of these dimensions for the risks you’ve identified. Then, you can multiply the two numbers to produce a risk factor from 1 to 25.

3. Establish a Risk Threshold.

Consider your initiative’s tolerance for risk and then establish a threshold. If you are not sure where to start, set your threshold at the center of your risk scale. For example, on a scale of 1 to 25, start with 12 as your threshold. Compare your quantified risks to the threshold and then spend some time thinking about the ones that exceed the threshold and then adjust as needed.

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4. Create Contingency Plans.

For each risk, engage in a thought experiment. First, think about what steps you can take, if any, to eliminate or mitigate the risk. It may be that a small adjustment to your plan will reduce the probability to zero. Second, think about what you plan to do if that possibility becomes reality — in other words, if the risk becomes an issue. Will the team be able to work around it easily? Or will the magnitude of that risk require rethinking your entire initiative? The more you plan for risks ahead of time, the better prepared you will be — and the more successful you will be in keeping your initiative on track

5. Monitor Risks over Time.

Along with the Gantt charts, status reports, dashboards, and other tools that help you assess your progress, you can also create a Risk Register (also called a Risk Log) that sets out all the risks, their risk factors, and current status. As you reach a particular milestone, perhaps one risk can be eliminated from consideration because it is no longer possible. Perhaps another risk has created an issue that needs to be dealt with. Or perhaps a new risk has been identified and should be evaluated. Your goal is to keep a close eye on risk throughout the project.

6. Consider Assigning a Risk Watcher.

You may want to identify a particular team member who has the responsibility to monitor risks and raise flags. Teams working on change initiatives are by definition optimistic. While everyone else on the team might be saying, “This will go fine,” someone needs to be able to say, “Clouds are rolling in” or “We’ve said that for the last six meetings and it hasn’t happened.”

To manage risk successfully, you need to be proactive in anticipating it. And to lead a change initiative successfully, you need to be an honest communicator. Talk with your team and with upper management about risks to the project and issues that crop up along the way. As a manager, you can improve your ability to manage risk by fostering a culture that values positive thinking while encouraging open discussions about problems.

Embracing change means embracing risk. With the right pragmatic approach, you can become a more effective change agent by understanding risk as a natural part of change — and by anticipating and managing it.

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About the Author

Shore is an authority on change management recognized as distinguished professor at Tianjin University of Finance and Economics and 2015 Top Thought Leader in Trust.

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Roles & Responsibilities of a Change Manager

Unlock the essentials of change management: navigating roles, strategies, and impact in the evolving world of it.

• Best practices

In the ever-evolving terrain of IT Service Management ( ITSM ), a Change Manager isn't just a role—it's a mission. This pivotal position is less about managing change and more about mastering it. The Change Manager is the anchor in ensuring that transitions in technology and processes are smooth, strategically sound, and risk-averse. Let's unlock what makes this role indispensable in the modern IT maze.

What is change management?

Change management represents the artful and strategic orchestration of people, processes, and technology in organizational change management. It's about expertly guiding entities through the transition from their current state to a desired future state. In ITSM, change management plays a key role in minimizing disruptions and maximizing benefits, ensuring smooth implementation of changes for long-lasting organizational benefits.

Who is a change manager?

A Change Manager stands as a pivotal figure in leading change. This key role involves not just implementing changes but doing so with a strategic blend of precision, purpose, and minimal risk. They are the stewards of organizational change, adeptly balancing the drive for transformation with the stability of the organization's IT systems. In the ITIL framework, a Change Manager is responsible for managing the entire lifecycle of all changes. Their primary mission is to facilitate beneficial changes with minimal disruption to business operations. This encompasses a range of critical activities:

Managing the change queue: Efficiently overseeing the flow of changes, in ensuring they are executed effectively and align with organizational goals.

Facilitating Change Advisory Boards ( CABs ): Leading these vital groups to review and make informed decisions on change requests, playing a crucial role in the decision-making process.

Prioritizing changes: Aligning changes with business objectives to ensure they add value, demonstrating strong problem-solving skills in balancing various factors.

Transition management: Ensuring a smooth transition of changes from development to operations, bridging the gap in today's DevOps-driven environment.

Conflict resolution: Utilizing problem-solving skills to address and resolve disputes related to changes, maintaining harmony and alignment with business objectives.

Documentation & reporting: Keeping a detailed record of changes, their impacts, and outcomes is an essential aspect of transparency and accountability in change management.

The Change Manager's role necessitates close collaboration with various departments, from IT to business units, to ensure that changes meet technical requirements and advance business goals. They are instrumental in leading change, marrying agility with risk management to drive the organization forward.

Change manager vs. project manager:

A Change Manager and a Project Manager play distinct yet complementary organizational roles. If the Project Manager's role is to build the ship—planning, executing, and closing projects—the Change Manager's role is to navigate that ship through the complexities of organizational waters.

The Change Manager's focus extends beyond project completion, ensuring that changes are woven seamlessly into the organization's fabric and aligned with long-term business strategies. They are less about the 'what' and 'how' of the projects and more about the 'why' and 'what next' of the changes those projects bring.

Change manager's key responsibilities 

Navigating Requests for Change (RFCs): More than just processing these requests, the Change Manager's role is to align them meticulously with the company's strategic objectives. This involves a sharp understanding of how each RFC can affect the broader picture and a commitment to ensuring that every change serves a purpose and adds value.

Chairing the Change Advisory Board (CAB): This isn't just a meeting—it's a critical forum where potential changes are scrutinized and debated. The Change Manager's role here is to guide these discussions, ensuring every member has the information they need to make informed decisions. This is where potential risks meet possible rewards, and strategic decisions are made.

Conflict resolution: In change management, conflicts are inevitable. The Change Manager is a mediator, resolving disputes and aligning differing viewpoints with the organization's goals. This requires diplomacy, a deep understanding of various perspectives, and finding common ground.

What is the working environment of a change manager?

A Change Manager operates at the intersection of IT and business, ensuring that every change aligns with business goals while maintaining the integrity of IT systems. Daily, they navigate a diverse landscape, interacting with various stakeholders within IT and business units. Their role demands a deep understanding of business needs and goals to prioritize changes effectively.

They collaborate closely with incident managers and problem managers to prioritize and address issues impacting the business. In liaison with business relationship managers, they ensure that IT infrastructure issues are communicated and understood. In the era of DevOps , the Change Manager plays a crucial role in smoothing the transition of services from development to operations, balancing agility with risk management.

The value of a change manager in an organization

A Change Manager is your business's speed regulator and safety net, all rolled into one. They're the ones who ensure that the IT engine runs both fast and failsafe.

Increased speed of releasing changes to production

Contrary to the misconception of being a roadblock, an adept Change Manager accelerates the deployment of changes. They ensure the organization stays agile and responsive by evaluating, prioritizing, and fast-tracking well-documented changes. It's about shifting gears quickly yet smoothly, keeping pace with the business's evolving needs.

Manage organizational risks

A Change Manager's role is pivotal in minimizing potential risks that changes could pose to IT infrastructure and business processes. This involves a sharp eye for detail in assessing each change, anticipating conflicts, and strategically scheduling changes to avert business disruptions. It's a delicate dance of discerning risk, ensuring the safety net is always in place.

Reduced post-release issues

The goal is clear skies post-release, and a Change Manager is instrumental in making this a reality. By ensuring changes are evaluated and scheduled judiciously, the Change Manager significantly reduces post-release incidents. They're the guardians at the release management gate, ensuring that once a change is deployed, it contributes to smooth sailing rather than stormy seas.

Fewer change conflicts, failures, and rollbacks

One of the critical responsibilities of a Change Manager is to prevent the collision of changes. Ensuring that scheduled changes are conflict-free reduces change failures that necessitate rollbacks. It's about plotting a course that avoids the crosswinds of conflicting changes, providing a stable and reliable IT environment.

Clear accountability for change approval and coordination activities

With a Change Manager at the helm, every change that flows through the IT landscape is tracked, coordinated, and managed precisely. They are the lighthouse in the fog of change, offering clear visibility and direction. This consistency in managing changes minimizes risks and amplifies the value delivered to the business.

How do change managers collaborate with other functions?

Change Managers are the foundation of the ITSM ecosystem, ensuring seamless integration and coordination across various functions. They must possess the authority and confidence to both accelerate and pause changes, balancing the need for swift action with thorough risk management.

Accountable for review & approval

In the realm of change management, accountability is key. Change Managers hold the reins for all change reviews and approvals, ensuring a cohesive approach even when tasks are delegated. This centralization provides a single, reliable point of contact for all change-related inquiries and decisions, streamlining the process and maintaining clarity.

Executive sponsorship & authority

A Change Manager's authority extends to making critical decisions, even when that means vetoing requests from higher-ups. This level of control is pivotal for maintaining the integrity of change processes and requires solid backing from executive leadership.

Integration with ITSM

As integral members of the ITSM team, Change Managers work in close concert with incident, problem, and configuration managers. This collaboration ensures that change requests are technically sound and align with broader business objectives and IT strategies.

Dedicated change managers for large projects

A specialized Change Manager may be appointed to oversee multiple related changes for significant projects or programs. Even in these scenarios, adherence to established processes is crucial for maintaining consistency and managing risks across the organization.

Goals for a change manager

Facilitating safe & efficient change

The primary goal of a Change Manager is to enable change that is both safe and efficient. Far from obstructing change, they aim to facilitate it in a manner that upholds the integrity of IT infrastructure while meeting business needs.

Coordinating changes to minimize downtime

Effective change management is essential for minimizing business downtime. By carefully assessing and scheduling changes, a Change Manager ensures minimal disruption to business operations.

Comprehensive understanding of risks, benefits, & dependencies

A Change Manager must have a holistic view of all proposed changes, weighing the benefits against the risks and understanding the interdependencies within the IT infrastructure. This comprehensive approach is crucial for informed decision-making.

Ensuring only approved changes are deployed

Change Managers are the gatekeepers who ensure that only authorized changes are implemented, using discovery tools and other methods to detect and prevent unauthorized alterations to the IT infrastructure.

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Essential skills & qualifications for change managers.

Change Managers are pivotal in guiding organizations through periods of transition, necessitating a unique blend of skills and qualifications to manage the intricacies of change in the IT landscape effectively.

Business acumen: A sharp understanding of the business environment and the ability to align change initiatives with organizational goals.

Change management skills: Proficiency in planning, executing, and overseeing change initiatives, ensuring successful implementation.

Attention to detail: Rigorous scrutiny of every aspect of proposed changes to accurately assess risks and benefits.

Managing ambiguity: Expertise in navigating complex change scenarios and making informed decisions in uncertain conditions.

Evaluating trade-offs: Ability to balance the advantages and disadvantages of implementing changes, recognizing the nuances of each situation.

Risk management: Competency in identifying, assessing, and implementing risk mitigation strategies for changes affecting IT infrastructure and business processes.

Effective communication: Exceptional communication skills are critical, especially in developing a comprehensive communication plan to engage with executives, stakeholders, and business users.

Training & mentoring: Adept at educating and guiding others in change management processes and principles, implementing training programs to foster an informed organizational culture.

Handling stressful situations: Resilience in maintaining composure and effectiveness under pressure, particularly in time-sensitive or critical business situations.

Qualifications

Bachelor's or Master's Degree: A degree, preferably in Business Administration, IT Management, or a related field, providing a foundational understanding of business and technology.

Relevant industry experience: Practical experience in IT service management, project management, or closely related areas.

Understanding of IT infrastructure: Knowledge of contemporary IT practices and systems, is crucial for effective change management.

Certifications

ITIL certification : Validates a comprehensive understanding of ITIL frameworks, essential for effective change management.

Certified Change Management Professional (CCMP): Recognized credential indicating mastery in change management methodologies.

Project Management Professional (PMP): Useful for gaining insights into the broader aspects of project management as they pertain to change initiatives.

Risk management certifications: Such as PMI-RMP, highlighting specialized skills in risk identification and mitigation in the context of change management.

Equipped with these skills, qualifications, and certifications, a Change Manager plays an invaluable role in any organization. They navigate the complexities of transformation with expertise, strategic vision, and unwavering confidence, ensuring the seamless integration of change into the organizational fabric.

Common challenges change managers face

Change Managers operate in a dynamic environment, facing a spectrum of challenges that require a blend of agility, strategic thinking, and resilience. Key challenges and change management mistakes that sometimes occur include:

Balancing urgency & thoroughness: In an era where agility is key, Change Managers must strike a balance between the swift implementation of changes and the need for comprehensive risk management. This involves making quick decisions without compromising on the scrutiny required to manage risks effectively.

Navigating ambiguity: Often, Change Managers encounter situations with unclear risks or conflicting information about the benefits of a change. They must act as decisive arbitrators, using their expertise and intuition to make informed decisions.

Authorizing process exceptions: Especially in emergencies, Change Managers need to assess the risks of deviating from standard processes against the potential impact of waiting. Their ability to make these critical calls can significantly affect business continuity and operational efficiency.

Resisting pressure to bypass procedures: Maintaining the integrity of change management processes often means standing firm against pressure from higher management. Change Managers must uphold procedures to safeguard against poorly managed changes, even in the face of pushback from senior executives.

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Best practices for the high-performing change manager.

To excel in change management, here are some "hacks" and tips for building a successful career path. Think of these as the secret sauce for success in change management. It's about staying ahead of the curve, making informed decisions, and keeping the team and technology in a harmonious balance.

Stay ahead of the curve: Continuously update your knowledge and skills to keep pace with evolving IT trends and methodologies.

Foster strong communication: Develop clear, concise, and persuasive communication skills to effectively convey the importance of adhering to change management processes and the rationale behind decisions.

Build robust networks: Cultivate strong relationships across various departments to facilitate smoother change implementation and foster collaboration.

Embrace flexibility: Be prepared to adapt your strategies in response to changing organizational needs or unexpected challenges.

Promote a culture of continuous learning: Encourage and facilitate ongoing education and training within your team to ensure everyone is aligned with the latest best practices in change management.

Measuring the performance & success of a change manage

To gauge the effectiveness of a Change Manager, consider these key metrics:

Change management process cycle time: Assess the duration from the initiation of a change request to its conclusion, aiming for a balance between speed and comprehensive risk management.

Post-release incidents: Monitor incidents caused by changes. A well-managed change process should minimize these occurrences.

Adherence to change management processes: Review the proportion of changes that follow standard procedures versus those that resort to emergency measures. A high rate of emergency changes might indicate underlying issues in the change management approach.

What tools does a change manager use?

Having the right set of tools, including a solid change management software platform, is crucial in change management.

ITSM system: Freshservice offers advanced change management tools within its ITSM system , enabling Change Managers to track and manage changes efficiently.

Scheduling tools: Automate and schedule changes for seamless integration into production systems.

Configuration Management Database ( CMDB ): Utilize Freshservice's CMDB for in-depth analysis and mapping of IT asset dependencies, crucial for risk analysis and predicting the impacts of changes.

Risk assessment tools: Access a variety of tools within Freshservice for thorough risk assessment, ensuring informed decision-making for incident management .

Project management integration: Manage large-scale changes and releases effectively with project management tools integrated into the Freshservice platform.

Decision support tools: Leverage decision matrices and other tools within Freshservice to navigate complex change scenarios and make well-informed decisions.

Maximizing Automation & AI

Automation and artificial intelligence (AI) are becoming integral to change management. These technologies offer new ways to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of change processes, reshaping the role of Change Managers. They now have tools at their disposal to automate routine tasks, analyze vast amounts of data for better decision-making, and predict outcomes of changes with greater accuracy. This shift allows Change Managers to focus more on strategic planning and less on administrative tasks, ultimately driving more value for the organization.

How to become a change manager

For those aspiring to become Change Managers, here’s a straightforward path to follow:

Gain relevant education: Typically, a degree in IT, business, or related fields.

Acquire practical experience: Work in roles related to ITSM, project management, or operational roles in IT.

Develop essential skills: Sharpen your skills in areas like risk assessment, communication, and decision-making.

Earn relevant certifications: Consider certifications like ITIL, PMP, or CCMP to validate your expertise.

Cultivate leadership qualities: Develop the ability to lead teams and manage complex projects.

What are the salary expectations for a change manager?

The salary for a Change Manager can vary widely based on factors like location, experience, and the size of the organization. Generally, salaries can range from $82,000 to $129,000 . These figures are indicative and can vary significantly based on specific circumstances.

Scaling the change management function

Expanding the change management function within an organization is a crucial step in adapting to growth and ensuring effective management of change at all levels. It involves scaling the role of the Change Manager and developing a comprehensive framework that supports the entire change process.

Starting with part-time responsibility

In smaller organizations, having a dedicated Change Manager may be challenging. In such cases, the responsibilities of change management can be vested in a single individual who understands the nuances of the organization's IT infrastructure and business goals. This individual should ideally have a balanced role, such as incident or problem management , to avoid biases in prioritizing changes.

Transitioning to a full-time role

As the organization grows, appointing a dedicated, full-time Change Manager becomes vital. This individual should be responsible for overseeing all IT-related changes in the business. However, care must be taken to avoid bottlenecks where the Change Manager becomes overwhelmed by the volume of changes. Delegating assessments to subject matter experts within the IT department can alleviate this risk.

Establishing a small team

In medium-sized enterprises, forming a small change management team led by a Change Manager can be more effective. This team can operate a Change Advisory Board (CAB) that regularly reviews and prioritizes changes. The Change Manager should ensure that only changes with significant risks or benefits are brought to the CAB, handling smaller, low-risk changes independently.

Coordinating distributed change management in larger organizations

For larger organizations, a distributed change-management function can be the most effective. This involves decentralizing the responsibility for assessing, prioritizing, and approving changes, thus reducing the burden on any single individual. In this model, different CABs can be convened for different types of changes, each including members with relevant expertise.

Training & consistency

Regardless of the organization's size, providing specific training for those involved in the change management process is crucial. This ensures that everyone understands their role and responsibilities and that changes are assessed and implemented consistently. Establishing consistent processes and tools for managing change is also vital. Significant changes require comprehensive assessment and risk management, while minor changes may be managed more quickly. Emergency changes, although requiring swift action, must still undergo risk assessment and proper approval.

What to do if your company lacks a change manager or change management function

In organizations without a dedicated Change Manager or function, mitigating risks associated with unmanaged changes is crucial. Some steps include:

Assigning responsibility: Identify a team or individual to take on change management responsibilities, even if not as their primary role.

Implementing standard processes: Develop and enforce basic change management processes to ensure some level of control and consistency.

Utilizing technology: Leverage ITSM software like Freshservice to automate and manage change processes effectively.

Regular training: Conduct training sessions for staff involved in changes to understand the importance of following established procedures.

Implementing even a basic level of change management can significantly reduce the risks of uncoordinated and unauthorized changes, thereby maintaining the stability and integrity of IT systems.

Frequently asked questions

What is the difference between a project manager and a change manager.

The primary distinction lies in their focus areas. A project manager is responsible for executing specific projects, ensuring they are completed on time, within budget, and to the project's specifications. Their role is often tactical, concentrating on specific goals and deliverables. On the other hand, a change manager deals with the broader impact of changes within an organization. This role is more strategic, focusing on preparing, supporting, and helping individuals, teams, and the organization adapt to change. While project managers handle the specifics, change managers navigate the transitional process.

What does it take to be a change manager?

Being a Change Manager requires a blend of various skills and qualities. You need strong analytical skills to assess the risks and impacts of changes, coupled with excellent communication abilities to articulate and manage the repercussions of these changes effectively. Leadership qualities are crucial to guiding and directing change processes, and adaptability is critical to handling various situations and challenges. A deep understanding of change management principles and methodologies and relevant experience in IT or related fields are essential to comprehend the technical aspects of the changes being implemented.

What is a change manager in HR?

In Human Resources, a Change Manager focuses on managing the human side of change. This role involves guiding organizational development, encompassing changes in company culture, structure, and internal processes. A significant part of their job is ensuring employee engagement, ensuring changes are communicated effectively, and staff are supported throughout the transition. They also play a role in training and development, introducing programs to upskill employees and align their skills with the organization's evolving needs.

What is the typical career path for a change manager?

The typical career path for a Change Manager often starts with roles that provide a foundational understanding of business operations, project management, or IT services. Professionals might begin in positions such as Business Analyst, Project Coordinator, or IT Specialist, gaining essential insights into how changes impact an organization. Over time, they may take on more responsibilities related to change management, such as leading smaller change initiatives or assisting senior change managers. With experience, they can progress to a full-fledged Change Manager role, potentially moving up to senior management positions where they can strategize and oversee change management at an organizational level. Continuous learning and professional development, including earning relevant certifications, are crucial to advancing this career path.

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06 Steps to Create Risk Register for Change Management

If you are a manager or professional leading change management efforts, it’s essential that you contain risks throughout the process.

Change management is a difficult task, involving a multitude of stakeholders, multiple timelines and unexpected surprises and risks.

A key part of managing risk of change is to create risk register for entire change management project. This tool provides key insights into how potential risks will impact different stages of the process. By creating an effective risk register, managers and professionals can identify areas where there is uncertainty and ensure they have plans in place to manage them correctly.

In this blog post, we’ll explore six steps to create your own risk register for change management by discovering what they are and understanding each step’s importance in curating the most efficient and competent system of protection possible.

Ready to learn more?

Change Management Risk

Change Management risk is any risk that could potentially threaten the success of a change management project. This risk can originate from external sources such as competition, regulation, or the industry environment, or from internal sources such as personnel, organizational structure and process changes, stakeholder involvement and technology changes.

Addressing the change management risk involves more than just risk identification and risk assessment. It also entails risk monitoring, risk tracking, risk management, risk response planning, risk communication and risk mitigation. Risk identification is the process of recognizing or identifying risks that might have an impact on a given change management project.

Once risk has been identified it is necessary to understand the risk in more detail. This involves risk assessment which is the process of assessing risk in terms of its probability, impact and magnitude. Risk probability refers to the likelihood that a risk will occur, and risk impact measures the potential effects of a risk.

What is Risk Register ?

Risk register is a document that captures, identifies, assesses and tracks risk as part of the risk management process. It is a tool used for risk identification and risk assessment. The risk register can be used to identify, analyze and communicate risk information related to a particular project or initiative in an organized manner.

Purpose of Risk Register

You need a risk register because, as projects get larger, longer, and more complex, it becomes increasingly difficult to monitor every area. Without a risk register, you’re flying blind and could easily be derailed by unexpected challenges. A risk register is an invaluable tool that can help to keep track of all the risks associated with a project and ensure that those risks are managed effectively. If risks aren’t tracked in a central location and reviewed regularly, something may be missed or forgotten

Following are the 06 steps to create risk register for change management:

Step 1: Risk Description

The first step is to identify potential risk and describe them. There are different types of risk, like risk from the outside and risk from the inside. You need to track all the risks for your project so that you can be prepared for them if they happen. For this purpose all team members need to sit together and brainstorm to identify potential risks. Its also good to invite external stakeholders to have clear identification and description of risk of a change initiative.

Step 2: Risk Assessment

Risk assessment is the process of determining the probability and impact of risk. Change management risk assessment involves the identification and evaluation of potential risk factors to change initiative as well as the determination of risk levels for each risk factor. It enables organizations to identify which risks are most likely to occur and how they can be managed or mitigated.

Risks can be categorised as low risk, medium risk, and high risk. Low risk refers to risks that have a low probability of occurrence and a low impact on the project or change initiative if they do occur. Examples of low risk could include minor delays or cost overruns or minor changes in scope of the project.

High risk refers to risks that have a high probability of occurrence and can have a significant impact on the project or change initiative if they do occur. Examples of high risk could include major delays, which could delay the timeline of the project, or cost overruns and scope changes, which could increase costs exponentially.

Step 3: Mitigating Actions

The risk register can be used to capture mitigating actions that can be taken to reduce risk. This involves recording the potential risk responses and strategies that can be implemented to address risk and reduce its impact.

Risk mitigation plans must be documented as part of the risk register in order to serve as a roadmap. This plan should include risk response strategies that can be implemented to address risk and reduce its impact. The risk mitigation plan should focus on risk probability, risk impact, risk responses and risk strategies.

Step 4: Owner. (Delegation)

Once risk has been identified and risk assessment is complete, risk needs to be assigned to an owner for risk management. The risk register should include the name of the risk owner, who is responsible for monitoring and managing risk throughout the course of the project.

Risk owners can be single persons or a group of people who are responsible for risk management throughout the life cycle of a change management. Risk owners are usually experienced in risk management, with the knowledge and expertise to identify risk, assess risk, and develop strategies for risk mitigation.

The risk owner should be given responsibility over risk monitoring, risk assessment, risk response strategies, and risk mitigation. Risk owners need to ensure that all potential risks are identified and tracked in the risk register in a timely manner, and they must monitor risk throughout the life cycle of a change management.

Step 5: Target Date

The risk register should include a target date for when risk mitigating actions must be taken. This is an essential part of risk management, as it ensures that risk factors are being monitored continuously and acted on in a timely manner. Establishing a target date for risk helps to prevent risk from having an adverse effect on the project or change initiative.

It is essential to set a realistic and achievable risk mitigation target date, which should be based on the risk assessment that has been conducted. This risk mitigation target date needs to be specific and measurable, allowing risk owners to monitor risk progress throughout the life cycle of the change management initiative.

6. Status of Completion

The risk register should also track the status of risk mitigation activities. This includes tracking when risk mitigation actions are completed, as well as any further risk mitigation activities that may be required. It is important to regularly review risk mitigation plans and update the risk register accordingly.

Risk mitigation completion status can be tracked in different ways, including use of risk scoring models, risk monitoring and reporting activities, risk analysis techniques and risk management processes. Risk scoring models quantify risk levels by assigning numerical risk scores to risk events based on their risk probability and risk impact.

Benefits of Risk Register for Change Management

Following are some key benefits of risk management:

Prevents adverse effects on project or change initiative

Risk mitigation is essential to prevent adverse effects on a project or change initiative. If risk analysis is not conducted properly and risk factors are not monitored and addressed promptly, risk can result in delays, cost overruns, scope changes and other issues that can have a major impact on the success of the project.

Ensures timely identification and mitigation of risk factors

The risk register for change management is an essential risk management tool that ensures timely identification and mitigation of risk factors. By monitoring risk throughout the life cycle of a project or change initiative, risk owners can be alerted to potential issues quickly, allowing them to assess risk and respond in a timely manner.

Helps to track progress of risk mitigation activities

The risk register for change management not only helps to identify risk factors, but also to track the progress of risk mitigation activities. By monitoring risk throughout the life cycle of a project or change initiative, risk owners can measure and track risk progress, allowing them to understand how effective their risk mitigation strategies have been.

Keeps all stakeholders informed about risk status

Risk owners should ensure that all risk management activities, including risk mitigation strategies, risk assessment results and risk mitigation completion status, are communicated to all stakeholders in a timely manner. Regular reporting and updates on risk can help stakeholders to monitor risk progress and stay informed about the risk status of the project or change initiative.

Final Words

A risk register is a key risk management tool that helps to identify risk factors, track the progress of risk mitigation activities and keep all stakeholders informed about risk status. By monitoring risk throughout the life cycle of a project or change initiative, risk owners can prevent adverse effects on the project and ensure timely identification and mitigation of risk factors.

About The Author

Tahir Abbas

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A Comprehensive Guide to Change Management for Projects

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Change is the only constant in the world of project management. In today’s fast-paced business environment, projects constantly evolve, and project managers must adapt to these changes to ensure successful outcomes. This is where change management comes into play. This comprehensive guide will delve into what change management is, its role and benefits, the implementation steps, techniques, best practices, and the future of change management.

What is Change Management in Project Management?

Change management in project management refers to the structured approach and processes used to ensure that changes to a project’s scope, objectives, timeline, or deliverables are effectively managed. It involves preparing and supporting individuals, teams, and organizations to embrace and adapt to changes initiated within a project.

Project managers encounter various changes throughout the project lifecycle, whether it’s a change in project requirements, technology, resources, or market conditions. These changes can lead to confusion, resistance, and project failure without proper change management.

The Role and Benefits of Change Management

Why change management matters in project management.

Change management is vital in project management for several reasons. Firstly, it helps project managers anticipate and address potential challenges associated with changes. Secondly, it ensures that stakeholders are well-informed and engaged in the change process, reducing resistance, and increasing buy-in. Lastly, effective change management enhances the overall success rate of projects.

Benefits of Implementing Change Management

Implementing change management offers a multitude of benefits, including:

1) Reduced Resistance

One of the primary benefits of change management is reducing resistance to change within an organization. Resistance to change is a natural human reaction. People often feel threatened or uncertain when faced with changes in their work environment. However, change management strategies are designed to address and alleviate this resistance.

• Understanding the Reasons Behind Change: Change management ensures that employees understand the reasons behind the proposed changes. When individuals comprehend the purpose and objectives of the change, they are more likely to embrace it. It transforms resistance into curiosity and a desire to learn.
• Involvement in Decision-Making: Change management encourages employee involvement in the decision-making process. Employees feel valued and empowered when they have a say in the changes that affect them. Their perspectives are considered, making them more willing to support and adapt to the changes.
• Building Trust: Effective change management builds trust between employees and leadership. When employees see that their concerns are acknowledged and addressed, they are more likely to trust the decisions made by the organization’s leaders. Trust is a cornerstone for successful change adoption.

2) Improved Communication

Communication plays a pivotal role in change management. Open and transparent communication ensures that everyone affected by the change is well-informed, reducing confusion and uncertainty.

• Clarity in Messaging: Change management ensures that messages related to the change are clear and consistent. Ambiguity and misinformation can lead to confusion and resistance. Clear communication helps dispel doubts.
• Stakeholder Alignment: Change management ensures that all stakeholders, including employees, suppliers, and customers, are aligned with the project’s goals. When everyone understands the objectives and benefits of the change, they are more likely to support it.
• Timely Updates: Effective change management provides a structured approach to communication. It ensures that updates and information are disseminated promptly, keeping everyone in the loop throughout the change process.
• Feedback Mechanisms: Change management establishes feedback mechanisms, allowing employees to express their concerns and suggestions. This two-way communication fosters a sense of involvement and helps address any issues.

3) Enhanced Productivity

Change management contributes to enhanced productivity within an organization. When employees adapt to changes quickly and effectively, it minimizes disruptions and improves productivity.

• Minimized Downtime: Properly managed change minimizes the downtime associated with adapting to new processes or systems. Employees can transition smoothly, with minimal disruptions to their daily tasks.
• Skill Development: Change management often includes training and education components. As employees acquire new skills and knowledge, they become more efficient, increasing productivity.
• Motivated Workforce: When employees feel engaged in the change process and understand the positive impact of their efforts, they are more motivated to perform well. This motivation can result in higher productivity levels.
• Streamlined Processes: Change management may involve process improvements. Streamlined and optimized processes can increase efficiency and reduce waste, further enhancing productivity.

4) Risk Mitigation

Change within a project can introduce various risks and challenges. Change management helps organizations identify and mitigate these potential risks , reducing the likelihood of project delays or failures.

• Risk Identification: Change management involves thoroughly analyzing the potential risks associated with the change. This proactive approach helps organizations anticipate issues before they escalate.
• Risk Mitigation Strategies: Once risks are identified, change management strategies are developed to address them. This may involve contingency plans, alternative approaches, or additional resources to mitigate potential setbacks.
• Contingency Planning: Effective change management includes contingency planning for potential issues during the change process. This preparedness ensures that the project can continue despite challenges.
• Adaptive Resourcing: Change management may involve reallocation of resources to address risks. If a particular aspect of the change process encounters difficulties, resources can be redirected to overcome obstacles.

5) Higher ROI

Ultimately, the goal of any project is to achieve its intended objectives efficiently and effectively. Change management significantly increases the likelihood of success, leading to a higher return on investment (ROI).

• Project Success: Change management ensures that the project aligns with the organization’s strategic goals and objectives. It enhances the chances of achieving the desired outcomes and benefits.
• Reduced Project Failures: Projects without proper change management are more prone to failure due to resistance, miscommunication, and inadequate planning. Effective change management reduces the risk of project failure.
• Optimized Resource utilization: Change management helps organizations maximize their resources. Resources are utilized effectively by ensuring that employees are engaged, processes are efficient, and risks are minimized.
• Long-Term Value: The benefits of change management extend beyond the project’s completion. A well-implemented change management process creates a culture of adaptability, ensuring the organization thrives in a dynamic business environment.

Implementing Change Management: A Step-by-Step Guide

Step 1: identifying the need for change.

The first step in change management is recognizing the need for change. Project managers should assess the current situation, identify pain points, and determine the desired future state.

Step 2: Creating a Change Management Team

A dedicated change management team should be established, consisting of individuals with expertise in change management, communication, and stakeholder engagement.

Step 3: Developing a Change Management Plan

A detailed change management plan should be created, outlining the scope of the change, objectives, timelines, and key stakeholders. This plan serves as a roadmap for the change process.

Step 4: Communicating the Change

Effective communication is crucial. Project managers should communicate the reasons for the change, its impact, and the benefits it will bring. This should be an ongoing process throughout the project.

Step 5: Training and Education

Providing employees with the necessary training and education is essential to ensure they have the skills and knowledge to adapt to the changes.

Step 6: Implementing and Managing the Change

The change is implemented according to the plan, with the change management team monitoring progress and addressing any issues.

Step 7: Monitoring and Measuring Change Progress

Key performance indicators (KPIs) should be established to measure the success of the change. Regularly monitoring progress helps identify areas that need adjustment.

Step 8: Sustaining the Change

Once the change is implemented, efforts must be made to sustain it. This involves embedding the change into the organization’s culture and processes.

Techniques for Effective Change Management

Change management can be approached using various techniques and models. Here are some popular ones:

Kotter’s 8-Step Change Model

This model, developed by John Kotter, provides a structured approach to change management. It includes steps such as creating a sense of urgency, building a guiding coalition, and anchoring changes in the corporate culture.

ADKAR Model

The ADKAR model, which stands for Awareness, Desire, Knowledge, Ability, and Reinforcement, focuses on the individual’s journey through change. It helps identify areas where individuals may struggle and provides targeted interventions.

Lewin’s Change Management Model

Kurt Lewin’s model is often represented as a three-step process: unfreezing, changing, and refreezing. It emphasizes the importance of preparing people for change, implementing it, and stabilizing it.

Prosci’s Change Management Process

Prosci’s approach is research-based and includes three phases: preparing for change, managing change, and reinforcing change. It emphasizes the importance of managing the “people” side of change.

Best Practices in Change Management

Engaging stakeholders.

Engaging stakeholders throughout the change process is crucial. This involves involving them in decision-making, soliciting feedback, and addressing their concerns.

Managing Resistance to Change

Resistance to change is natural, but it can be managed. Effective communication, empathy, and involving employees in the change process can help mitigate resistance.

Creating a Culture of Change

Organizations that foster a culture of change are better equipped to adapt to new challenges. Encouraging innovation, learning, and flexibility can contribute to a more adaptable culture.

Leveraging Technology for Change

Technology can be a valuable tool in change management. From communication platforms to project management software, technology can streamline the change process and enhance collaboration.

The Future of Change Management

The evolution of change management.

Change management is not static. It has evolved over the years to meet the demands of the ever-changing business landscape. In the future, we can expect to see more agile and data-driven approaches to change management.

Trends Shaping the Future of Change Management

Several trends are shaping the future of change management, including:

• Digital Transformation: The increasing reliance on technology and data is changing how organizations approach change.
• Remote Work: The rise of remote work has necessitated new approaches to change management, as teams are geographically dispersed.
• Agile Methodologies: Agile project management methodologies are becoming more popular, requiring agile change management practices to match.

Change management is a critical component of successful project management. By understanding the role and benefits of change management, following a structured implementation process, utilizing effective techniques, and embracing best practices, project managers can navigate the ever-changing landscape of project requirements and ensure project success. The future of change management promises to be dynamic and responsive to the evolving needs of organizations, making it an essential skill for project managers in the years to come.

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What is Change Manager?: Understand the Roles and Responsibilities

This blog talks about how Change Managers work in organisational dynamics. It can help you explore the essential roles and responsibilities of a Change Manager and how they facilitate smooth transitions within organisations. Let's dive in to discover how their strategic vision drives successful organisational change.

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At the heart of ever-evolving business landscape adaptation lies the role of Change Managers. These experts are mostly tasked with orchestrating and navigating organisational transformations. They are essential to guiding businesses through change. Such managers are skilled at handling the human side of transformation as well as the technical parts of change management.  

Change Managers use several skills to negotiate the complexity of change management. This blog will examine their capacity for strategic vision, analysis, and leadership. Let's dive in to get a detailed overview of their roles and responsibilities. 

Table of Contents  

1) What is change management? 

2) Who is a Change Manager? 

3) Roles of a Change Manager 

4) Key responsibilities of a Change Manager 

5) Skills for Change Managers 

6) Change Manager vs. Project Manager 

7) Conclusion 

What is change management?  

Change management is all about a methodical process to handle the human aspect of change within businesses. In order to accomplish desired objectives, it entails planning, implementing, and monitoring changes to systems, processes, or structures. The goal of change management is to facilitate smooth transitions and ensure that desired objectives are achieved efficiently.  

Who is a Change Manager?  

 Within an organisation, a Change Manager is in charge of organising and directing change projects. As change agents, they ensure that organisational goals are achieved. Besides these duties, these experts mentor stakeholders through the change process. 

Roles of a Change Manager  

Strategic vision, competent leadership, and efficient communication are necessary for navigating organisational transformation. Change Managers greatly assist teams as they navigate the intricacies of change efforts. Let's delve into the multifaceted roles of these professionals: 

1) Change Manager in a leadership role  

Change Managers encourage teams to accept new projects and cultivate an adaptable culture by acting as change agents. They lead with vision, giving stakeholders the courage and inspiration to push for revolutionary change while navigating adversity. 

2) Change Manager in an analytical role  

Making decisions based on facts is crucial when it comes to change management. Change Managers examine how suggested changes can affect different parts of the company and carefully weigh their advantages and disadvantages. They guarantee that change activities are strategically aligned with corporate objectives by conducting comprehensive studies. 

3) Change Manager in a coaching role  

Change Managers act as coaches, guiding individuals and teams through the change process with empathy and support. They provide mentorship, encouragement, and resources. Such contributions help stakeholders navigate challenges, build resilience, and embrace change as an opportunity for growth. 

4) Change Manager in a communication management role  

Change Managers oversee communication channels, ensuring that stakeholders are informed about changes and engaged throughout the process. They craft clear and compelling messages, foster open dialogue, and address concerns proactively, fostering a culture of transparency and collaboration. 

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Key responsibilities of a Change Manager  

Change Managers bear important obligations to guarantee the successful execution of change initiatives. Their function involves everything from assessing change requests to settling disputes and directing decision-making. Let's examine some of their principal duties: 

1) Navigating Requests for Change (RFCs)  

Change Managers serve as gatekeepers for change requests, evaluating each request to assess its impact, feasibility, and alignment with organisational objectives. By prioritising change requests and allocating resources effectively, they ensure that changes are implemented in a timely and strategic manner, driving organisational success. 

2) Conflict resolution  

Change initiatives often encounter resistance and conflicting viewpoints. Change Managers play a crucial role in resolving conflicts and addressing resistance to change through effective communication and stakeholder engagement. By fostering open dialogue, building consensus, and addressing concerns empathetically, they mitigate resistance and pave the way for smooth change adoption. 

3) Chairing the Change Advisory Board (CAB)  

The Change Advisory Board (CAB) serves as the governing body responsible for reviewing and approving change requests. Change Managers chair CAB meetings, facilitating discussions among key stakeholders to assess the impact and risks associated with proposed changes. By ensuring that changes are vetted and approved in a coordinated manner, they maintain governance and control over the change process. 

Skills for Change Managers  

To properly negotiate the complexity of organisational change, Change Managers must have a handful of skills. Their skills are crucial for spearheading change projects that are successful, from comprehending company dynamics to skillfully managing risks and interacting with stakeholders. Let's explore the key competencies needed by these managers:  

1) Business acumen  

A thorough awareness of organisational dynamics, market trends, and business procedures is necessary for Change Managers. With this skill, they can foresee effects on the company, match change activities with strategic goals, and spot improvement areas. 

2) Change management skills  

Change Managers must be proficient in change management approaches, instruments, and procedures. They should be experienced in leading organisations through all phases of change, from preparation and execution to assessment and monitoring. They must limit disruptions and guarantee good results by implementing best practices in change management. 

3) Attention to detail  

Change initiatives include multiple moving elements and possible hazards. Change Managers, thus, must be extremely detail-oriented in order to spot any problems early on. Through methodical planning and implementation of change projects, they can limit risks and optimise outcomes. 

4) Effective communication  

Strong communication skills are paramount for Change Managers to convey information, engage stakeholders, and build consensus. They must be adept at articulating the rationale behind change initiatives, addressing concerns, and fostering open dialogue throughout the change process. Effective communication fosters trust, alignment, and collaboration among stakeholders. 

5) Risk management  

Change initiatives inherently involve risks, ranging from resistance to technical challenges. Change Managers must possess strong risk management skills to assess, mitigate, and monitor risks. By identifying potential obstacles and developing contingency plans, they ensure that change initiatives proceed smoothly and achieve desired outcomes. 

6) Handling stressful situations  

Navigating organisational change can be inherently stressful, requiring resilience and composure from Change Managers. They must remain calm under pressure, adapt to changing circumstances, and lead teams through uncertainty with confidence. By maintaining a positive outlook and problem-solving mindset, they inspire confidence and instil trust in stakeholders. 

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Change Manager vs. Project Manager  

Change Managers and Project Managers play vital roles in organisational initiatives, yet their roles and responsibilities vary significantly. Let's explore their differences in the following points: 

a) Focus of responsibility: Change Managers prioritise managing the human aspects of change, including stakeholder engagement, communication, and adoption. But Project Managers primarily focus on managing project scope, schedules, and budgets to ensure timely delivery of project objectives. 

b) Nature of work: Change Managers facilitate organisational change by guiding individuals and teams through transitions, addressing resistance, and fostering a culture conducive to change. In contrast, Project Managers look after the execution of specific projects, coordinating resources, tasks, and timelines to achieve project goals within defined constraints. 

c) Outcome orientation: Change Managers are concerned with the successful adoption and integration of change initiatives into organisational culture. Project Managers, on the other hand, are outcome-oriented, striving to deliver project objectives on time, within budget, and according to specifications. 

d) Skill set: Change Managers require strong interpersonal skills and communication abilities to navigate the complexities of human behaviour. On the contrary, Project Managers need technical expertise, project management skills, and proficiency in tools and methodologies to manage project execution efficiently. 

e) Measurement of success: Change Managers gauge success based on the degree of stakeholder buy-in, adoption rates, and the organisation's ability to sustain change over time. Meanwhile, project managers measure success by project deliverables that meet quality standards, adhere to schedules and budgets, and achieve predefined objectives. 

Conclusion  

In conclusion, Change Managers play a critical role in driving successful change initiatives within organisations. By understanding their roles, responsibilities, and key skills, these experts can effectively lead change efforts and contribute to organisational growth and success in today's rapidly evolving business landscape. 

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Frequently Asked Questions

Change Managers possess transferable skills that make them suitable for various roles, such as project manager, organisational development consultant, or business analyst. Their expertise in driving change and managing stakeholders is valuable across industries. 

Becoming a Change Manager offers the opportunity to drive transformational change, influence organisational strategy, and make a meaningful impact on business outcomes. It combines leadership, strategic thinking, and communication skills, making it a rewarding and fulfilling career choice for those passionate about driving positive change. 

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The Knowledge Academy’s Knowledge Pass , a prepaid voucher, adds another layer of flexibility, allowing course bookings over a 12-month period. Join us on a journey where education knows no bounds. 

The Knowledge Academy offers various Change Management Courses , including Change Management Practitioner Training, Change Management Foundation Training, and Risk Management for Change Training. These courses cater to different skill levels, providing comprehensive insights into Digital Project Management .   

Our Project Management Blogs cover a range of topics related to Change Management, offering valuable resources, best practices, and industry insights. Whether you are a beginner or looking to advance your Project Management skills, The Knowledge Academy's diverse courses and informative blogs have got you covered. 

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Explore the Levels of Change Management

The Costs and Risks of Poorly Managed Change

Tim Creasey

Updated: March 2, 2024

Published: January 19, 2022

When the people side of change is ignored or poorly managed, the project and the organization take on additional costs and risks. When you consider it from this perspective, effective change management is a cost avoidance technique, risk mitigation tactic, and justifiable investment . Here's an overview of common costs and risks, and how to position change management to clearly communicate and share its benefits.

Consequences of Poor Change Management

It's likely that we have all experienced a poorly managed organizational change at some point, either as an offender or victim. We know from experience that when this happens, the individual changes that culminate in organizational change do not take place. We know that when the "people side of change" is mismanaged, projects don't realize the results and outcomes desired. We know that we have a lower likelihood of meeting objectives, finishing on time, and finishing on budget . And we know that speed of adoption will be slower, ultimate utilization will be lower, and proficiency will be lacking—all dragging down expected returns. 

Ignoring or mismanaging change manifests as costs and risks that play out on both the project level and organizational level. While some of these costs and risks may seem soft, many are quantifiable and can have a significant impact on financial performance for the project and the organization as a whole. 

Project-level costs and risks of mismanaged change

Project-level impacts relate directly to the specific project or initiative forgoing change management. These projects can impact tools, technologies, processes, reporting structures and job roles. They can result from strategic planning, internal stimuli such as performance issues, external stimuli such as regulation or competitive threats, or demands by customers and suppliers. The initiatives may be formalized as projects with project managers, budgets, schedules, etc., or they may be informal in nature but still impact how people do their jobs. 

While these projects can take on a number of different forms, the fact remains that ignoring or mismanaging the people side of change has real consequences for project performance:

• Project delays
• Missed milestones
• Budget overruns
• Rework required on design
• Loss of work by project team
• Resistance 
• Project put on hold
• Resources not made available
• Obstacles appear unexpectedly
• Project fails to deliver results
• Project is fully abandoned

When we apply change management effectively , we can prevent or avoid costs and mitigate risks tied to how individual employees adopt and utilize a change.

Organization-level costs and risks of mismanaged change

The organizational level is a step above the project-level impacts. These costs and risks are felt not only by the project team, but by the organization as a whole. Many of these impacts extend well beyond the lifecycle of a given project. When valuable employees leave the organization, the costs are extreme. A legacy of failed change presents a significant and ever-present backdrop that all future changes will encounter.

The organizational costs and risks of poorly managing change include:

• Productivity plunges (deep and sustained)
• Loss of valued employees
• Reduced quality of work
• Impact on customers
• Impact on suppliers
• Decline in morale
• Legacy of failed change
• Stress, confusion and fatigue
• Change saturation

Applying change management effectively on a particular project or initiative allows you to avoid organizational costs and risks that last well beyond the life of the project.

Costs and risks of failing to deliver results and outcomes

There is one final dimension of costs and risks to consider, beyond the project and organizational impacts. When we try to introduce a change without using effective change management, we are much less likely to implement the change and fully realize the expected results and outcomes. This final dimension provides answers to the question: What if the change is not fully implemented?

If the change does not deliver the results and outcomes—in large part because we ignored the people side of change —there are additional costs and risks.

Costs if the change is not fully implemented:

• Lost investment made in the project
• Lost opportunity to have invested in other projects

Risks if the change is not fully implemented:

• Expenses not reduced
• Efficiencies not gained
• Revenue not increased
• Market share not captured
• Waste not reduced
• Regulations not met

Change Risks and Change Management

Discussing the costs and risks of poorly managed change is yet another way to make the case for change management . Positioning change management as a cost avoidance technique or a risk mitigation tactic can be an effective approach for communicating change management's value or to get support for the resources you need for managing the people side of change.

Tim Creasey is Prosci’s Chief Innovation Officer and a globally recognized leader in Change Management. Their work forms the basis of the world's largest body of knowledge on managing the people side of change to deliver organizational results.

See all posts from Tim Creasey

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What is it change management.

Change management—also known as change enablement—is an IT practice designed to minimize disruptions to IT services while making changes to critical systems and services. 

A change is adding, modifying, or removing anything that could have a direct or indirect effect on services.

Change management practices are designed to reduce incidents and meet regulatory standards. The practices ensure efficient and prompt handling of changes to IT infrastructure and code. Whether you’re rolling out new services, managing existing ones, or resolving problems in code, modern change management approaches break down silos, provide context and transparency, avoid bottlenecks, and minimize risk. 

Risk management is a related ITIL 4 practice , followed “to ensure the organization understands and effectively handles risks.” Both change and risk management require tracking and linking changes to provide an auditable record. The ability to draw on data about previous changes and their success rates enables organizations to adapt their practices in a manner that smartly balances risk and speed. 

Data-informed, adaptive practices strive for efficiency, in contrast with traditional change management, that can often be unnecessarily slow, process-heavy, and overburdened. Because change management deals with challenges around risk and compliance, auditability, and cross-team coordination it too often becomes complex, bureaucratic, and painful. 

It doesn’t have to be this way though. Think of change management as “eat your vegetables”of ITSM -- not always appetizing, but critically important. With the right practices and culture, change management can result in fewer incidents, less stress on your teams, and more time spent delivering value to customers.

Defining change management

When some of us think of change management, our definition involves every aspect of change—from technology, people, and process to the impact on customers and systems. To provide clarity within the context of ITSM,   ITIL 4  has drawn a distinction between IT change management and organizational change management practices.   

• Organizational change management is the “practice of ensuring that changes in an organization are smoothly and successfully implemented and that lasting benefits are achieved by managing the human aspects of the changes.” 

ITIL 4 then redefined their former change management process as the “change control” practice.

• The change control practice ensures “that risks are properly assessed, authorizing changes to proceed and managing a change schedule in order to maximize the number of successful service and product changes.” 

This new name choice stoked controversy, with many IT teams rejecting the association with “control”. To some, it’s a toxic word that evokes the bureaucracy, bottlenecks, and unnecessary steps that traditional change management has become infamous for creating.  

Axelos listened to the feedback and responded. “Following the release of ITIL 4 Foundation, we have heard from several people around the world that “the practice was being misinterpreted or misunderstood as focused on ‘controlling changes’ or ‘controlling teams’, rather than ‘controlling the rate of changes’”

ITIL ultimately switched to calling the practice “change enablement.” The new name connotes a practice that helps teams, providing them with the ability--and freedom-- to move changes forward.

At the end of the day, we don’t think the term you use is especially important. (In this article, and at Atlassian, we refer to it as change management.)  What does matter is your approach. Start with healthy teams and the right culture, and your organization is on the right track to create an effective change management practice. 

The relationship between change management and release management

Release management is another practice that’s important in the change management conversation. According to ITIL 4, the purpose of “release management…is to make new and changed services and features available for use.” Releases may include everything from changes in software functionality to documentation and training updates. 

Historically, release management has bundled changes together, presenting them to customers as a package. Traditional release management upholds rigid project management standards and can create friction in shipping valuable updates to customers, leading to frustration among teams that adhere to Agile principles. 

We can reimagine release management for the DevOps context. Shifting away from its traditional project management function, release management should become about integration and automation. It starts by bringing code pipelines into a secure system that incorporates automated review where possible and provides tracking and oversight. This can break down the siloed approaches of the past and provide a frictionless path to production. Release management could be all about making it easier than ever to continuously deliver value and applying the “you build it, you own it” principle. 

Why is IT change management important?

Modern organizations have a couple of critical and competing expectations for their IT team. First, they expect stable, reliable services that ensure the organization is productive and able to meet end-user expectations. Second, the IT team needs to implement regular service updates to enable the organization to adapt to constantly changing security, cost, and business requirements.

Failure to do either can result in dire consequences. Inability to maintain reliable service can cause massive damage to productivity and costs. Many organizations report downtime costing more than $300,000 per hour,  according to Gartner . For some web-based services, that number can be dramatically higher. 

At the same time, organizations that aren’t adapting for the future will become unable to keep pace with the speed of business and fall behind their competition. Deploying changes too slowly could result in employees defecting to work in places with less clunky systems or your customers sending their support and dollars to other organizations that provide them more value. 

So, how are you supposed to manage these conflicting needs? A change management practice enables your organization to ship updates while ensuring stability and mitigating risk. Change management helps accomplish change in the following ways: 

• Establishing a framework to manage the change process 
• Prioritizing necessary changes to properly allocate resources 
• Incorporating relevant information for smarter decision making 
• Involving necessary stakeholders from dev and IT for approvals 
• Incorporating testing of changes, to avoid incidents
• Streamlining and improving the flow of changes to deliver value more quickly 

Types of changes

ITIL defines three types of changes.

Standard changes

Standard changes are low-risk, commonly repeated, and pre-approved. They’re performed frequently and follow a documented, approved process. 

For example, adding memory or storage is a standard change. Replacing a failing router with an identical working router is a standard change. Creating a new instance of a database is a standard change. 

All of these changes are common and follow a well-defined process. And because, presumably, that process has already gone through change management’s risk assessment and approval process once, it doesn’t need to go through the process again every time a router needs replacing. 

For many companies, standard changes are a prime opportunity for automation. Some companies report that as many as 70% of standard changes can be automated—freeing up their teams to focus on normal and emergency changes. 

Normal changes

Normal changes are non-emergency changes that don’t have a defined, pre-approved process. 

For example, upgrading to a new content management system is a normal change. Migrating to a new data center is a normal change. Performance improvements are normal changes. They’re not standard and repeatable. There are risks involved. But they’re also not emergencies. Which means they can go into the usual change management queue for risk assessment and approval.  

Some normal changes—like a data center switch—are high-risk and may require risk assessment and approval from a change advisory board (CAB). Others—like a website change—may be low-risk and can be approved on a quicker timeline by a designated change authority or via automated checks and peer review.

Emergency changes

These changes arise from an unexpected error or threat and need to be addressed immediately—usually to restore service for customers or employees or secure systems against a threat. 

For example, implementing a security patch is an emergency change. Dealing with a server outage is an emergency change. Resolving a major incident is an emergency change. 

The urgency of emergency changes means they need to be handled on a much tighter timeline because the risk of a lengthy review process is higher than the risks involved with resolving the issue quickly. 

How you categorize your changes depends on factors including your organization, processes, and risk tolerance. We advocate dropping the "one size fits all" approach, and treating each change differently based on risk assessment. As your organization learns more about previous incidents, particular systems, and incorporates other relevant data, it should be possible to designate a higher share of changes as standard and pre-approve them. Modern change management should make change requests as simple and streamlined as possible.

What is a change advisory board (CAB)?

In most traditional IT organizations, a change advisory board (CAB) is tasked with assessing the risks of and approving (or not approving) each change. Typically, the CAB holds regularly scheduled meetings to review all proposed upcoming changes, pulling in experts as needed to explain, defend, or assess the change with them.

On one hand, change advisory boards can help reduce risk and raise the alert when a change simply won’t work for the company. On the other hand, they can also create a bottleneck—especially when they’re made up of people who aren’t close to the changes being deployed. In many enterprises, the change advisory board (CAB) approval process is complex and time-consuming, which slows down the change process. 

Many IT teams are moving away from traditional CAB meetings or restricting the scope to the most risky changes and important organizational concerns. In this paradigm, CABs can become trusted advisors responsible for monitoring trends, advising on how practices can address them, and coordinating between teams and their needs.

ITIL 4 also encourages decentralizing your change authority into the business stakeholder or peer level. Instead of using a separate committee, build change management into normal workflows with relevant stakeholders. To avoid bottleneck situations, look to automation, virtual checklists, and peer review as a nimbler and more collaborative alternative.    

The change management process

For nimble, high-velocity teams, the change management process is shifting—away from lengthy reviews and non-technical stakeholder approvals and toward automated, collaborative processes between IT and development teams that increase agility while still balancing risk.

Here is a basic overview of a change management process, along with some recommendations to increase your speed to delivering value. 

Change management best practices

As we mentioned before, change management brings about the same kind of dread some of us feel about eating leafy greens. We don’t always look forward to the dish, but know just how important it is. And, we can take steps to make both things more appealing. 

Here are some best practices for modern change management: 

• Understand your organization’s risk tolerance and regulatory obligations
• Simplify and automate change management processes wherever possible
• Give CABs a more strategic focus
• Embrace practices that make standard change the new normal change
• Look to various frameworks like ITIL and DevOps to find guidelines that work best for your organization 
• Prioritize collaboration
• Use chaos engineering to reduce your risk 
• Streamline change request intake for IT and developer teams
• Unlock learning with change metrics and KPIs 
• Embrace a DevOps-driven approach to release management

Rising to the challenges of change management

Developers want to roll out code quickly and without expending additional time and effort on manual documentation. IT operations teams seek to reduce risk, maintain detailed records for audits, and avoid incidents. Asking developers to add an extra step to their processes, write things down, clock in and clock out, can feel like it’s keeping them from the ultimate goals of their jobs. Asking the ops team to overhaul existing processes, lifting approval checks, and leaving more to automation is not easy and can feel like it’s creating more risk. 

Meanwhile, the stakes are higher than ever. The rise of software-powered services has raised customer expectations and demand for always-on, high-performing services. In an increasingly dynamic environment, the work needed to manage services keeps growing. 

So, how can we overcome these challenges? Well, it begins with dispelling the myth that heavy process reduces risks. Then embracing a culture, corresponding practices, and tools that help teams collaborate and ship. And finally, continuously incorporating information to demonstrate the value of the previous steps and continue striving for improvement.

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How To Mitigate Change Management Risk

Change Strategists

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So, you’ve decided to make some changes in your organization. That’s great! After all, change is necessary for growth and progress. However, before you jump headfirst into the deep end of change management, it’s important to recognize the potential risks involved.

To mitigate change management risk, it is important to have a clear plan in place before implementing any changes. This includes identifying potential risks and developing strategies to address them. Communication and training are also key components, as they can help employees understand the changes and how to adapt to them.

It is also important to have a process for monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of the changes, and making adjustments as needed.

Change management can be a tricky business. It’s not just about implementing new processes or technologies, but also about managing people’s emotions, expectations, and resistance to change. Without proper planning and execution, change can result in chaos, confusion, and even failure.

But fear not, dear reader! In this article, we will guide you through the process of mitigating change management risk, step-by-step.

From identifying potential risks to celebrating success, we’ll cover everything you need to know to ensure a smooth and successful transition.

So, let’s get started!

Identify Potential Risks

You need to start by looking for possible challenges that could come up in the process of change management. This is called risk assessment, and it involves identifying potential risks that may cause delays or failure of the project.

Some of the risks that should be considered during the assessment include employee resistance, lack of communication, inadequate training, and budget constraints.

Once you have identified the potential risks, you can then develop mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of these risks. For instance, to mitigate employee resistance, you can involve them in the change process by communicating the benefits of the change and providing them with adequate training.

To mitigate the lack of communication, you can establish clear communication channels and set up regular meetings to update stakeholders on the progress of the project.

In conclusion, identifying potential risks and developing mitigation strategies is crucial in mitigating change management risk. By doing so, you can ensure that the change process is smooth and successful, and that the project is completed within the set timeline and budget. Remember that risk assessment is an ongoing process, and it’s important to regularly review and update your mitigation strategies as the project progresses.

Develop a Change Management Plan

Crafting a solid plan is key to successfully navigating and adapting to any shifts in your organization. Change readiness is essential to ensure that your plan is effective and sustainable.

Assessing your team’s readiness for change will help you develop a plan that is tailored to their needs. To do this, consider conducting surveys, focus groups, or interviews to gain insights into how your team perceives the change, what they need to feel comfortable with it, and what challenges they anticipate. By taking these steps, you can ensure that your plan is well-informed and addresses any potential obstacles.

Stakeholder engagement is another crucial component of change management planning. Engaging stakeholders early on and throughout the change process can help you build buy-in and support for your plan. It can also help you identify potential resistance or challenges early on and address them before they become major roadblocks.

Consider involving stakeholders in planning, communicating, and implementing the change. This can include senior leaders, front-line employees, customers, and any other groups that may be impacted by the change. By engaging stakeholders in a meaningful way, you can ensure that your plan is well-informed, collaborative, and successful.

In summary, developing a change management plan requires careful consideration of change readiness and stakeholder engagement. Crafting a solid plan that is tailored to your team’s needs and involves stakeholders early on can help you mitigate risk and ensure long-term success. By investing time and effort in planning and engaging stakeholders, you can navigate change more effectively and build a stronger, more resilient organization.

Communicate Effectively

In this section, effectively communicating your change management plan is like a conductor leading an orchestra. Just as a conductor brings all the different instruments together in harmony towards a common goal, you must bring your team together towards a successful change implementation.

The importance of empathy and clarity cannot be overstated when it comes to effective communication. Empathy allows you to understand your team’s perspective and concerns, while clarity ensures that everyone is on the same page.

Building trust is crucial in any change management initiative, and effective communication is key to achieving it. Transparency and consistency are the building blocks of trust. Ensure that you communicate every step of the change process with transparency, keeping your team informed about what’s coming and what’s expected of them. Consistency in communication helps to establish trust, so maintain a regular cadence of communication with your team.

In summary, effective communication is vital to mitigate change management risk. Empathy and clarity are crucial components of effective communication, as is building trust through transparency and consistency. As you communicate your change management plan, remember that you’re the conductor leading your team towards a successful change initiative.

Build a Strong Team

Together, you’ll be assembling a team of skilled individuals who will work in harmony towards a common goal, much like a group of musicians in an orchestra. The success of your change management plan will depend on how effectively you build and lead your team.

To start, you should identify the key competencies required for your team and select individuals who have those skills. Once you have your team in place, it’s important to foster a culture of collaboration and communication.

To build a strong team, you can engage in team building activities that promote trust and open communication. This can be as simple as having regular team meetings or as elaborate as organizing a retreat or team-building workshop. The goal is to help your team members get to know each other better, understand their strengths and weaknesses, and develop a sense of camaraderie.

Additionally, it’s important to provide leadership development opportunities for your team members. This can include training, mentoring, and coaching to help them grow and develop their leadership skills.

In summary, building a strong team is essential to mitigating change management risk. By assembling a group of skilled individuals who work well together and providing leadership development opportunities, you can ensure that your team is equipped to handle any challenges that may arise during the change management process. Remember that team building is an ongoing process, so continue to foster a culture of collaboration and communication to maintain a high-performing team.

Monitor Progress

Monitoring progress is crucial to the success of your change management plan, so keep an eye on how things are going and adjust as needed. Set up regular feedback sessions with your team and stakeholders to ensure that everyone is on the same page. Use performance metrics to track progress and identify any areas that need improvement.

Stakeholder engagement is a critical component of change management, and regular feedback loops can help you keep your stakeholders informed and engaged. Make sure that you’re communicating with your stakeholders regularly and that you’re providing them with the information they need to understand the changes that are happening. Encourage feedback and be open to suggestions for improvement.

Using performance metrics to monitor progress is an effective way to ensure the success of your change management plan. By tracking key performance indicators, you can identify any areas that need improvement and make adjustments as needed. Regular feedback sessions with your team and stakeholders can also help you identify any issues early on and address them before they become major problems.

Remember that change management is an ongoing process, and monitoring progress is essential to ensuring that your plan is successful.

Anticipate and Address Resistance

Don’t let resistance hold you back – anticipate and address it head-on to ensure the success of your plan. Resistance is a natural part of change management, but it can also be a major obstacle.

To mitigate this risk, it’s important to have a clear understanding of the potential sources of resistance. This could include a fear of the unknown, a lack of understanding about the benefits of the change, or concerns about job security. Once you have identified these potential sources of resistance, you can develop targeted training strategies and communication plans to address them.

One effective strategy for mitigating resistance is to focus on leadership buy-in. If key leaders within the organization are on board with the change, they can help to create a culture that is supportive of the transition. This can include providing training and resources to help employees adapt to the change, as well as modeling the desired behaviors and attitudes.

By engaging these leaders early on in the process and making them part of the planning and implementation, you can help to build a coalition of support that can help to overcome resistance.

Another important aspect of addressing resistance is to be transparent and open to feedback. Employees are more likely to support a change if they feel that their concerns and opinions are being heard and valued. This means providing regular updates on the progress of the change, soliciting feedback from employees, and being willing to make adjustments as needed.

By creating a culture of openness and transparency, you can help to build trust and engagement, which can ultimately lead to a more successful change management process.

Manage Operational Disruptions

As you dive deeper into managing operational disruptions, it’s important to develop contingency plans to prepare for unexpected events. In doing so, you’ll be able to minimize disruptions and keep your business running smoothly.

Effective communication with customers and suppliers is also crucial. This will help maintain strong relationships and ensure that everyone is on the same page.

By taking a proactive approach and being prepared for potential disruptions, you can minimize their impact and keep your business moving forward.

Develop Contingency Plans

The key to successfully navigating unexpected obstacles is to have backup plans in place that are as solid as a rock. Developing contingency plans is a crucial step in mitigating change management risk. Here are three things to keep in mind when creating these plans:

Identify the potential risks: Start by conducting a thorough risk assessment to identify all possible risks that could disrupt your operations. This will help you develop contingency plans that address the most critical risks first.

Prioritize your response: Not all risks require the same level of response. Identify which risks are most likely to occur and which ones would have the greatest impact on your business. This will help you prioritize your response and allocate resources accordingly.

Test and refine your plans: Once you’ve developed your contingency plans, it’s important to test them regularly to ensure they’re effective and up-to-date. This will help you identify any weaknesses in your plans and refine them accordingly.

By following these steps, you can develop contingency plans that’ll help you navigate unexpected obstacles and minimize the impact of change management risk on your business continuity.

Minimize Disruptions

You can minimize disruptions by focusing on strategies to keep your operations running smoothly even when unexpected obstacles arise. One way to do this is by implementing change management best practices such as stakeholder engagement and training strategies. By involving stakeholders in the change process, you can ensure that their concerns and needs are addressed, which can help reduce resistance to change. Additionally, providing training and support to employees can help them understand the changes and adapt more quickly, which can minimize disruptions to daily operations.

To further minimize disruptions, you can also develop a contingency plan that outlines how your organization will respond to unexpected events. This plan should include specific actions to take in the event of a disruption, such as identifying backup systems or resources that can be used to maintain operations. By preparing for potential disruptions in advance, you can minimize the impact of these events and ensure that your organization can continue to function effectively.

Communicate Effectively with Customers and Suppliers

To continue minimizing disruptions during change management, it’s important to effectively communicate with customers and suppliers. This means coming up with strategies and tools to engage with them during the process. Effective communication is key to mitigating risks and ensuring a smooth transition.

One of the most important strategies is to engage with customers and suppliers early on in the process. This allows you to understand their needs and concerns, and address them proactively. You can also use various communication channels such as email, phone calls, or face-to-face meetings to keep them informed about the changes and how they may be affected.

Additionally, it’s important to provide them with adequate training and resources to help them adapt to the changes. By doing so, you can build trust and ensure their continued support throughout the transition.

Evaluate the Results

As you evaluate the outcomes of your change management strategies, you’ll gain valuable insights into their effectiveness and identify any potential roadblocks that may arise during implementation. This process involves analyzing data to measure success and determine whether your efforts are delivering the desired results. By doing so, you can identify areas for improvement and make any necessary adjustments to your approach.

To effectively evaluate the results of your change management initiatives, you’ll need to establish clear metrics and benchmarks to measure success. This may involve tracking key performance indicators such as employee satisfaction, productivity, and revenue growth. By regularly monitoring these metrics, you can identify any trends or patterns that may be impacting your outcomes and adjust your strategies accordingly.

In addition to analyzing data, it’s important to gather feedback from stakeholders and team members throughout the change management process. This can help you identify any potential issues or concerns before they become major roadblocks. By incorporating this feedback into your evaluation process, you can gain a more comprehensive understanding of the effectiveness of your strategies and make any necessary changes to ensure a successful implementation.

Celebrate Success

Let’s take a moment to celebrate the success of our change initiatives and acknowledge the positive impact they’ve had on our team’s morale and productivity. Did you know that employee satisfaction increased by 20% after implementing these changes?

It’s important to recognize achievements and to celebrate the progress we’ve made. By acknowledging the successes, we can motivate and inspire our team to continue to embrace change and push forward.

One way to celebrate success is to involve employees in the process. Employees who feel valued and appreciated are more likely to be engaged and committed to their work. By involving them in the celebration, we can build a sense of community and foster a collaborative culture. This can be achieved through team-building activities, recognition programs, and other initiatives that promote a positive and supportive work environment.

Incorporating a culture of celebration and recognition can also help mitigate change management risks. When employees feel supported and valued, they’re more likely to embrace change and adapt to new processes. This can lead to a smoother transition and a faster return on investment.

Celebrating success and recognizing achievements can also help build momentum and create a positive feedback loop that encourages continued improvement and growth. So, let’s take a moment to celebrate our successes, involve our employees, and continue to push forward towards our goals.

Continuously Improve

You can always find ways to improve and grow, whether it’s through seeking feedback from your team or staying up-to-date on industry trends and best practices.

Continuous improvement is an essential aspect of mitigating change management risks. By implementing strategies that foster a culture of continuous improvement, you can stay ahead of the curve and ensure that your team is always working towards optimal performance.

Below are the best practices for implementing a continuous improvement plan:

Gather Feedback: One of the best ways to improve is by gathering feedback from your team. Encourage an open-door policy where team members can share their ideas and concerns without fear of retribution. Regular check-ins and surveys will also help you gauge team morale and identify areas for improvement.

Set Goals: Goals help to provide direction and focus. Set clear, measurable, and achievable goals for your team and track progress towards these goals. Celebrate milestones and achievements along the way to keep motivation high.

Stay Informed: Staying up-to-date on industry trends and best practices is essential for continuous improvement. Attend conferences, read relevant publications, and network with peers to stay informed and bring new ideas back to your team. Continuous improvement is an ongoing process, and it requires a commitment to learning and growth.

Incorporating these best practices into your change management plan will help you mitigate risks and maximize success. Remember, continuous improvement isn’t a destination but a journey. By fostering a culture of continuous improvement, you can ensure that your team is always striving for excellence.

What Are the Potential Risks of Change Management and How Can They Be Managed?

When implementing change within an organization, there are potential risks that may arise, such as resistance from employees, communication breakdowns, and productivity disruptions. To manage these risks, employing effective mitigating change management strategies , including clear communication, involving employees in the process, providing necessary support and training, and continuously monitoring and adjusting the change plan, can help ensure a successful transition.

Now that you’ve gone through the steps of mitigating change management risk, it’s important to remember that this is an ongoing process. Change is inevitable, and the risks associated with it will always be present. Therefore, it’s crucial to continuously improve and refine your change management strategies.

One way to do this is by evaluating the results of your current change management plan. Analyze what worked, what didn’t, and why. This will help you identify areas that need improvement and make necessary adjustments.

Remember to also celebrate success. Acknowledge the hard work and dedication of your team and recognize the positive outcomes of your change management efforts. This will not only boost morale but also reinforce the importance of effective change management in your organization.

By following these steps and continuously improving your change management strategies, you can mitigate risk and ensure the successful implementation of organizational changes.

About the author

If you want to grow your business visit Growth Jetpack program . And if you want the best technology to grow your online brand visit Clixoni .

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What Is Risk Management & Why Is It Important?

• 24 Oct 2023

Businesses can’t operate without risk. Economic, technological, environmental, and competitive factors introduce obstacles that companies must not only manage but overcome.

According to PwC’s Global Risk Survey , organizations that embrace strategic risk management are five times more likely to deliver stakeholder confidence and better business outcomes and two times more likely to expect faster revenue growth.

If you want to enhance your job performance and identify and mitigate risk more effectively, here’s a breakdown of what risk management is and why it’s important.

Access your free e-book today.

What Is Risk Management?

Risk management is the systematic process of identifying, assessing, and mitigating threats or uncertainties that can affect your organization. It involves analyzing risks’ likelihood and impact, developing strategies to minimize harm, and monitoring measures’ effectiveness.

“Competing successfully in any industry involves some level of risk,” says Harvard Business School Professor Robert Simons, who teaches the online course Strategy Execution . “But high-performing businesses with high-pressure cultures are especially vulnerable. As a manager, you need to know how and why these risks arise and how to avoid them.”

According to Strategy Execution , strategic risk has three main causes:

• Pressures due to growth: This is often caused by an accelerated rate of expansion that makes staffing or industry knowledge gaps more harmful to your business.
• Pressures due to culture: While entrepreneurial risk-taking can come with rewards, executive resistance and internal competition can cause problems.
• Pressures due to information management: Since information is key to effective leadership , gaps in performance measures can result in decentralized decision-making.

These pressures can lead to several types of risk that you must manage or mitigate to avoid reputational, financial, or strategic failures. However, risks aren’t always obvious.

“I think one of the challenges firms face is the ability to properly identify their risks,” says HBS Professor Eugene Soltes in Strategy Execution .

Therefore, it’s crucial to pinpoint unexpected events or conditions that could significantly impede your organization’s business strategy .

Related: Business Strategy vs. Strategy Execution: Which Course Is Right for Me?

According to Strategy Execution , strategic risk comprises:

• Operations risk: This occurs when internal operational errors interrupt your products or services’ flow. For example, shipping tainted products can negatively affect food distribution companies.
• Asset impairment risk: When your company’s assets lose a significant portion of their current value because of a decreased likelihood of receiving future cash flows . For instance, losing property assets, like a manufacturing plant, due to a natural disaster.
• Competitive risk: Changes in the competitive environment can interrupt your organization’s ability to create value and differentiate its offerings—eventually leading to a significant loss in revenue.
• Franchise risk: When your organization’s value erodes because stakeholders lose confidence in its objectives. This primarily results from failing to control any of the strategic risk sources listed above.

Understanding these risks is essential to ensuring your organization’s long-term success. Here’s a deeper dive into why risk management is important.

4 Reasons Why Risk Management Is Important

1. protects organization’s reputation.

In many cases, effective risk management proactively protects your organization from incidents that can affect its reputation.

“Franchise risk is a concern for all businesses,“ Simons says in Strategy Execution . “However, it's especially pressing for businesses whose reputations depend on the trust of key constituents.”

For example, airlines are particularly susceptible to franchise risk because of unforeseen events, such as flight delays and cancellations caused by weather or mechanical failure. While such incidents are considered operational risks, they can be incredibly damaging.

In 2016, Delta Airlines experienced a national computer outage, resulting in over 2,000 flight cancellations. Delta not only lost an estimated $150 million but took a hit to its reputation as a reliable airline that prided itself on “canceling cancellations.”

While Delta bounced back, the incident illustrates how mitigating operational errors can make or break your organization.

2. Minimizes Losses

Most businesses create risk management teams to avoid major financial losses. Yet, various risks can still impact their bottom lines.

A Vault Platform study found that dealing with workplace misconduct cost U.S. businesses over $20 billion in 2021. In addition, Soltes says in Strategy Execution that corporate fines for misconduct have risen 40-fold in the U.S. over the last 20 years.

One way to mitigate financial losses related to employee misconduct is by implementing internal controls. According to Strategy Execution , internal controls are the policies and procedures designed to ensure reliable accounting information and safeguard company assets.

“Managers use internal controls to limit the opportunities employees have to expose the business to risk,” Simons says in the course.

One company that could have benefited from implementing internal controls is Volkswagen (VW). In 2015, VW whistle-blowers revealed that the company’s engineers deliberately manipulated diesel vehicles’ emissions data to make them appear more environmentally friendly.

This led to severe consequences, including regulatory penalties, expensive vehicle recalls, and legal settlements—all of which resulted in significant financial losses. By 2018, U.S. authorities had extracted $25 billion in fines, penalties, civil damages, and restitution from the company.

Had VW maintained more rigorous internal controls to ensure transparency, compliance, and proper oversight of its engineering practices, perhaps it could have detected—or even averted—the situation.

Related: What Are Business Ethics & Why Are They Important?

3. Encourages Innovation and Growth

Risk management isn’t just about avoiding negative outcomes. It can also be the catalyst that drives your organization’s innovation and growth.

“Risks may not be pleasant to think about, but they’re inevitable if you want to push your business to innovate and remain competitive,” Simons says in Strategy Execution .

According to PwC , 83 percent of companies’ business strategies focus on growth, despite risks and mixed economic signals. In Strategy Execution , Simons notes that competitive risk is a challenge you must constantly monitor and address.

“Any firm operating in a competitive market must focus its attention on changes in the external environment that could impair its ability to create value for its customers,” Simons says.

This requires incorporating boundary systems —explicit statements that define and communicate risks to avoid—to ensure internal controls don’t extinguish innovation.

“Boundary systems are essential levers in businesses to give people freedom,” Simons says. “In such circumstances, you don’t want to stifle innovation or entrepreneurial behavior by telling people how to do their jobs. And if you want to remain competitive, you’ll need to innovate and adapt.”

Netflix is an example of how risk management can inspire innovation. In the early 2000s, the company was primarily known for its DVD-by-mail rental service. With growing competition from video rental stores, Netflix went against the grain and introduced its streaming service. This changed the market, resulting in a booming industry nearly a decade later.

Netflix’s innovation didn’t stop there. Once the steaming services market became highly competitive, the company shifted once again to gain a competitive edge. It ventured into producing original content, which ultimately helped differentiate its platform and attract additional subscribers.

By offering more freedom within internal controls, you can encourage innovation and constant growth.

4. Enhances Decision-Making

Risk management also provides a structured framework for decision-making. This can be beneficial if your business is inclined toward risks that are difficult to manage.

By pulling data from existing control systems to develop hypothetical scenarios, you can discuss and debate strategies’ efficacy before executing them.

“Interactive control systems are the formal information systems managers use to personally involve themselves in the decision activities of subordinates,” Simons says in Strategy Execution . “Decision activities that relate to and impact strategic uncertainties.”

JPMorgan Chase, one of the most prominent financial institutions in the world, is particularly susceptible to cyber risks because it compiles vast amounts of sensitive customer data . According to PwC , cybersecurity is the number one business risk on managers’ minds, with 78 percent worried about more frequent or broader cyber attacks.

Using data science techniques like machine learning algorithms enables JPMorgan Chase’s leadership not only to detect and prevent cyber attacks but address and mitigate risk.

Start Managing Your Organization's Risk

Risk management is essential to business. While some risk is inevitable, your ability to identify and mitigate it can benefit your organization.

But you can’t plan for everything. According to the Harvard Business Review , some risks are so remote that no one could have imagined them. Some result from a perfect storm of incidents, while others materialize rapidly and on enormous scales.

By taking an online strategy course , you can build the knowledge and skills to identify strategic risks and ensure they don’t undermine your business. For example, through an interactive learning experience, Strategy Execution enables you to draw insights from real-world business examples and better understand how to approach risk management.

Do you want to mitigate your organization’s risks? Explore Strategy Execution —one of our online strategy courses —and download our free strategy e-book to gain the insights to build a successful strategy.

About the Author

Risk Manager

A scalable healthcare business analytics solution and streamlined workflows that deliver actionable intelligence to support payment reform programs.

What’s Included in Risk Manager

Acg risk and prometheus engines.

• Stratifies and identifies populations
• Identifies risk drivers to help drive better patient care
• Supports commercial, Medicare, and Medicaid populations
• Helps determine likelihood of hospitalization

Cost and utilization analysis

• ED visits, including average cost, frequent visitors, and low acuity
• Inpatient stays, including average cost, readmits, and in vs. out of network
• Outpatient imaging
• Office visits

QRE NCQA-certified HEDIS engine

• Measures quality compliance and gaps in care
• Multiple measure sets (HEDIS, ACO, IHA)
• Multiple measure runs, including enrollment, time period, and user-entered data
• Patient-detail reporting and physician profiling
• Letter generation for outreach

Prometheus episode of care analytics

• Leverage clinically validated episode definitions
• Target providers with compelling data
• Optimize your network design
• Track referral patterns
• Compare physician performance

Transform data to support payment reform

Ingest data once to repurpose for multiple insights

Minimize your overhead by providing one data stream. Our healthcare business analytics solution executes a multitude of analytical engines against this data, including risk, cost, utilization, quality, and episode engines to support risk-based contracts.

Easily use analytics to find areas for opportunity

Utilize our healthcare business analytics platform to find the “needle in a haystack.” Discover actionable opportunities to bend the cost curve by utilizing high-level aggregation and at-a-glance guided analytics.

Use intelligence to accelerate behavior change

Help modify behaviors by combining scope and depth to provide actionable insights, from the big picture (across the network) to specific provider performance to individual patients who need outreach.

Powerful dashboards to drive informed decisions

Empower multiple types of users to accomplish their goal of finding actionable opportunities by offering a wide range of tools to help them accomplish their goals. Our healthcare business analytics can be used by medical directors, practice managers, providers, care coordinators, and analysts. Each group benefits from the dashboards, fixed reports, custom visualizations, three-dimensional report builders, and other advanced features.

PMPY average savings, with 97.2 average quality score 1

million in medical saving generated, $14.71 savings PMPM 2

fewer readmissions and 4% fewer ED visits 3

1 Achieved by three ACOs participating in MSSP

2,3 Regional health plan using Risk Manager to drive total cost of care

Our outcomes

Access Value-Based Care Analytics With Prometheus

Discover how Prometheus Analytics® helps organizations create, analyze, and deploy episodes of care that form the foundation of alternative payment models.

Infographic

Your To-Do List for No-Fuss HEDIS

Simplify HEDIS compliance with a helpful calendar infographic that outlines each monthly task.

On-demand Webinar

The Evolution of Value-Based Care

Learn how to use retrospective analysis to define equitable, empirically grounded Episodes of Care that you can successfully apply in a prospective context.

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Audit Manager – Compliance and Operational Risk

Job Description:

At Bank of America, we are guided by a common purpose to help make financial lives better through the power of every connection. Responsible Growth is how we run our company and how we deliver for our clients, teammates, communities and shareholders every day.

One of the keys to driving Responsible Growth is being a great place to work for our teammates around the world. We’re devoted to being a diverse and inclusive workplace for everyone. We hire individuals with a broad range of backgrounds and experiences and invest heavily in our teammates and their families by offering competitive benefits to support their physical, emotional, and financial well-being.

Bank of America believes both in the importance of working together and offering flexibility to our employees. We use a multi-faceted approach for flexibility, depending on the various roles in our organization.

Working at Bank of America will give you a great career with opportunities to learn, grow and make an impact, along with the power to make a difference. Join us!

This job is responsible for overseeing assigned areas of audit work acting as an Auditor-in-Charge (AIC), and executing on the audit strategy for Lines of Business (LOBs). Key responsibilities include driving risk-based auditing by defining scope and test procedures to evaluate the control environment in conformance with audit policies, assessing issues for business impact and recommending severity ratings, drafting audit reports, and managing business partner relationships. Job expectations include fostering an inclusive work environment, and mentoring team members.

Responsibilities

• Subject matter expertise of compliance and operational risk frameworks and a solid business understanding of the financial services industry.
• Plan, perform, and lead compliance and operational risk audits at the enterprise level 
• Subject matter expertise in risk management frameworks and underlying regulations like Basel, Heightened Standards, SR 08-8, Fed 13-1, Enhanced Prudential Standards. 
• Perform audit reviews for risk appetite, risk governance, risk culture, RCSA programs, loss data, second line monitoring and testing programs. 
• Manage staff during audit engagements and provide feedback on work performed;
• Design and perform compliance and operational risk audit procedures, including identifying and defining issues, reviewing and analyzing evidence, and documenting processes;
• Leverage available data and analytical tools during the planning, fieldwork, and reporting phases of audit delivery;
• Communicate the results of audit projects to management (written reports/oral presentations);
• Establish and build working relationships with internal and external management;   
• Perform risk assessments of business activities, potential risks exposures, and materiality of loss; and
• Demonstrates experience in managing integrated internal audit and assurance delivery.
• Effective influence skills in communicating findings. This individual must be an articulate and effective communicator, both verbally and in writing.
• Strong interpersonal skills for interfacing with all levels of internal and external audit and management
• Executes audit strategy for the sound application of risk-based auditing by defining audit scope and audit programs, and drafting audit reports leveraging automation and innovative methods in a timely and high quality manner
• Acts as Auditor-in-Charge (AIC) by overseeing audit testing and ensuring it is executed in a timely manner and conforms with quality standards, audit policies, and procedures
• Assesses impacts to business processes, controls, and strategies to provide recommendations on severity ratings and escalate broad themes or trends accordingly based on existing business knowledge
• Exercises intellectual curiosity and judgment to effectively influence and challenge management to improve the control environment and drive continuous improvements on audit
• Oversees a team of associates and provides day-to-day mentoring and guidance and fosters an inclusive work environment
• Maintains business partner relationships, primarily with line management, to develop business knowledge
• Exercises sound knowledge of product, business, and technical expertise to effectively challenge management to improve the control environment

Required Skills and Experience

• Minimum 5 years of audit experience in areas related to compliance and operational risk management programs and regulations.
• At least 5 years of experience conducting compliance and or operational risk audits in Financial Services.
• At least 3 years of experience leading audits and performing in the role of auditor-in-charge
• Internal Audit Review
• Issue Management
• Risk Management
• Audit Planning
• Analytical Thinking
• Project Management
• Relationship Building
• Business Acumen
• Written Communications
• Technical Documentation
• Attention to Detail
• Critical Thinking

Preferred Requirements

• Master's Degree in Auditing, Master's Degree in Accounting, Master's Degree in Finance, or Master of Business Administration
• Certified Internal Auditor (CIA), Certified Public Accountant (CPA), Certified Regulatory Compliance Manager (CRCM), or Certified Fraud Examiner (CFE)

Minimum Education Requirement:

Hours Per Week:

Weekly Schedule:

Referral Bonus Amount:

Hours Per Week: 

Learn more about this role

JR-24014250

Manages People: No

Travel: Yes, 15% of the time

Connecticut pay range:

$115,600 - $154,000 annualized salary, offers to be determined based on experience, education and skill set.

Discretionary incentive eligible

This role is eligible to participate in the annual discretionary plan. Employees are eligible for an annual discretionary award based on their overall individual performance results and behaviors, the performance and contributions of their line of business and/or group; and the overall success of the Company.

This role is currently benefits eligible . We provide industry-leading benefits, access to paid time off, resources and support to our employees so they can make a genuine impact and contribute to the sustainable growth of our business and the communities we serve.

Rhode Island pay range:

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• Published: 08 May 2024

A meta-analysis on global change drivers and the risk of infectious disease

• Michael B. Mahon   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-9436-2998 1 , 2   na1 ,
• Alexandra Sack 1 , 3   na1 ,
• O. Alejandro Aleuy 1 ,
• Carly Barbera 1 ,
• Ethan Brown   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-0827-4906 1 ,
• Heather Buelow   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-3535-4151 1 ,
• David J. Civitello 4 ,
• Jeremy M. Cohen   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-9611-9150 5 ,
• Luz A. de Wit   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-3045-4017 1 ,
• Meghan Forstchen 1 , 3 ,
• Fletcher W. Halliday 6 ,
• Patrick Heffernan 1 ,
• Sarah A. Knutie 7 ,
• Alexis Korotasz 1 ,
• Joanna G. Larson   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-1401-7837 1 ,
• Samantha L. Rumschlag   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-3125-8402 1 , 2 ,
• Emily Selland   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-4527-297X 1 , 3 ,
• Alexander Shepack 1 ,
• Nitin Vincent   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-8593-1116 1 &
• Jason R. Rohr   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-8285-4912 1 , 2 , 3   na1  

Nature ( 2024 ) Cite this article

5275 Accesses

600 Altmetric

Metrics details

• Infectious diseases

Anthropogenic change is contributing to the rise in emerging infectious diseases, which are significantly correlated with socioeconomic, environmental and ecological factors 1 . Studies have shown that infectious disease risk is modified by changes to biodiversity 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , climate change 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , chemical pollution 12 , 13 , 14 , landscape transformations 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 , 19 , 20 and species introductions 21 . However, it remains unclear which global change drivers most increase disease and under what contexts. Here we amassed a dataset from the literature that contains 2,938 observations of infectious disease responses to global change drivers across 1,497 host–parasite combinations, including plant, animal and human hosts. We found that biodiversity loss, chemical pollution, climate change and introduced species are associated with increases in disease-related end points or harm, whereas urbanization is associated with decreases in disease end points. Natural biodiversity gradients, deforestation and forest fragmentation are comparatively unimportant or idiosyncratic as drivers of disease. Overall, these results are consistent across human and non-human diseases. Nevertheless, context-dependent effects of the global change drivers on disease were found to be common. The findings uncovered by this meta-analysis should help target disease management and surveillance efforts towards global change drivers that increase disease. Specifically, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, managing ecosystem health, and preventing biological invasions and biodiversity loss could help to reduce the burden of plant, animal and human diseases, especially when coupled with improvements to social and economic determinants of health.

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Towards common ground in the biodiversity–disease debate

Biological invasions facilitate zoonotic disease emergences

Measuring the shape of the biodiversity-disease relationship across systems reveals new findings and key gaps

Data availability.

All the data for this Article have been deposited at Zenodo ( https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8169979 ) 52 and GitHub ( https://github.com/mahonmb/GCDofDisease ) 53 .

Code availability

All the code for this Article has been deposited at Zenodo ( https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8169979 ) 52 and GitHub ( https://github.com/mahonmb/GCDofDisease ) 53 . R markdown is provided in Supplementary Data 1 .

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Acknowledgements

We thank C. Mitchell for contributing data on enemy release; L. Albert and B. Shayhorn for assisting with data collection; J. Gurevitch, M. Lajeunesse and G. Stewart for providing comments on an earlier version of this manuscript; and C. Carlson and two anonymous reviewers for improving this paper. This research was supported by grants from the National Science Foundation (DEB-2109293, DEB-2017785, DEB-1518681, IOS-1754868), National Institutes of Health (R01TW010286) and US Department of Agriculture (2021-38420-34065) to J.R.R.; a US Geological Survey Powell grant to J.R.R. and S.L.R.; University of Connecticut Start-up funds to S.A.K.; grants from the National Science Foundation (IOS-1755002) and National Institutes of Health (R01 AI150774) to D.J.C.; and an Ambizione grant (PZ00P3_202027) from the Swiss National Science Foundation to F.W.H. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript.

Author information

These authors contributed equally: Michael B. Mahon, Alexandra Sack, Jason R. Rohr

Authors and Affiliations

Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA

Michael B. Mahon, Alexandra Sack, O. Alejandro Aleuy, Carly Barbera, Ethan Brown, Heather Buelow, Luz A. de Wit, Meghan Forstchen, Patrick Heffernan, Alexis Korotasz, Joanna G. Larson, Samantha L. Rumschlag, Emily Selland, Alexander Shepack, Nitin Vincent & Jason R. Rohr

Environmental Change Initiative, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA

Michael B. Mahon, Samantha L. Rumschlag & Jason R. Rohr

Eck Institute of Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA

Alexandra Sack, Meghan Forstchen, Emily Selland & Jason R. Rohr

Department of Biology, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA

David J. Civitello

Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA

Jeremy M. Cohen

Department of Botany and Plant Pathology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA

Fletcher W. Halliday

Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Institute for Systems Genomics, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA

Sarah A. Knutie

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Contributions

J.R.R. conceptualized the study. All of the authors contributed to the methodology. All of the authors contributed to investigation. Visualization was performed by M.B.M. The initial study list and related information were compiled by D.J.C., J.M.C., F.W.H., S.A.K., S.L.R. and J.R.R. Data extraction was performed by M.B.M., A.S., O.A.A., C.B., E.B., H.B., L.A.d.W., M.F., P.H., A.K., J.G.L., E.S., A.S. and N.V. Data were checked for accuracy by M.B.M. and A.S. Analyses were performed by M.B.M. and J.R.R. Funding was acquired by D.J.C., J.R.R., S.A.K. and S.L.R. Project administration was done by J.R.R. J.R.R. supervised the study. J.R.R. and M.B.M. wrote the original draft. All of the authors reviewed and edited the manuscript. J.R.R. and M.B.M. responded to reviewers.

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Correspondence to Jason R. Rohr .

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Extended data figures and tables

Extended data fig. 1 prisma flowchart..

The PRISMA flow diagram of the search and selection of studies included in this meta-analysis. Note that 77 studies came from the Halliday et al. 3 database on biodiversity change.

Extended Data Fig. 2 Summary of the number of studies (A-F) and parasite taxa (G-L) in the infectious disease database across ecological contexts.

The contexts are global change driver ( A , G ), parasite taxa ( B , H ), host taxa ( C , I ), experimental venue ( D , J ), study habitat ( E , K ), and human parasite status ( F , L ).

Extended Data Fig. 3 Summary of the number of effect sizes (A-I), studies (J-R), and parasite taxa (S-a) in the infectious disease database for various parasite and host contexts.

Shown are parasite type ( A , J , S ), host thermy ( B , K , T ), vector status ( C , L , U ), vector-borne status ( D , M , V ), parasite transmission ( E , N , W ), free living stages ( F , O , X ), host (e.g. disease, host growth, host survival) or parasite (e.g. parasite abundance, prevalence, fecundity) endpoint ( G , P , Y ), micro- vs macroparasite ( H , Q , Z ), and zoonotic status ( I , R , a ).

Extended Data Fig. 4 The effects of global change drivers and subsequent subcategories on disease responses with Log Response Ratio instead of Hedge’s g.

Here, Log Response Ratio shows similar trends to that of Hedge’s g presented in the main text. The displayed points represent the mean predicted values (with 95% confidence intervals) from a meta-analytical model with separate random intercepts for study. Points that do not share letters are significantly different from one another (p < 0.05) based on a two-sided Tukey’s posthoc multiple comparison test with adjustment for multiple comparisons. See Table S 3 for pairwise comparison results. Effects of the five common global change drivers ( A ) have the same directionality, similar magnitude, and significance as those presented in Fig. 2 . Global change driver effects are significant when confidence intervals do not overlap with zero and explicitly tested with two-tailed t-test (indicated by asterisks; t 80.62  = 2.16, p = 0.034 for CP; t 71.42  = 2.10, p = 0.039 for CC; t 131.79  = −3.52, p < 0.001 for HLC; t 61.9  = 2.10, p = 0.040 for IS). The subcategories ( B ) also show similar patterns as those presented in Fig. 3 . Subcategories are significant when confidence intervals do not overlap with zero and were explicitly tested with two-tailed one sample t-test (t 30.52  = 2.17, p = 0.038 for CO 2 ; t 40.03  = 4.64, p < 0.001 for Enemy Release; t 47.45  = 2.18, p = 0.034 for Mean Temperature; t 110.81  = −4.05, p < 0.001 for Urbanization); all other subcategories have p > 0.20. Note that effect size and study numbers are lower here than in Figs. 3 and 4 , because log response ratios cannot be calculated for studies that provide coefficients (e.g., odds ratio) rather than raw data; as such, all observations within BC did not have associated RR values. Despite strong differences in sample size, patterns are consistent across effect sizes, and therefore, we can be confident that the results presented in the main text are not biased because of effect size selection.

Extended Data Fig. 5 Average standard errors of the effect sizes (A) and sample sizes per effect size (B) for each of the five global change drivers.

The displayed points represent the mean predicted values (with 95% confidence intervals) from the generalized linear mixed effects models with separate random intercepts for study (Gaussian distribution for standard error model, A ; Poisson distribution for sample size model, B ). Points that do not share letters are significantly different from one another (p < 0.05) based on a two-sided Tukey’s posthoc multiple comparison test with adjustment for multiple comparisons. Sample sizes (number of studies, n, and effect sizes, k) for each driver are as follows: n = 77, k = 392 for BC; n = 124, k = 364 for CP; n = 202, k = 380 for CC; n = 517, k = 1449 for HLC; n = 96, k = 355 for IS.

Extended Data Fig. 6 Forest plots of effect sizes, associated variances, and relative weights (A), Funnel plots (B), and Egger’s Test plots (C) for each of the five global change drivers and leave-one-out publication bias analyses (D).

In panel A , points are the individual effect sizes (Hedge’s G), error bars are standard errors of the effect size, and size of the points is the relative weight of the observation in the model, with larger points representing observations with higher weight in the model. Sample sizes are provided for each effect size in the meta-analytic database. Effect sizes were plotted in a random order. Egger’s tests indicated significant asymmetries (p < 0.05) in Biodiversity Change (worst asymmetry – likely not bias, just real effect of positive relationship between diversity and disease), Climate Change – (weak asymmetry, again likely not bias, climate change generally increases disease), and Introduced Species (relatively weak asymmetry – unclear whether this is a bias, may be driven by some outliers). No significant asymmetries (p > 0.05) were found in Chemical Pollution and Habitat Loss/Change, suggesting negligible publication bias in reported disease responses across these global change drivers ( B , C ). Egger’s test included publication year as moderator but found no significant relationship between Hedge’s g and publication year (p > 0.05) implying no temporal bias in effect size magnitude or direction. In panel D , the horizontal red lines denote the grand mean and SE of Hedge’s g and (g = 0.1009, SE = 0.0338). Grey points and error bars indicate the Hedge’s g and SEs, respectively, using the leave-one-out method (grand mean is recalculated after a given study is removed from dataset). While the removal of certain studies resulted in values that differed from the grand mean, all estimated Hedge’s g values fell well within the standard error of the grand mean. This sensitivity analysis indicates that our results were robust to the iterative exclusion of individual studies.

Extended Data Fig. 7 The effects of habitat loss/change on disease depend on parasite taxa and land use conversion contexts.

A) Enemy type influences the magnitude of the effect of urbanization on disease: helminths, protists, and arthropods were all negatively associated with urbanization, whereas viruses were non-significantly positively associated with urbanization. B) Reference (control) land use type influences the magnitude of the effect of urbanization on disease: disease was reduced in urban settings compared to rural and peri-urban settings, whereas there were no differences in disease along urbanization gradients or between urban and natural settings. C) The effect of forest fragmentation depends on whether a large/continuous habitat patch is compared to a small patch or whether disease it is measured along an increasing fragmentation gradient (Z = −2.828, p = 0.005). Conversely, the effect of deforestation on disease does not depend on whether the habitat has been destroyed and allowed to regrow (e.g., clearcutting, second growth forests, etc.) or whether it has been replaced with agriculture (e.g., row crop, agroforestry, livestock grazing; Z = 1.809, p = 0.0705). The displayed points represent the mean predicted values (with 95% confidence intervals) from a metafor model where the response variable was a Hedge’s g (representing the effect on an infectious disease endpoint relative to control), study was treated as a random effect, and the independent variables included enemy type (A), reference land use type (B), or land use conversion type (C). Data for (A) and (B) were only those studies that were within the “urbanization” subcategory; data for (C) were only those studies that were within the “deforestation” and “forest fragmentation” subcategories. Sample sizes (number of studies, n, and effect sizes, k) in (A) for each enemy are n = 48, k = 98 for Virus; n = 193, k = 343 for Protist; n = 159, k = 490 for Helminth; n = 10, k = 24 for Fungi; n = 103, k = 223 for Bacteria; and n = 30, k = 73 for Arthropod. Sample sizes in (B) for each reference land use type are n = 391, k = 1073 for Rural; n = 29, k = 74 for Peri-urban; n = 33, k = 83 for Natural; and n = 24, k = 58 for Urban Gradient. Sample sizes in (C) for each land use conversion type are n = 7, k = 47 for Continuous Gradient; n = 16, k = 44 for High/Low Fragmentation; n = 11, k = 27 for Clearcut/Regrowth; and n = 21, k = 43 for Agriculture.

Extended Data Fig. 8 The effects of common global change drivers on mean infectious disease responses in the literature depends on whether the endpoint is the host or parasite; whether the parasite is a vector, is vector-borne, has a complex or direct life cycle, or is a macroparasite; whether the host is an ectotherm or endotherm; or the venue and habitat in which the study was conducted.

A ) Parasite endpoints. B ) Vector-borne status. C ) Parasite transmission route. D ) Parasite size. E ) Venue. F ) Habitat. G ) Host thermy. H ) Parasite type (ecto- or endoparasite). See Table S 2 for number of studies and effect sizes across ecological contexts and global change drivers. See Table S 3 for pairwise comparison results. The displayed points represent the mean predicted values (with 95% confidence intervals) from a metafor model where the response variable was a Hedge’s g (representing the effect on an infectious disease endpoint relative to control), study was treated as a random effect, and the independent variables included the main effects and an interaction between global change driver and the focal independent variable (whether the endpoint measured was a host or parasite, whether the parasite is vector-borne, has a complex or direct life cycle, is a macroparasite, whether the study was conducted in the field or lab, habitat, the host is ectothermic, or the parasite is an ectoparasite).

Extended Data Fig. 9 The effects of five common global change drivers on mean infectious disease responses in the literature only occasionally depend on location, host taxon, and parasite taxon.

A ) Continent in which the field study occurred. Lack of replication in chemical pollution precluded us from including South America, Australia, and Africa in this analysis. B ) Host taxa. C ) Enemy taxa. See Table S 2 for number of studies and effect sizes across ecological contexts and global change drivers. See Table S 3 for pairwise comparison results. The displayed points represent the mean predicted values (with 95% confidence intervals) from a metafor model where the response variable was a Hedge’s g (representing the effect on an infectious disease endpoint relative to control), study was treated as a random effect, and the independent variables included the main effects and an interaction between global change driver and continent, host taxon, and enemy taxon.

Extended Data Fig. 10 The effects of human vs. non-human endpoints for the zoonotic disease subset of database and wild vs. domesticated animal endpoints for the non-human animal subset of database are consistent across global change drivers.

(A) Zoonotic disease responses measured on human hosts responded less positively (closer to zero when positive, further from zero when negative) than those measured on non-human (animal) hosts (Z = 2.306, p = 0.021). Note, IS studies were removed because of missing cells. (B) Disease responses measured on domestic animal hosts responded less positively (closer to zero when positive, further from zero when negative) than those measured on wild animal hosts (Z = 2.636, p = 0.008). These results were consistent across global change drivers (i.e., no significant interaction between endpoint and global change driver). As many of the global change drivers increase zoonotic parasites in non-human animals and all parasites in wild animals, this may suggest that anthropogenic change might increase the occurrence of parasite spillover from animals to humans and thus also pandemic risk. The displayed points represent the mean predicted values (with 95% confidence intervals) from a metafor model where the response variable was a Hedge’s g (representing the effect on an infectious disease endpoint relative to control), study was treated as a random effect, and the independent variable of global change driver and human/non-human hosts. Data for (A) were only those diseases that are considered “zoonotic”; data for (B) were only those endpoints that were measured on non-human animals. Sample sizes in (A) for zoonotic disease measured on human endpoints across global change drivers are n = 3, k = 17 for BC; n = 2, k = 6 for CP; n = 25, k = 39 for CC; and n = 175, k = 331 for HLC. Sample sizes in (A) for zoonotic disease measured on non-human endpoints across global change drivers are n = 25, k = 52 for BC; n = 2, k = 3 for CP; n = 18, k = 29 for CC; n = 126, k = 289 for HLC. Sample sizes in (B) for wild animal endpoints across global change drivers are n = 28, k = 69 for BC; n = 21, k = 44 for CP; n = 50, k = 89 for CC; n = 121, k = 360 for HLC; and n = 29, k = 45 for IS. Sample sizes in (B) for domesticated animal endpoints across global change drivers are n = 2, k = 4 for BC; n = 4, k = 11 for CP; n = 7, k = 20 for CC; n = 78, k = 197 for HLC; and n = 1, k = 2 for IS.

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Climate risk and the opportunity for real estate

Climate change, previously a relatively peripheral concern for many real-estate players, has moved to the top of the agenda. Recently, investors  made net-zero commitments, regulators developed reporting standards, governments passed laws targeting emissions, employees demanded action, and tenants demanded more sustainable buildings. At the same time, the accelerating physical consequences of a changing climate are becoming more pronounced as communities face storms, floods, fires, extreme heat, and other risks.

These changes have brought a sense of urgency to the critical role of real-estate leaders in the climate transition, the period until 2050 during which the world will feel both the physical effects of climate change and the economic, social, and regulatory changes necessary to decarbonize. The climate transition not only creates new responsibilities for real-estate players to both revalue and future-proof their portfolios but also brings opportunities to create fresh sources of value.

The combination of this economic transition and the physical risks of climate change has created a significant risk of mispricing real estate across markets and asset classes. For example, a major North American bank conducted analysis that found dozens of assets in its real-estate portfolio that would likely be exposed to significant devaluations within the next ten years due to factors including increased rates of flooding and job losses due to the climate transition. Additionally, a study of a diversified equity portfolio found that, absent mitigating actions, climate risks could reduce annual returns toward the end of the decade by as much as 40 percent.

Leading real-estate players will figure out which of their assets are mispriced and in what direction and use this insight to inform their investment, asset management, and disposition choices. They will also decarbonize their assets, attracting the trillions of dollars of capital that has been committed to net zero and the thousands of tenants that have made similar commitments. They will then create new revenue sources related to the climate transition.

Building climate intelligence is central to value creation and strategic differentiation in the real-estate industry. But the reverse is also true: real estate is central to global climate change mitigation efforts. Real estate drives approximately 39 percent of total global emissions. Approximately 11 percent of these emissions are generated by manufacturing materials used in buildings (including steel and cement), while the rest is emitted from buildings themselves and by generating the energy that powers buildings. 1 2019 global status report for buildings and construction , International Energy Agency, December 2019.

In addition to the scale of its contribution to total emissions, real estate is critical in global decarbonization efforts for reasons likely to be compelling for investors, tenants, and governments. Significant reductions in emissions associated with real estate can be achieved with positive economics through technologies that already exist. For example, upgrading to more energy-efficient lighting systems and installing better insulation have positive financial returns. Today, newer technologies also make low-carbon heating and cooling systems, such as heat pumps and energy-efficient air conditioning, more cost competitive in many markets and climates. These cost-effective upgrades can create meaningful change while also derisking assets.

We suggest three actions real-estate players can take to thrive throughout the climate transition:

• Incorporate climate change risks into asset and portfolio valuations. This requires building the analytical capabilities to understand both direct and indirect physical and transition risks.
• Decarbonize real-estate assets and portfolios.
• Create new sources of value and revenue streams for investors, tenants, and communities.

Fundamental changes brought on by the climate transition will open new dimensions of competitive differentiation and value creation for real-estate players. More important, leaders will make a valuable contribution to the world’s ability to meet the global climate challenge.

Incorporate climate change risks into asset and portfolio valuations

Climate change’s physical and transition risks touch almost every aspect of a building’s operations and value. Physical risks are hazards caused by a changing climate, including both acute events, such as floods, fires, extreme heat, and storms, and chronic conditions, such as steadily rising sea levels and changing average temperatures. Transition risks include changes in the economy, regulation, consumer behavior, technology, and other human responses to climate change.

We do mind the gap

As we work with real-estate firms, we notice that investment teams increasingly recognize the impact of climate change on asset values. As one leader of valuations at a major real-estate-services firm recently commented to us: “This is the greatest deviation between modeled valuation and actual price that I’ve ever seen, and it’s because of climate.” A chief operating officer of a diversified real-estate investor told us, “We’ve seen underperformance of a cluster of our assets due to climate-related factors that just weren’t considered in our investment theses.”

The industry at large senses how values are shifting. A recent survey of finance experts and professionals conducted by researchers at New York University found that those who think real-estate asset prices reflect climate risks “not enough” outnumber those who think they reflect climate risks “too much” by 67 to 1 (in comparison with stock prices, in which the ratio was 20 to 1). 1 Johannes Stroebel and Jeffrey Wurgler, “What do you think about climate finance?,” Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance, September 3, 2021. The International Renewable Energy Agency has estimated that $7.5 trillion worth of real estate could be “stranded”; these are assets that will experience major write-downs in value given climate risks and the economic transition, making real estate one of the hardest-hit sectors. 2 Jean Eaglesham and Vipal Monga, “Trillions in assets may be left stranded as companies address climate change,” Wall Street Journal , November 20, 2021.

Physical and transition risks can affect assets, such as buildings, directly or indirectly, by having an impact on the markets with which the assets interact. A carbon-intensive building obviously faces regulatory, tenancy, investor, and other risks; over the long term, so does a building that exists in a carbon-intensive ecosystem. For example, a building supplied by a carbon-intensive energy grid or a carbon-intensive transportation system is exposed to the transition risks of those systems as well. All these changes add up to substantial valuation impacts for even diversified portfolios—an increasingly pressing concern for real-estate companies (see sidebar, “We do mind the gap”).

Physical risks, both direct and indirect, have an uneven effect on asset performance

Several major real-estate companies have recently conducted climate stress tests on their portfolios and found a significant impact on portfolio value, with potential losses for some debt portfolios doubling over the next several years. Notably, they found significant variation within the portfolios. Some assets, because of their carbon footprint, location, or tenant composition, would benefit from changes brought on by the climate transition, while others would suffer significant drops in value. The challenge for players is to determine which assets will be affected, in what ways, and how to respond. There is also opportunity for investors who can identify mispriced assets.

Direct physical consequences can be conspicuous: the value of homes in Florida exposed to changing climate-related risks are depressed by roughly $5 billion relative to unexposed homes. According to the Journal of Urban Economics , after Hurricane Sandy, housing prices were reduced by up to 8 percent in New York’s flood zones by 2017, reflecting a greater perception of risk by potential buyers. 2 Francesc Ortega and Süleyman Taspinar, “Rising sea levels and sinking property values: Hurricane Sandy and New York’s housing market,” Journal of Urban Economics , July 2018, Volume 106. In California, there has been a 61 percent annual jump in nonrenewals of insurance (due to higher prices and refused coverage) in areas of moderate-to-very-high fire risk. 3 Elaine Chen and Katherine Chiglinsky, “Many Californians being left without homeowners insurance due to wildfire risk,” Insurance Journal , December 4, 2020.

The indirect impacts of physical risk on assets can be harder to perceive, causing some real-estate players to underestimate them. For example, in 2020, the McKinsey Global Institute modeled expected changes in flooding due to climate change in Bristol, England . A cluster of major corporate headquarters was not directly affected, but the transportation arteries to and from the area were. The water may never enter the lobby of the building, but neither will the tenants.

The climate transition will affect both individual buildings and entire real-estate markets

The investments required to avoid or derisk the worst physical risks will drive a historic reallocation of capital . This will change the structure of our economy and impact the value of the markets, companies, and companies’ locations. These momentous changes require real-estate players to look ahead for regulatory, economic, and social changes that could impact assets.

Among the most direct climate-transition impacts are regulatory requirements to decarbonize buildings, such as New York City’s Local Law 97. In June 2019, the Urban Green Council found that retrofitting all 50,000 buildings covered by the law would create retrofit demand of up to $24.3 billion through 2030. 4 Justin Gerdes, “After pandemic, New York’s buildings face daunting decarbonization mandate,” Greentech Media, April 23, 2020. Standard property valuation models generally do not account for the capital costs required for a building to decarbonize, and investors and operators are often left with a major capital expense or tax that wasn’t considered in the investment memo.

There is also a host of less direct but potentially more significant transition risks that affect whole markets. For example, some carbon-intensive industries are already experiencing rapid declines or fluctuations. In Calgary, for example, the combination of oil price volatility and market-access issues (driven by climate change–related opposition to pipelines) has dramatically depressed revenues from some buildings. Vacancy rates in downtown Calgary reached about 30 percent, a record high, as of January 2021. Investors exposed to the Calgary market have seen their asset values drop precipitously and are left trying to either hold on and hope for a reversal of fortunes or exit the assets and take a significant loss.

Real-estate players should build the capabilities to understand climate-related impacts on asset performance and values

Real-estate owners and investors will need to improve their climate intelligence to understand the potential impact of revenue, operating costs, capital costs, and capitalization rate on assets. This includes developing the analytical capabilities to consistently assess both physical and transition risks. Analyses should encompass both direct effects on assets and indirect effects on the markets, systems, and societies with which assets interact (Exhibit 1).

Portfolio and asset managers can map, quantify, and forecast climate change’s asset value impact

To understand climate change impact on asset values, landlords and investors can develop the following capabilities to understand and quantify risks and opportunities:

• Prioritize. Create a detailed assessment of the asset or portfolio to determine which physical and transition risks are most important and which are less important (using criteria such as the probability of a risk occurring or the severity of that risk).
• Map building exposures. Determine which buildings are exposed to risks, either directly (for example, having to pay a carbon tax on building emissions) or indirectly (for example, exposure to reduction in occupancy as tenants’ industries decline because of a carbon tax), and the degree of exposure (for example, how high floodwaters would reach). This could require detailed modeling of physical hazards (for example, projected changes in flood risks as the climate changes) or macro- or microeconomic modeling (for example, projected GDP impacts based on the carbon price impact on a local geography’s energy production mix).
• Quantify portfolio impact. Combine assessments of the economic risks on individual buildings into an impact map that enables visualization of the entire portfolio (Exhibit 2). This requires combining knowledge of the potential risk or opportunity and an understanding of what drives the economics of a building (including drivers of net operating income, tenancy mix, and areas of cost variability).
• Take action. These capabilities cannot be isolated in a research or environmental, social, and governance (ESG) function but should directly inform investment management, lease pricing, capital attraction and investor relations, asset management, tenant attraction, development, and other core businesses. The processes within organizations must shift to ensure that climate-related insights can be a source of real competitive advantage.

A portfolio revaluation informed by climate change risks can lead to hard choices but will also open the door to acting on decarbonization and exploring new opportunities.

Decarbonize buildings and portfolios

McKinsey research estimates approximately $9.2 trillion in annual investment will be required globally to support the net-zero transition . If the world successfully decarbonizes, the 2050 economy will look fundamentally different from the current economy. If it doesn’t successfully decarbonize, the world will experience mounting physical risks that will strain the foundations of the global economy and society. In either case, the places where people live, work, shop, and play will fundamentally change.

Decarbonizing real estate requires considering a building’s ecosystem

Ultimately, the only way to reduce the risks of climate change is to decarbonize. Real-estate players have a wide array of options for how to proceed, including low-carbon development and construction ; building retrofits to improve energy efficiency; upgrades to heating, cooling, and lighting technology; and technology to manage demand and consumption. But decarbonization is not solely a technical challenge. To develop the most appropriate path, real-estate players need to understand the range of decarbonization options and their financial and strategic costs and benefits.

Decarbonizing real estate

To decarbonize, industry players can take the following steps:

• Understand the starting point. Quantify baseline emissions of each building. This helps real-estate players prioritize where to start (for example, individual buildings, asset classes, or regions) and determine how far there is to go to reach zero emissions.
• Set targets. Decide which type of decarbonization target to set. There is a range of potential target-setting standards that take different approaches (for example, measuring absolute emissions versus emissions intensity, or setting targets at the sector level versus asset level). Players should develop a “house view” on targets that achieve business, investor, stakeholder, regulatory, and other objectives.
• Identify decarbonization levers. Build an asset- or portfolio-level abatement curve. A marginal abatement cost curve  provides a clear view of the potential cost/return on investment of a given emissions-reduction lever along with the impact of that lever on emissions reduction. This approach can be complemented with market and policy scenarios that change the relative costs and benefits of each potential abatement lever.
• Execute. Set up the mechanisms to effectively deploy the decarbonization plan. These may involve making changes to financing and governance, stakeholder engagement (investors, joint-venture partners, operators, and tenants), and a range of operational and risk-management aspects of the business.
• Track and improve. As investors, lenders, and tenants make their own decarbonization commitments, they will need to demonstrate that their real estate is indeed decarbonizing. Thus, much of the value of decarbonizing will come from the ability to demonstrate emissions reduction to potential stakeholders. Building the ability to monitor and progressively reduce emissions on the path to net zero will create an opportunity for players to differentiate.

Create new sources of value and revenue streams for investors, tenants, and communities

As the economy decarbonizes, real-estate players can use their locations, connections to utility systems, local operational footprints, and climate intelligence to create new revenue streams, improve asset values, or launch entirely new businesses.

Opportunities include the following:

• Local energy generation and storage. Real-estate firms can use their physical presence to generate and store energy. For example, property developers have been outfitting buildings with solar arrays and batteries, helping to stabilize energy grids and reduce the costs associated with clean energy. 5 “5 ways clean tech is making commercial RE more energy efficient,” Jones Lang LaSalle, April 20, 2021.
• Green buildings to attract more tenants. Developers and property managers can invest in developing green buildings or retrofitting older buildings to make them green to meet the growing appetite for sustainable workplaces and homes.
• Green-building materials. Players can explore the advantages of green steel, tall timber, modular construction, and other emerging technologies and materials that may have additional benefits, such as faster and lower-cost construction.
• Extra services on-site. Firms can introduce new revenue streams, including vehicle charging, green-facilities management, and other on-site services that enable occupants’ sustainable preferences.
• Services for reducing and tracking emissions. Firms can support occupants by tracking emissions and offering solutions to reduce carbon footprints. These services could include smart sensors and tracking energy consumption through heating, cooling, lighting, and space management.
• Differentiated capital attraction. Given the volume of capital that has already been committed to achieving net zero, firms that are able to decarbonize will have an advantage in attracting capital. Real-estate players may, for example, create specific funds for net-zero buildings or investment themes that support community-scale decarbonization.

The coming climate transition will create seismic shifts in the real-estate industry, changing tenants’ and investors’ demands, the value of individual assets, and the fundamental approaches to developing and operating real estate. Smart players will get ahead of these changes and build climate intelligence early by understanding the implications for asset values, finding opportunities to decarbonize, and creating opportunity through supporting the transition.

Real estate not only will play a critical role in determining whether the world successfully decarbonizes but also will continue to reinvent the way we live, work, and play through these profound physical and economic changes.

This article was edited by Katy McLaughlin, a senior editor in the southern California office.

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Article Contents

Introduction, three catastrophic fires in the past five years, wildland–urban interface risk and climate change, discussion and recommendations: improving wildfire risk reduction efforts, author contributions, data availability statement, wildfire risk management in the era of climate change.

Competing Interest: The authors declare no competing interest.

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Costas Emmanuel Synolakis, Georgios Marios Karagiannis, Wildfire risk management in the era of climate change, PNAS Nexus , Volume 3, Issue 5, May 2024, pgae151, https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae151

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The August 8, 2023R Lahaina fire refocused attention on wildfires, public alerts, and emergency management. Wildfire risk is on the rise, precipitated through a combination of climate change, increased development in the wildland–urban interface (WUI), decades of unmitigated biomass accumulation in forests, and a long history of emphasis on fire suppression over hazard mitigation. Stemming the tide of wildfire death and destruction will involve bringing together diverse scientific disciplines into policy. Renewed emphasis is needed on emergency alerts and community evacuations. Land management strategies need to account for the impact of climate change and hazard mitigation on forest ecosystems. Here, we propose a long-term strategy consisting of integrating wildfire risk management in wider-scope forest land management policies and strategies, and we discuss new technologies and possible scientific breakthroughs.

Here, we draw from research on wildland–urban interface (WUI) fires from forestry and climate science to emergency management and economics, and we summarize the complexity and offer recommendations for policy making. Its significance stems from the analysis of emergency response in recent deadly fires, and our integrated approach which brings together multiple, diverse disciplines to explore policy-related, strategic, and operational approaches for addressing wildland fire risk in the era of climate change.

Wildland fires have existed since the beginning of history, with Paleontological evidence suggesting that early forest fires started to spread about 383 million years ago ( 1 ). As humanity evolved, forest fires were allowed to burn, depending on the objectives of human settlers ( 2 ). For example, even with the advent of fire suppression capabilities in the late 19th century, fire control efforts in the United States focused around settlements, and those beyond were left to burn unabated ( 3 ).

Despite impressive advances in forestry, fire science and firefighting technologies, and the leaps in wildland firefighting capabilities compared to 200 years ago, wildfire deaths are on the rise. The early February 2024 wildfires in Valparaiso, Chile killed over 130 persons and were the deadliest natural disaster in the country since the 2010 Mw∼8.8 earthquake and tsunami ( 4 ) and occurred in what has been called a “megadrought” ( 5 ). The August 8, 2023 Maui fires resulted in the highest death toll in the United States since the 1918 Cloquet and Moose Lake fires, and they amount to the fifth deadliest incident on record nationwide ( 6 ). It has been argued that at least some of these casualties might have been prevented had there been evacuation orders or emergency alerts ( 7 , 8 ). Less than two months after this catastrophe in Hawaii, the nationwide test of the Integrated Public Alert and Warning System established by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), a state-of-the-art capability which has served as a model for countries around the world, came as a stark reminder of the complexity of wildfire risk.

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine ( 9 ) point out that wildfire smoke can be transported over fairly long distances downwind and contaminate indoor and outdoor air, indoor surfaces, soil, and surface and even drinking water. Air pollution by plume transport is an insidious yet potent source of morbidity and mortality. In Europe alone, Kollanus et al. ( 10 ) estimated 1,080 premature deaths in 2008 from wildfire-originated fine particles in the atmosphere, with southern and eastern Europe disproportionately affected. The 2018 Camp Fire (Butte County, CA) resulted in PM 2.5 concentrations in downtown San Francisco, 240 miles away, peaking about six times higher than, and about double the US benchmark, for two weeks after the event ( 11 ). Chen et al. ( 12 ) found that fine particulate matter from wildfires was significantly associated with increased cardiovascular and respiratory mortality at a global level, and estimated the associated death toll at 33,000, or approximately 0.6% of all deaths in 749 cities in 43 countries and regions, in 2000–2016.

The devastation caused by many wildfires does not come without nontrivial societal and political ramifications. Communities affected by wildfires face the trauma of death, injury, loss of livelihoods, damage to homes, and psychological effects. Notwithstanding the provision of relief aid, more often than not, decision-makers face the outrage of their constituents for everything they didn’t do, for example, issuing alerts and evacuation orders. Electorates tend to punish incumbents for wildfire deaths and damage, so there is scapegoating and denial of responsibility by officials, which makes forensic analysis exceptionally difficult.

Wildfire risk lies in the confluence of climate change and development in the WUI. According to the NASEM ( 9 ) report, the WUI in the United States has expanded by 50% in the past 50 years, the fastest growing land use type, and another 10% increase is projected by 2030. Stemming the tide of wildfire death and destruction will involve bringing together diverse scientific disciplines into policy. Here, we will first review three fires to elucidate challenges posed, then we discuss how climate change is projected to increase fire activity, that is the frequency and intensity of fires. We will explore how governments are responding, and we argue that improvements in fire suppression capabilities, although required in the short term, may be financially unsustainable in the long run.

Lahaina, Maui, HI

On August 8, 2023, fires broke out in different parts of Maui, Hawaii. One of the fires destroyed the historic town of Lahaina and claimed 98 lives, becoming the deadliest US wildfire in more than a century.

Maui is no stranger to vegetation fires. However, on August 8, dry vegetation and strong descending winds climbed up to about 125 kilometers per hour and caused the fire to quickly spread out of control. Firefighting resources were stretched thin, responding to multiple incidents on the island. Lahaina was ravaged, and the majority of its about 1,800 buildings were completely burned. Some people sought refuge at sea, whereas others burned in their cars while trying to evacuate ( 7 , 8 ).

As fires broke out, broadcast emergency messages and social media posts from the County of Maui provided updates, alerts, and evacuation calls for some areas but apparently not Lahaina, a densely populated area with limited escape routes. Confusing messaging and delayed evacuation alerts (if they even took place) did not help.

Looking at milestones in the timeline, around 3:30 PM, a major road was closed just north of Lahaina because of what appeared then as just a flare-up of an earlier fire. Maui County's social media page didn’t announce the closure until 4:46 PM Evacuation orders for the entire area appear not to have been issued when the road was closed, or even soon thereafter. Maui officials claimed that text alerts were sent out, but that power and cellular disruptions prevented residents from receiving them. Some survivors have reported receiving no warning messages before the fire reached them, whereas at least one visitor reported receiving an emergency alert on their cellphone at 4:17 PM, 47 minutes after the road closure. Many local residents reported that they didn’t know the flames were approaching until the fire was nearby, and some said that they were informed by neighbors to evacuate. By 5:19 PM the fire had reached the waterfront in Lahaina, and by 5:33 PM people were seeking shelter in the water.

All this is quite surprising. Not only was there a fire in Maui in 2018 with similar problematic issues, but Hawaii has one of the most sophisticated tsunami warning systems in the world, fine-tuned since 1946, when a 17-meter tsunami hit the islands in the aftermath of the 1946 Aleutian tsunami ( 13 ), claiming 159 lives. Sirens are an integral part of the islands’ warning capabilities, yet local authorities defended their decision not to activate them in this fire. Mechanical sirens, as in Hawaii's All-Hazard Statewide Outdoor Warning Siren System produce a single tone, alerting people of an impending hazard, but provide no information about the nature of the hazard, its severity and, most importantly, protective action guidance. Note that the siren system is referred to as all-hazard, including wildfires, and claimed as the largest in the world.

To be effective, sirens need to be associated with a single clear protective action ( 14 ). In fact, Maui County had advised people that “[w]hen a siren tone is heard other than a scheduled test, tune into local Radio/TV/Cable stations for emergency information and instructions by official authorities. If you are in a low-lying area near the coastline; evacuate to high grounds, inland, or vertically to the 4th floor and higher of a concrete building”. In other words, Maui residents were given incomplete information—the reference to evacuating to high ground is likely for tsunami emergencies, yet there is no reference in the instructions to tsunamis. This confusing messaging is exactly what emergency managers are taught to avoid yet, in the aftermath, local authorities claimed they couldn’t have done anything differently.

A High Wind Watch issued on August 6 spoke of gale-force winds from the northeast on Maui until the night of August 8, as Hurricane Dora passed south of the Hawaiian Islands. It was upgraded to a High Wind Warning for Maui on August 7, with forecasts of gale-force winds from the east. Fire danger in Hawaii is weather-dominated, as vegetation grows rapidly with subtropical rainfall extremes, and dries rapidly during drought periods ( 15 ). On August 8, dry conditions on the island, strong easterly winds, and densely populated areas on the west coast of the island combined to create a dangerous situation. With hindsight, this combination may have fulfilled the criteria for issuing a warning of potential extreme fire behavior.

The Maui disaster triggered political backlash and legal battles. State and national levels came under scrutiny over their handling of the situation. The Maui County Emergency Management Administrator resigned in the weeks following the disaster. Three months following the fire, the Governor announced the creation of a $150 million recovery fund to help those who were injured in the fires or lost family members if they waive their right to file associated legal claims. The fund is initially paid for by the State of Hawaii, Maui County, Hawaiian Electric, and Kamehameha Schools, all of which have been named in legal actions over the wildfires.

Mati, Greece

Emergency and civil defense managers in Hawaii should have known better. Five years earlier, almost to the day, on July 23, 2018, a fairly small brush fire claimed 104 lives in Mati, Greece. Mati is a seaside community of about 5,000, approximately 30 km west of Athens, and a popular summer destination. On July 23, very strong winds descending from Mount Penteli at about 95 km/h (gusting to over 110 km/h) pushed the fire rapidly over dry vegetation, causing it to spread quickly, covering one-half mile in about half an hour from the nearest highway east of the town to the sea. In total, the fire took two hours to spread from where it started to the nearest beach—there is security camera video that captured the ignition. About 1,200 buildings were destroyed by the fire.

People were burned in their cars as they attempted to flee, while hundreds of people escaped to nearby seaside cliffs, hiked down to the beach, and were evacuated hours later from the water. A large number of firefighting resources had already been committed to a major incident about 80 km to the east, leaving limited resources available for the Mati fire.

In Mati, there was no warning, and people self-evacuated when flames were hundreds of feet away or did so at the encouragement of neighbors. Some police officers and firefighters reportedly went door-to-door to urge people to evacuate, but the lack of evacuation planning led to a series of traffic management failures, including, in one case, leading evacuees back toward the fire. The government and civil defense denied responsibility and claimed they couldn’t have done anything differently, even with hindsight ( 16 ). Despite the rapid spread of the fire, our calculations using agent-based evacuation models showed that, with a proper evacuation plan and public warning, the area could have been evacuated in time.

Unlike Maui, the legal and political fallout of the Mati disaster had historic proportions. At first, there were ad hominem attacks against scientists who spoke out about the lack of evacuation orders as contributing to the high death toll. This is also what happened in several countries in the first months of the COVID pandemic—governments were shooting the messengers. Eventually, however, the Alternate Minister for Citizen Protection, the Secretary General for Civil Protection, the Chief of the Hellenic Fire Service and the Chief of the Hellenic Police resigned. A series of negligence lawsuits were filed against the government by those who had lost loved ones and/or their homes. In addition, a four-year criminal investigation culminated with a trial which began on October 31, 2022, with twentyone senior elected and appointed officials facing felony charges. On April 29, 2024, six of the twentyone defendants were found guilty of negligent homicide. Some have argued that the handling of the aftermath of this fire led to the government losing national elections a year later.

The new government that took over rolled out the 112 Emergency Communications Service, following our relentless advocacy, editorials in major newspapers, and actual implementation work. The new service integrates a unified, multi-agency public safety answering capability, based on the European emergency number 1-1-2 with a nationwide, integrated public alert and warning system. This system is now used by the General Secretariat for Civil Protection (i.e. the country's national emergency management agency) to deliver effective life-saving information to the public. Alert messages are delivered primarily through cell phone SMS and additional communications pathways. In addition, new legislation voted in 2020 established an all-hazards planning approach, and municipalities are required to prepare a single emergency operations plan with hazard-specific and function-based annexes, as required. An evacuation annex is now mandatory.

The Maui and Mati fires bear eerie similarities. Dry vegetation and high winds, which pushed the fires downslope to densely populated areas with poor evacuation routes, and insufficient firefighting resources combined to cause both fires to quickly spread out of control. Preparedness failures, poor warning capabilities, and an apparent deficiency in evacuation planning led to the high death tolls. In both locales, people were burned in their cars, in Mati some because of a lack of evacuation planning that resulted in drivers being redirected back to the inferno, while in Lahaina possibly because of delays in evacuation and confusion with closed roads. In both cases, officials claimed that call centers were overwhelmed. Both events had political repercussions, and in both cases officials abdicated responsibility, claiming they wouldn’t have done anything differently even with hindsight.

WUI fires need not be so ghastly.

Rhodes, Greece

On July 18, 2023, a fire broke out on the Greek island of Rhodes. The fire was initially confined to the island's mountainous center, but spread to the south on the fourth day, fanned by strong, northerly seasonal winds. By July 23, the fire had reached the southern coast of the island, scorching more than 16,000 ha. With multiple fires burning simultaneously throughout the country, resources were stretched thin, despite the reinforcements sent by EU countries and the United States. The island is one of the most popular tourist destinations in the Mediterranean, exceeding 2 million visitors every year, and roughly the same size as Maui.

When it comes to evacuations, visitors are a vexing challenge, not least because of their limited proficiency in the host country's language, and their lack of familiarity with the area they are visiting. Yet, Greek authorities were able to evacuate over 20,000 local residents and tourists from the affected areas in Rhodes, within half a day, making it Greece's largest ever wildfire evacuation ( 17 , 18 ). The country's public alert and warning system was used to send multiple evacuation messages, as the fire approached residential areas. The slower overall rate of spread of the Rhodes fire may have allowed for the timely evacuation. However, the scale of the evacuation was considerable for Greece, and much more so for an island like Rhodes, and we that without a public warning system and a tried emergency management program, such as 112, the outcome would have been quite different. Ultimately, the fire devastated homes, hotels, and other businesses, yet the only casualty was the tragic loss of a volunteer firefighter. The efficacious crisis management in the aftermath bears noting, as most evacuees were sheltered in hotels or hosted by locals from night one. While at first tourist arrivals drastically fell, and hundreds of incoming flights were canceled, normalcy was restored within three weeks.

The wildland–urban interface challenge

More people living in WUI areas enhance ignition opportunities. Moritz et al. ( 19 ) identified several socioecological linkages and have focused on the impact to ecosystems by and their interdependencies with humans. While fires in remote areas are usually triggered by lightning storms, most wildfires appear to be human-caused ( 20 ). It is therefore hardly surprising that hot spots of fire activity have been identified in the WUI in the United States ( 21 ), and 95% of wildfires in Europe are reportedly caused by human negligence or arson ( 22 ). Radeloff et al. ( 23 ) state that the number of houses within wildfire perimentes thas doubled since the 1990s, due to both increased number of houses and larger burned areas. The number of wildfire-related deaths worldwide in the last four decades, based on the global EM-DAT database ( 24 ) shows that 10% of the fires appear responsible for 78% of the deaths (Figure 1 ). Furthermore, the single deadliest fire each year was responsible for 65% of all the deaths in that year, on average. In other words, a small number of fires produce the vast majority of deaths, while eight out of the ten deadliest fires occurred in the WUI.

Wildfire deaths per year, 1970–2023 ( 24 ).

Fires in the WUI pose unique challenges to fire suppression and emergency response. First, whereas urban and wildland firefighting tactics are fundamentally different, WUI fire suppression inherently involves both in close proximity, and tactical incompatibilities may appear. Urban fires will typically have multiple exposures with a fixed source, and direct fire attack using water or foam is the norm. On the other hand, wildland firefighting techniques very often involve indirect attack ( 25 , 26 ). For example, a fireline may be used to interrupt fuel continuity or a backfire may be employed to deprive the fire of oxygen. In the WUI, exposure usually involves a long flame front and multiple sources of ignition. In WUI fires, structural firefighters operate in close proximity with their wildland counterparts, which often creates challenges in communications and coordination, especially when they come from different organizations and jurisdictions.

Different firefighting tactics also mean different equipment. Wildland firefighting personal protective equipment is lighter because structural and atmospheric hazards are more limited in the open, and mobility is essential ( 26 ). Wildland firefighting engines are typically smaller and carry less equipment to remain mobile. This essential mobility in the wilderness may become a limiting factor, and possibly a source of danger, to firefighters in the WUI.

In addition, delayed fire reporting or increased response times increase fire risk to isolated homes and other structures ( 27 ). Fireline access can be challenging, as small backcountry roads and covered bridges might constrain anything but the smallest fire engines, and mutual aid resources could find navigating poorly charted rural roads a hindrance. Also, water supply may be scarce because of a lack of fire hydrants or failures during a power outage ( 28 ). This was the case in Lahaina, in both 2018 and 2023 and in the 2024 Viña del Mar fires in Chile, which took place while this paper was under review.

Second, evacuations are often required in WUI fires but are substantially different than organized evacuations implemented before river floods, landslides, and other natural hazards, or following accidents involving hazardous materials. Wildfire evacuations usually are decided and implemented on very short notice, notably because of difficulties in forecasting weather and predicting fire behavior. In Australia, in particular, there was debate about “stay and defend or go”, but the discussion seems to have settled in favor of “go” ( 29 ). Emergency planning helps alleviate some of that uncertainty. A small number of evacuation courses of action may be analyzed and included in emergency plans, offering options depending on the relative position of residential areas and the fire perimeter, as well as the current and projected weather, topography, and fuels. In Portugal, for example, predesigned evacuation routes and shelter locations are communicated to the public before disaster strikes, thus reducing clearance times when evacuations are warranted ( 30 ).

Regardless, many WUI areas have poor evacuee egress options, not only because of narrow, winding roads, but also traffic congestion ( 31 ). For instance, 23 people, including three seasonal firefighters, were trapped and perished while evacuating the village of Artemida, Greece during the 2007 fire south of ancient Olympia ( 32 ), over a narrow backcountry road that was the only option ( 33 ). In the 2018 Camp Fire in Northern California, staff evacuated patients from the local hospital in their own vehicles. On one occasion, the drive to safety out of the heavily wooded area allegedly took about three hours. This was a very difficult terrain for timely evacuations, nonetheless over 40,000 managed to evacuate. Alerts were reportedly not received by at least 50% of the residents, but completely without them the death toll would likely have been much higher than the 84 who perished. In another example, serious traffic congestion ensued when residents in West Kelowna, British Columbia were asked to evacuate during the 2015 Munt Law wildfire ( 34 ).

With this inadvertently rapid operational tempo, reducing the time between decision-making and the actual evacuation by providing people advanced notice is paramount. Mati and Maui and, to a lesser extent, Paradise—all three incidents were haunted by the lack or failure of public alert and warning systems ( 35 ).

Third, wildfires can rapidly spread out of control and increase in complexity. Large fires are among the most complex incidents, not least because of the geographic area involved, the large number of resources involved, organizational complexity, jurisdictional boundaries, weather, and difficulty in predicting fire spread ( 36–39 ). WUI fires add more layers of complexity, due to the threat to life, property and critical infrastructures, as well as political sensitivities. For example, it has been reported that, during the Mati fires, politicians were calling the fire department asking for prioritization of resources to favor friends and relatives. Climate change is one of the factors increasing the potential for extreme fire behavior, therefore making firefighting less routine while making fires themselves more routine.

Fourth, wildland fires are intricately related to critical infrastructure and form complex feedback loops which lead to compound events ( 40 , 41 ). The risk to energy production and generation assets and the power grid increases with wildfire incidence. Power lines can ignite wildfires through a variety of mechanisms, and fires can damage power utility assets, causing widespread power outages ( 42 ). California's largest utility, Pacific Gas and Electric, pleaded guilty to manslaughter charges and filed for bankruptcy in early 2019, accepting responsibility for its downed power lines that triggered the 2018 Camp Fire, allegedly the costliest natural disaster in that year worldwide. Hawaiian Electric is currently facing lawsuits for alleged negligence in the Maui fires. On the other end, in Mati, the country's national electricity corporation steadfastly refused to entertain even the suggestion that one of its power lines near the point of ignition may have triggered the fire, and thus far has gotten away with it.

The cascading effects of wildland fires increase agent-generated demands and complicate response-generated demands ( 40 , 43 ). Almost any critical infrastructure asset may be affected by wildland fires, even water treatment plants. Fires can melt underground water pipes, thus affecting firefighting, and they can destroy communication towers and power substations. Operators then need to find workarounds or make temporary repairs to restore service to priority customers, typically other critical infrastructure systems. At the same time, governments need to work with operators and affected critical customers to provide backup solutions. A vicious circle ensues, as infrastructure damage delays response and short-term recovery efforts, which in turn slow down restoration and repair ( 44 ).

Climate change and wildfire risk

Wildland fires have an intricate relationship with climate change. Bowman et al. ( 45 ) estimated that wildland fires are responsible for 19% of the anthropogenic radiative forcing. Climate change does yield higher temperatures and drier conditions that prime the landscape for fires to catch and spread more easily. Flannigan et al. ( 46 ) estimate that fire seasons will last 20 days per year longer in the northern high latitudes by the end of the century. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report ( 47 ) notes that fire weather is expected to increase in many parts of the world and, a 2-degree global warming scenario is projected to increase burned area globally by 35%. These estimates are corroborated by regional studies, which point to an increase in the number of human-induced wildfires, burned area, and wildfire risk ( 21 , 48–56 ).

These scenarios are hardly fictitious, as climate change is already increasing wildfire risk around the world. Fire-prone areas are extending poleward to areas previously unaffected. Jolly et al. (2015) found that, by 2013, fire seasons had lengthened in about one-quarter of the Earth's vegetated surface, resulting in an increase of the global average fire season length by 18.7%, compared to 1979. They also estimated that, between 1979 and 2013, the burnable area affected by longer fire weather seasons had doubled. Furthermore, the frequency of long fire-weather seasons increased across more than half of the global vegetated area between 1996 and 2013, compared with 1979–1996. Regional studies corroborate these global findings by showing an increase in the number of fires and the burned area during fire seasons, as well as in the size, extent, and frequency of large fires ( 49 , 56–61 ). Consensus is emerging that the conventional suppression-centered wildfire and forest management strategies applied so far no longer efficiently address megafires, variously defined, but usually as fires that burn over 40,000 hectares.

Furthermore, overnight burning events (OBE), defined as fires that burn through the night, have recently been changing what used to be a familiar diurnal fire cycle. Luo et al. ( 62 ) found that 20% of the 1084 fires burning over 1000 hectares in the period 2017–2020 were OBEs, peaked in the summer, and were primarily associated with droughts. Balch et al. ( 50 ) claimed that, worldwide over the past 30 years, flammable nights have increased by seven, across all burnable lands, and found that night fires are about 7% more intense, while the vapor pressure deficit has increased by 25%. For the western United States, they estimated an 11-day increase over the same period. There is little doubt that there has been an acceleration of OBEs.

Figure 2 depicts megafires between 2012 and 2022 in Europe, Canada, and the United States, compiled out of three different datasets. The European Forest Fire Information System is operated by the European Commission Joint Research Center. Burned areas are estimated from satellite imagery, and information was available until 2023. Natural Resources Canada maintains the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System, based on a compilation of information provided by Canadian fire management agencies including provinces, territories, and Parks Canada. At the time of this writing, data was available only until 2021. In the United States, the National Interagency Fire Center Open Data Site provides a wealth of wildfire-related geospatial information. This dataset includes wildland fires reported to the Integrated Reporting of Wildland Fire Information incident service until 2023.

Megafires in Europe ( 63 ), Canada ( 64 ) and the United States ( 65 ) between 2012 and 2022.

One conclusion from the map in Figure 2 is the lack of a unified system for reporting wildfires around the world. Wildfire data collection around the world is a highly localized endeavor. Data collection techniques vary widely, from the compilation of reports from fire services to highly sophisticated uses of satellite imagery. Although most G20 countries publish quasi-regularly annual wildfire statistics in their official languages, data on individual fires is generally scarce. To make matters worse, there is hardly any consistency in either content or the granularity of the information reported across countries.

Finally, although the short- and long-term effects of wildfires on forests vary with the ability of tree species to regenerate after fires, both the size and costs of wildland fire suppression operations are growing. The increase in cost is partially driven by the high cost of protecting property in the WUI, and urbanization will drive costs even higher. Wildfire suppression costs in the United States have increased fourfold from 1985 to 2016 ( 21 ).

Wading into uncharted waters, governments have mobilized funding for improving suppression capabilities, with aerial firefighting absorbing the lion's share. Improvements in preparedness tend to follow particularly destructive fires or very active fire seasons. For example, following an increase in wildfire incidence across EU countries, the European Commission established “rescEU”, for procuring fixed and rotary wing firefighting aircraft, to create a last-resort capability buffer. Thus, rescEU's aerial firefighting fleet was doubled in 2023, reaching 28 aircraft in 2023, with 12 additional aircraft on order ( 66 , 67 ).

Greece has relied on a combined aerial firefighting fleet of nationally owned and leased aircraft. The country found itself in a double predicament, facing increasingly devastating fire seasons, just as it was getting out of a deep financial crisis, which had essentially prevented the acquisition of expensive assets. It has been progressively leasing more firefighting helicopters and airplanes. Following a series of devastating fire seasons, in 2020, the government announced “Aegis”, a behemoth two-billion-euro program, a third of which will serve to essentially double the country's aerial fighting fleet. In 2022, the Hellenic Fire Service also instituted helitack crews, that is, teams of firefighters transported by helicopter to poorly accessible wildfire flare ups.

France faced a particularly active season in 2022. The total burnt area was 72,000 hectares, or almost five times that of 2021 and about three times that of 2017. Preparing for 2023, it added nine additional fixed and rotary wing aircraft to its 38. It also increased the number of wildland fire-engine strike teams from 44 in 2022 to 51 in 2023 ( 68 ). According to the US Congressional Budget Office ( 69 ), the federal government spent $17.5 billion on wildfire suppression and disaster assistance between 2016 and 2020. In California, following expanding fire seasons and a series of devastating fires, the Department of Forestry and Fire Protection recently acquired 12 new firefighting helicopters and is planning to add seven air tankers to its fleet ( 70 ).

On the other hand, wildfire mitigation and prevention have traditionally received less attention and funding. For instance, the Greek Forest Service had been understaffed, and activities poorly coordinated and underfunded, for decades ( 71 ). Feo et al. ( 72 ) noted a “long history of underinvestment in prevention and mitigation” in California. These are examples of how voters often reward politicians for delivering disaster relief, but not for investing in preparedness, and even less so for mitigation and adaptation, hence governments underinvest ( 73 ).

Moritz et al. ( 19 ) have argued that “cultural and institutional systems affect public response to wildfire, as do psychological and social dynamics”. While true overall, the death toll in recent WUI fires suggests the public is inching towards favoring evacuation. Recent research suggests that public education can motivate voter support in favor of mitigation and preparedness ( 74 ). Anecdotal wildfire policy examples suggest that climate change education in the last few years may have helped to sway public opinion in favor of wildfire mitigation. For instance, in preparation for the 2022 fire season, the Greek government spent 72 million euros, equivalent to the cost of two medium-sized firefighting airplanes, in two nationwide wildfire hazard mitigation programs, involving (i) fuel reduction and clearing and (ii) forest thinning; such an investment was unthinkable five years earlier. It also reorganized the Forest Service to improve coordination and funding. In 2020 and 2021, the State of California appropriated $2.7 billion over a four-year period to wildfire prevention and mitigation, a number which dwarfs the Federal Government's $4 billion through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act ( 75 ).

With rising fire activity brought on by climate change and human development, and increased exposure of people and property in WUI areas, it is unlikely that today's suppression-focused paradigm will remain sustainable, possibly not even in the near future. Here, we present a new paradigm in wildfire risk management that goes beyond suppression and even mitigation, by integrating science-based land management.

First, in light of the projected increase in fire activity and decades of unmitigated biomass accumulation in forests around the world, maintaining adequate fire suppression capabilities, even through mutual aid agreements, may no longer be a fiscally responsible option. On the other hand, the cost-to-benefit ratios of wildfire hazard mitigation measures, including retrofitting buildings to meet or exceed building code standards, range from ¼ to ½ ( 76 ). Communities should consider mitigation strategies that have worked for other hazards, such as insurance and drastically limiting development in the WUI. Fuel treatment strategies, such as prescribed burning, fuel reduction and clearing, and forest thinning, have all shown potential in mitigating wildland fire risk ( 2 , 77 ). In addition, retrofitting properties in the WUI to resist fire hazards has paid off time and again ( 78 ). For instance, a photograph of a 100-year-old wooden house in Lahaina became viral in the aftermath of the August 8 fire, as it was left unscathed while surrounded by piles of charred debris (Figure 3 ). It was later revealed that the owners had retrofitted the home to mitigate wildfire risk. Furthermore, learning from indigenous fire stewardship practices can help mitigate wildfires and increase biodiversity ( 79 ).

Red-roofed Lahaina home left unscathed by the August 8 fire (Source: Getty Images).

Nevertheless, even with increased investment, implementing hazard mitigation strategies and developing additional capabilities will take time. Therefore, improving wildfire response is still needed. Given resource constraints, communities will likely have to prioritize the development of both suppression and mitigation capabilities by accounting for the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems. Multi-year, integrated wildfire risk management plans extending beyond electoral cycles can help reduce the sensitivity of risk management to shifting political short-term priorities and ensure sustainable strategies. Governments need to avoid the established pitfalls of short-sighted, political decision-making and policy choices shaped by what just happened instead of planning for future expectations ( 80 ).

Second, the growing number of megafires indicates that land management strategies need to account for the impact of climate change on forest ecosystems, as well as local effects, such as the rate at which biomass re-accumulates. Governments need to work closer with the forest products industry to integrate land management and wildfire risk management policies. Heterogeneity in vegetation type, age, and structure can help ecosystem resilience to climate change and reduction of biodiversity loss. Fire hazard mitigation measures can be adapted to deliver the needed heterogeneity, for example, by diversifying the conditions of prescribed burns ( 19 ). Moreover, novel uses of wood products and creating markets for excess biomass and smallwood removal and utilization can create local economic development opportunities, while increasing the ecosystem's resilience to wildfires. Several funding mechanisms are now being considered to support appropriate public/private partnerships. Examples include green bonds and more complex schemes, such as partial subsidization of economic opportunities, contingent on the implementation of wildfire mitigation or post-wildfire restoration measures, including landslide and flood mitigation.

Third, in terms of crisis management, a fundamental shift is needed from a mindset of fire suppression to one of emergency response. The increased exposure of people reinforces the need for community-based evacuation planning. Evacuation plans identify transportation routes and ways to increase evacuation throughput (such as contraflow), transportation modes, including mass transit, and shelter locations, so that emergency managers know how little time they have to issue evacuation orders. It is thus clear that public alert and warning systems are becoming an increasingly critical link in the process. These systems provide emergency information to the public, and save lives when disasters are about to strike. Early disaster research ( 81 , 82 ) highlighted that to be effective warning messages need to be received from multiple communication pathways and issued from credible sources. Modern public alert and warning systems enable emergency management agencies to disseminate information through multiple pathways, including mobile and landline phones, radio, television, highway variable-message signs and others. The combination of evacuation plans, public education before disaster strikes, and public alert and warning systems can create a powerful defense against wildland fires and can reduce the loss of life.

Because of the inherent complexity in combining all those technologies, these systems should be tested to the limit of their abilities at regular intervals. In addition to the obvious maintenance benefit, these tests are opportunities for informing the public about the capabilities of alert and warning systems, as well teaching individual and family self-protection in disasters. In the United States, nationwide tests of the Emergency Alert System (which is based on radio and television, cable systems, and satellite radio and television) and the Wireless Emergency Alert (WEA) system, (which delivers alerts from cellular towers to mobile devices using a one-to-many technology called Cell Broadcast (CB)), they have been required no less than every three years since 2015. Nonetheless, the third nationwide test on October 4, 2023 (Figure 4 , left), which came after the Maui catastrophe ( 83 ), was treated by the major news media everywhere as if it was the first ever. In one way it was, because people paid attention to it and could not have opted out, as was the case with the second test message. For the record, the first test was conducted on October 3, 2018, using the Presidential Alert classification and the second on August 11, 2021, using the State/Local WEA Test classification, which requires users to opt in to receive the test alert.

Screenshots of the 2023 nationwide WEA test in the United States (left) and the first nationwide Cell Broadcast message ever in Greece, in 2020 (right). An estimated 300 national messages have followed since then this 11 March 2020 first CB message.

As of December 2018, and likely following the realization that lives could have been saved in the Mati fires earlier that year had there been warnings, European Union countries have been legally required to put in place public alert and warning systems using location-based SMS, or similar technologies, no later than June 2022. However, there are no testing requirements. Although such systems were already used in several European countries before that deadline, Greece was one of the first countries to use Cell Broadcast for wildfire evacuations. Tests are not legally required in Greece as in the United States, but its first nationwide alert was sent on March 11, 2020 (Figure 4 , right), in response to mounting cases of COVID-19, and served as a demonstration of the capability.

Warning and evacuation processes also need to account for populations with access and functional needs. Effective systems can alert populations with disabilities or other special needs, include those with limited proficiency in the main language(s) used in alert and warning messages and, ultimately, anyone who may have difficulties obtaining alert and warning SMS and information.

A combination of forward and reverse planning is required to prepare such plans ( 84 , 85 ). Forward planning builds the evacuation process by describing potential decisions and actions sequentially. Plans should address both agent-generated demands (for example, transportation and shelter) and response-generated demands (for example, information management and logistics). Then, reverse planning determines the time required to complete each task, given the resources that can realistically be made available. Working backwards and using time estimates and task dependencies, emergency managers can identify the times required to complete evacuations once the decision is made. The combination of forward and reverse planning informs the development of time or land-benchmark triggers for evacuation decision-making. For example, there will be evacuations regardless of conditions, if a fire reaches a particular critical location, or if there is less than x minutes for the fire to spread from its point of ignition to the nearest shoreline.

Fundamentally, hard as it may be in practice, evacuations need to be completed before the flame front spreads close enough to populated areas. Fire smoke may cause serious injury to sensitive individuals; this needs to be accounted for as well. Evacuation modeling is necessary to inform evacuation planning and decision-making. It can provide estimates of the time needed to evacuate areas threatened by wildfires, as well as pedestrian and vehicle traffic flow rates, in different scenarios and allows analysis of different courses of action ( 86 , 87 ). As was done post-facto in Mati ( 88 , 89 ), combined with wildfire spread simulation, evacuation modeling can be a powerful tool in setting triggers for evacuation decision-making ( 90 ). Stefanakis et al. ( 91 ) used an AI statistical model of a tsunami “experiment” constantly updated as new results arrived, then future query points were selected according to the objectives, until achieved. In this manner, they identified worst-case scenarios that were previously only obvious with 100% hindsight. Such active experimental design and machine learning algorithms can reduce the exceptionally large number of numerical simulations needed to identify time-optimal escape routes in advance, particularly in the presence of projectiles (embers), which change the spread dynamics. Evacuation modeling is also a powerful tool in public outreach, as people at risk can expect how much time they really have. Coupled with avatars, people can visualize themselves evacuating, at different speeds, temperatures, and visibilities. Such an approach could become the gold standard for planning evacuations and educating people.

Fourth, science and technology can be leveraged to improve strategic, operational, and tactical emergency planning. Evaluating variables, such as meteorological conditions, fire danger, fire location, time of day, and fire size at the time of dispatch are now increasingly used in setting dispatch levels and resource estimates, along with lessons learned from previous fires and institutional memory. Machine learning, again, can streamline these processes. For example, Lam et al. ( 92 ) show how it can best medium-range numerical weather predictions (NWP) forecasts very quickly. Introducing AI fire prediction operationally remains vexing, given the varied locations, diverse data, and one-of-a-kind fires, even in a single locale.

Even when such timely predictions materialize, resource management should become more dynamic and anticipatory through the employment of other tools. For instance, mutual aid agreements can be activated preemptively based on risk estimates. In 2023, Greece activated the EU Civil Protection Mechanism (the European equivalent to the Emergency Management Assistance Compact in the United States) to preposition fire engines and hand crews from other countries in high-risk areas, during the hottest and driest summer months. The Hellenic Fire Service hires seasonal firefighters every year, aiming to increase its force by 10% during the “hot” season ( 8 ). These actions are particularly useful in islands, which present additional tactical challenges, not the least of which is related to their insularity and limited options for evacuation. Emergency management worldwide needs to consider the option of evacuating to beaches, which has made fires on Greek islands far less deadly than the mainland.

Earlier, we discussed how advances in forestry and biology can support integrated management of wildfire risk, how cutting-edge communications systems enable alert and warning messages to reach millions of people in seconds, and how evacuation modeling can support emergency planning and rapid decision-making.

Satellite images are a staple in many crisis management centers. Landsat has been around for decades, but the time windows between images do not allow for effective proactive modeling. Algorithms convert observations of the Earth's surface in the visible and infrared domains from meteorological and other satellites into measurements of fire hot spots and assessments of wildfire impacts in near real-time ( 93–95 ). Recently, advances in earth observation have allowed scientists, at least in Europe and North America, to track wildfires and even calculate fire spread, every twelve hours, based on satellite imagery ( 96 ). NASA's Fire Events Data Suite is claimed to provide more frequent monitoring of fire activity, growth, and behavior than has ever been available ( 59 ). In a significant breakthrough, private operating satellite constellations now claim they are able to provide end users with predictions of the spread of wildfires and floods, informed through data assimilation, as images become available from successive satellite passes. In one example, a satellite constellation of Portugal and Spain, possibly to be augmented by Greek satellites, beginning (it's been claimed) in 2024, will provide high resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images about every four hours. The consortium will also provide estimates of the projected evolution of the fire perimeter, until the next set of images becomes available. When augmented by thermal imaging and comprehensive vegetation spatial distributions, the evolution predictions can improve further and can become game changers in megafire suppression. Once such analyses become standard, AI fire modeling could become routine, given that there will be uniform image datasets associated with specific weather parameters to mine from.

Moreover, artificial intelligence is already in use to streamline real-time or near real-time detection of wildfires in poorly accessible areas ( 97 , 98 ). State-of-the-art robots provide situational awareness, and autonomous systems operating closer to the fireline are under development for improving information management ( 99 ). The integration of satellite imagery with feeds from other sources, such as thermal, surveillance and traffic cameras and weather stations, they can vastly accelerate information management in the Emergency Operations Centers of the next decade.

Climate change, increased development in the WUI, and a long history of emphasis on fire suppression over hazard mitigation has increased wildfire risk worldwide. Governments are exploring the issue, but spending is mostly geared toward fire suppression. Here, we propose a long-term approach, incorporating wildfire risk management in wider-scope forest land management policies and strategies. The latter need to account for the impact of climate change and hazard mitigation on forest ecosystems. Improving suppression capabilities is like performing CPR on a cardiac arrest patient: it buys needed time until a more sustainable strategy takes effect, but will not, in and by itself, suffice for longevity. A renewed focus and increased spending on hazard mitigation and fire prevention is also required to stem the impact of megafires threatening human settlements and ecosystems in the WUI. Furthermore, a fundamental shift is needed from a mindset of fire suppression to one of emergency response. Evacuation planning supported by public alert and warning capabilities always saves lives, and more so with prior planning. Last, we urge the wildland fire community to invest in the uptake of scientific breakthroughs and new technologies, including machine learning and earth observation, to help improve decision-making and, ultimately, save more lives. Until then, in at-risk WUI areas, everyone needs to understand that a threatening wildfire could happen anytime from spring to fall and that they may need to leave immediately.

The authors declare no funding.

Both authors designed and performed research, analyzed the data, and wrote the paper.

The following data were used in the preparation of this manuscript:

[dataset] CRED/UCLouvain, n.d., “EM-DAT”. Brussels, Belgium: University of Louvain. www.emdat.be .

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